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On June 17, the G7 issued a statement affirming their support and willingness to contribute to the implementation of the U.S.-Iran agreement. They reiterated that the right to unrestricted passage and fee-free access is the cornerstone of international trade. An initiative led by France and the UK can play a significant role in protecting merchant vessels, reassuring shipping companies, and assisting in confirming the removal of all mines, thereby facilitating the restoration of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. They strongly support the development of a robust and comprehensive diplomatic follow-up agreement based on the memorandum of understanding reached by U.S. President Trump, aimed at bringing peace and security to all countries in the Middle East. They emphasized that relevant negotiations must be conducted to address Iran's threats in the region and beyond, ensuring that it can never acquire nuclear weapons. They agreed that such negotiations would benefit from the active participation of relevant regional and international partners, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). They reiterated that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons. They are committed to accelerating the diversification of energy supply routes to reduce global dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and to increase their energy reserves. They welcomed Canada's significant additional capacity for the global market in the coming years.

[G7 Reiterates Iran Must Never Acquire Nuclear Weapons]On June 17, the G7 issued a statement affirming their support and willingness to contribute to the implementation of the U.S.-Iran agreement. They reiterated that the right to unrestricted passage and fee-free access is the cornerstone of international trade. An initiative led by France and the UK can play a significant role in protecting merchant vessels, reassuring shipping companies, and assisting in confirming the removal of all mines, thereby facilitating the restoration of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. They strongly support the development of a robust and comprehensive diplomatic follow-up agreement based on the memorandum of understanding reached by U.S. President Trump, aimed at bringing peace and security to all countries in the Middle East. They emphasized that relevant negotiations must be conducted to address Iran's threats in the region and beyond, ensuring that it can never acquire nuclear weapons. They agreed that such negotiations would benefit from the active participation of relevant regional and international partners, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). They reiterated that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons. They are committed to accelerating the diversification of energy supply routes to reduce global dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and to increase their energy reserves. They welcomed Canada's significant additional capacity for the global market in the coming years.

G7 Reiterates Iran Must Never Acquire Nuclear Weapons

On June 17, Reuters reported that sources indicate the US-Iran framework agreement includes a plan to establish a $300 billion private fund to stimulate investment in Iran. The $300 billion Iranian investment fund can only begin operations after the final agreement is signed. This fund is a private investment vehicle that does not involve government funds and is unrelated to negotiations regarding Iran's sovereign assets frozen overseas. The fund's plan has already received funding commitments from over half of companies in the US, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America, and Africa.

[US-Iran Framework Agreement Proposes $300 Billion Private Fund to Stimulate Investment in Iran]On June 17, Reuters reported that sources indicate the US-Iran framework agreement includes a plan to establish a $300 billion private fund to stimulate investment in Iran. The $300 billion Iranian investment fund can only begin operations after the final agreement is signed. This fund is a private investment vehicle that does not involve government funds and is unrelated to negotiations regarding Iran's sovereign assets frozen overseas. The fund's plan has already received funding commitments from over half of companies in the US, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America, and Africa.

US-Iran Framework Agreement Proposes $300 Billion Private Fund to Stimulate Investment in Iran

On June 17, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is currently reported at 99.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is at 0.6%. At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its rate decision and economic projections; at 2:30 AM, Fed Chairman Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference.

[Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in June at 99.4%]On June 17, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is currently reported at 99.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is at 0.6%. At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its rate decision and economic projections; at 2:30 AM, Fed Chairman Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in June at 99.4%

On June 17, a bipartisan group of senators led by Cynthia Lummis sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, urging the department to preserve state regulatory authority over certain stablecoin issuers while developing implementation rules for the GENIUS stablecoin legislation. The GENIUS Act was signed into law last year, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring that stablecoins be fully backed by U.S. dollars or similarly high-liquid assets, and mandating annual audits for issuers with a market capitalization exceeding $50 billion, while also setting rules for offshore issuance. The legislation allows stablecoin issuers with a market capitalization of no more than $10 billion to be regulated at the state level, provided that the relevant state regulatory frameworks are 'substantially similar' to federal requirements. The senators expressed concern that the rules previously proposed by the Treasury did not clearly outline the timeline and standards for state regulatory framework applications, reviews, and certifications, creating uncertainty for states. The letter noted that legislative cycles vary significantly across states, with some states even adopting a biennial legislative cycle, thus necessitating a flexible and continuously open certification mechanism to ensure that states can apply for certification as demand arises, rather than being constrained by timing mismatches that limit innovation and competition.

