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On July 14, the US Department of Labor will release the US June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time today, including the June unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate, as well as the June seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month rate and unadjusted core CPI year-over-year rate. This may trigger market volatility.

[Preview: US June CPI Data to Be Released Today at 20:30]On July 14, the US Department of Labor will release the US June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time today, including the June unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate, as well as the June seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month rate and unadjusted core CPI year-over-year rate. This may trigger market volatility.

Preview: US June CPI Data to Be Released Today at 20:30

On July 14, Bitcoin fell over 2% in the past 24 hours, now trading at about $62,380. Market expectations for the Fed to raise rates as early as July have clearly heated up, with money markets pricing in about a 50% probability of a rate hike this month, up from just about 10% a few days ago. The change in expectations stems from Fed Governor Waller stating that officials may need to raise rates to control price pressures. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield subsequently rose to 4.29%, the highest level since early last year. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a sharp rise in oil prices have also intensified inflation concerns, with WTI crude oil futures rising from $67 per barrel at the beginning of the month to nearly $80. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the June consumer price index on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect overall CPI to rise less than 4% year-over-year, with both headline and core inflation possibly seeing their first month-over-month decline since January; in May they were 4.2% and 2.9%, respectively. However, recent oil price increases may cause the market to view the data as a lagging indicator. If inflation proves stickier, it could further strengthen rate hike concerns. The market will then focus on Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. ING analysts believe Powell can emphasize that inflation expectations remain relatively moderate and that there is sufficient basis to keep rates unchanged; even if a rate hike eventually occurs, it may be reversed later, and the magnitude of future rate cuts could still be greater than that of rate hikes.

[Analysis: Fed Rate Hike Expectations for July Rise, Bitcoin Falls]On July 14, Bitcoin fell over 2% in the past 24 hours, now trading at about $62,380. Market expectations for the Fed to raise rates as early as July have clearly heated up, with money markets pricing in about a 50% probability of a rate hike this month, up from just about 10% a few days ago. The change in expectations stems from Fed Governor Waller stating that officials may need to raise rates to control price pressures. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield subsequently rose to 4.29%, the highest level since early last year. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a sharp rise in oil prices have also intensified inflation concerns, with WTI crude oil futures rising from $67 per barrel at the beginning of the month to nearly $80. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the June consumer price index on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect overall CPI to rise less than 4% year-over-year, with both headline and core inflation possibly seeing their first month-over-month decline since January; in May they were 4.2% and 2.9%, respectively. However, recent oil price increases may cause the market to view the data as a lagging indicator. If inflation proves stickier, it could further strengthen rate hike concerns. The market will then focus on Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. ING analysts believe Powell can emphasize that inflation expectations remain relatively moderate and that there is sufficient basis to keep rates unchanged; even if a rate hike eventually occurs, it may be reversed later, and the magnitude of future rate cuts could still be greater than that of rate hikes.

Analysis: Fed Rate Hike Expectations for July Rise, Bitcoin Falls

On July 14, according to Cboe data, the U.S. stock VIX fear index currently stands at 17.16, compared to the previous close of 15.03, up 2.13 points or 14.17% in a single day. However, it remains within the normal volatility range and has not entered the panic zone. Separately, according to alternative data, the crypto fear index today is temporarily at 22 (compared to 26 yesterday), returning to the 'extreme fear' zone.

[U.S. Stock VIX Fear Index Rises 14.17% in a Single Day, Crypto Returns to 'Extreme Fear' Zone]On July 14, according to Cboe data, the U.S. stock VIX fear index currently stands at 17.16, compared to the previous close of 15.03, up 2.13 points or 14.17% in a single day. However, it remains within the normal volatility range and has not entered the panic zone. Separately, according to alternative data, the crypto fear index today is temporarily at 22 (compared to 26 yesterday), returning to the 'extreme fear' zone.

U.S. Stock VIX Fear Index Rises 14.17% in a Single Day, Crypto Returns to 'Extreme Fear' Zone

According to Beating monitoring, SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son predicts that by 2040, global data centers will require 3 terawatts of electricity. In the short term, the increase in power demand will mainly rely on natural gas. About 15 years later, nuclear fusion may become a cheaper, cleaner, and safer alternative. This is not just a verbal judgment. SoftBank Vision Fund 2 has consecutively invested in the U.S. nuclear fusion company Helion, participating in its Series F round in 2025 and Series G round in 2026. Helion's latest round raised $465 million, valuing the company at $15.5 billion. Nuclear fusion has not yet achieved commercial power generation, and there is still significant uncertainty about whether it can provide large-scale power on schedule. Faced with doubts about the AI bubble, Son called it an "extremely stupid question." He believes that the huge investment in data centers will eventually yield returns.

[Masayoshi Son Bets on Nuclear Fusion to Power AI; SoftBank Invests in Two Rounds]According to Beating monitoring, SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son predicts that by 2040, global data centers will require 3 terawatts of electricity. In the short term, the increase in power demand will mainly rely on natural gas. About 15 years later, nuclear fusion may become a cheaper, cleaner, and safer alternative. This is not just a verbal judgment. SoftBank Vision Fund 2 has consecutively invested in the U.S. nuclear fusion company Helion, participating in its Series F round in 2025 and Series G round in 2026. Helion's latest round raised $465 million, valuing the company at $15.5 billion. Nuclear fusion has not yet achieved commercial power generation, and there is still significant uncertainty about whether it can provide large-scale power on schedule. Faced with doubts about the AI bubble, Son called it an "extremely stupid question." He believes that the huge investment in data centers will eventually yield returns.

Masayoshi Son Bets on Nuclear Fusion to Power AI; SoftBank Invests in Two Rounds

On July 14, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak believes that capital expenditure on AI data centers by big tech companies has not yet peaked, and market concerns about a slowdown in AI investment may be premature. The firm has raised its capital expenditure forecasts for Amazon, Meta, and Google, predicting that AI data center spending by major platforms such as Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and SpaceX will reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2027 and further rise to about $1.4 trillion by 2028. Morgan Stanley said that supply chain bottlenecks, increasing demand for computing power, and rising costs of key components are driving hyperscalers to accelerate their construction pace. The firm expects Meta's capital expenditure could reach about $250 billion by 2028, Amazon about $318 billion, and Google about $350 billion by 2027. Nowak remains optimistic about the long-term AI investment returns for these companies and maintains positive ratings on Meta and Amazon.

[Morgan Stanley: AI Capital Expenditure Still on Upward Trajectory, Meta, Amazon, Google Spending Forecasts Revised Upward]On July 14, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak believes that capital expenditure on AI data centers by big tech companies has not yet peaked, and market concerns about a slowdown in AI investment may be premature. The firm has raised its capital expenditure forecasts for Amazon, Meta, and Google, predicting that AI data center spending by major platforms such as Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and SpaceX will reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2027 and further rise to about $1.4 trillion by 2028. Morgan Stanley said that supply chain bottlenecks, increasing demand for computing power, and rising costs of key components are driving hyperscalers to accelerate their construction pace. The firm expects Meta's capital expenditure could reach about $250 billion by 2028, Amazon about $318 billion, and Google about $350 billion by 2027. Nowak remains optimistic about the long-term AI investment returns for these companies and maintains positive ratings on Meta and Amazon.

Morgan Stanley: AI Capital Expenditure Still on Upward Trajectory, Meta, Amazon, Google Spending Forecasts Revised Upward

On July 14, the Bank of Korea released data on Tuesday showing that despite a tech-driven rise in the South Korean stock market, foreign investors continued to net sell Korean stocks in June for the fifth consecutive month. According to the central bank's data, overseas investors net sold a combined $30.72 billion in Korean stocks and bonds in June, following a net sale of $26.15 billion in May. Foreign investors have maintained a net selling stance since February. The Bank of Korea attributed the expanded net selling by foreign investors to weakening investor sentiment amid concerns over overheating investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The bank added that as the South Korean stock market rose, foreign investors reduced their stock holdings during portfolio rebalancing, further accelerating net capital outflows. (Jin Shi)

[Foreign Investors Net Sell Korean Stocks for Fifth Consecutive Month]On July 14, the Bank of Korea released data on Tuesday showing that despite a tech-driven rise in the South Korean stock market, foreign investors continued to net sell Korean stocks in June for the fifth consecutive month. According to the central bank's data, overseas investors net sold a combined $30.72 billion in Korean stocks and bonds in June, following a net sale of $26.15 billion in May. Foreign investors have maintained a net selling stance since February. The Bank of Korea attributed the expanded net selling by foreign investors to weakening investor sentiment amid concerns over overheating investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The bank added that as the South Korean stock market rose, foreign investors reduced their stock holdings during portfolio rebalancing, further accelerating net capital outflows. (Jin Shi)

Foreign Investors Net Sell Korean Stocks for Fifth Consecutive Month

On July 14, according to Trader T monitoring, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $15.34 million yesterday.

[US Spot Ethereum ETF Had Net Outflow of $15.34 Million Yesterday]On July 14, according to Trader T monitoring, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $15.34 million yesterday.

US Spot Ethereum ETF Had Net Outflow of $15.34 Million Yesterday

On July 14, the Korea Exchange initiated a suspension of program trading on the KOSDAQ. (Jin Shi)

[Korea Exchange Halts Program Trading on KOSDAQ]On July 14, the Korea Exchange initiated a suspension of program trading on the KOSDAQ. (Jin Shi)

Korea Exchange Halts Program Trading on KOSDAQ

On July 14, South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 4.00% intraday, currently at 6534.34 points. SK Hynix fell over 7%. (Jin Shi)

[South Korea's KOSPI Index Plunges 4.00% Intraday, Now at 6534.34 Points]On July 14, South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 4.00% intraday, currently at 6534.34 points. SK Hynix fell over 7%. (Jin Shi)

South Korea's KOSPI Index Plunges 4.00% Intraday, Now at 6534.34 Points

The Federal Reserve is expected to release an interest rate decision at 14:00 ET on September 21. 16 investment banks are looking forward to the Fed's interest rate decision and are expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, including Citigroup, UBS, Goldman Sachs, etc. Bank of America said forecasts for a Fed rate hike could indicate waning confidence in a soft landing.

Detail

【Three hours to go before the Fed's interest rate decision】The Federal Reserve is expected to release an interest rate decision at 14:00 ET on September 21. 16 investment banks are looking forward to the Fed's interest rate decision and are expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, including Citigroup, UBS, Goldman Sachs, etc. Bank of America said forecasts for a Fed rate hike could indicate waning confidence in a soft landing.

Three hours to go before the Fed's interest rate decision

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Three hours to go before the Fed's interest rate decision

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