[Bipartisan Senators Led by Lummis Urge U.S. Treasury to Maintain State-Level Stablecoin Regulatory Authority Under GENIUS Act]On June 17, a bipartisan group of senators led by Cynthia Lummis sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, urging the department to preserve state regulatory authority over certain stablecoin issuers while developing implementation rules for the GENIUS stablecoin legislation. The GENIUS Act was signed into law last year, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring that stablecoins be fully backed by U.S. dollars or similarly high-liquid assets, and mandating annual audits for issuers with a market capitalization exceeding $50 billion, while also setting rules for offshore issuance. The legislation allows stablecoin issuers with a market capitalization of no more than $10 billion to be regulated at the state level, provided that the relevant state regulatory frameworks are 'substantially similar' to federal requirements. The senators expressed concern that the rules previously proposed by the Treasury did not clearly outline the timeline and standards for state regulatory framework applications, reviews, and certifications, creating uncertainty for states. The letter noted that legislative cycles vary significantly across states, with some states even adopting a biennial legislative cycle, thus necessitating a flexible and continuously open certification mechanism to ensure that states can apply for certification as demand arises, rather than being constrained by timing mismatches that limit innovation and competition.

Bipartisan Senators Led by Lummis Urge U.S. Treasury to Maintain State-Level Stablecoin Regulatory Authority Under GENIUS Act

On June 17, Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya television released the terms of the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, which are more detailed than the version published by the Iranian Mehr News Agency. The following are the terms (with the Iranian media version in parentheses): 1. Iran and the U.S. and their allies in the current war announce the immediate and permanent cessation of all hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, from the date of signing this memorandum, and commit to refraining from any hostile actions or threats against each other in the future. The final agreement will confirm this provision and others. (Permanent and immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.) 2. Iran and the U.S. commit to respecting each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfering in each other's internal affairs. (The U.S. commits to not interfering in Iran's internal affairs and respecting Iran's sovereignty.) 3. Iran and the U.S. commit to negotiating and reaching a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days, with the possibility of extending the deadline by mutual consent. (This clause was not mentioned in the Iranian media version.) 4. After the signing of this memorandum, the U.S. will immediately lift its maritime blockade on Iran, preventing any interference or obstruction, and restore Iran's full shipping capacity within a maximum of 30 days; the volume of shipping should be proportionate to pre-war levels. The U.S. also commits to withdrawing its troops from the surrounding region within 30 days after the final agreement is reached. (Complete lifting of the maritime blockade on Iran within 30 days.)(The U.S. commits to withdrawing troops from around Iran.) 5. After signing this memorandum, Iran will immediately take measures to ensure that shipping between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman returns to pre-war levels within 30 days, while also addressing Iran's needs to clear technical obstacles and neutralize mines. (Under Iran's arrangements, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened within 30 days.) 6. The U.S. will work with regional partners to develop a comprehensive plan, mutually agreed upon by both parties, for Iran's revival and development, ensuring at least $300 billion in funding support. The implementation mechanism for this plan will be established within 60 days under the framework of the final agreement. (The U.S. and its allies need to provide at least $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction plan.) 7. The U.S. commits to terminating all types of sanctions currently imposed on Iran within the timeframe agreed upon in the final agreement, including United Nations Security Council resolutions, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) council resolutions, and all major and minor sanctions unilaterally imposed by the U.S. (Reach a final agreement on nuclear issues within 60 days and fully lift all major and minor U.S. sanctions on Iran, as well as the resolutions of the UN Security Council and IAEA council.) 8. Iran reiterates that it will never develop nuclear weapons. Iran and the U.S. have agreed to properly resolve the fate of enriched uranium and all other nuclear-related issues jointly agreed upon by both parties through the final agreement; this final agreement will confirm this provision. (Reiterating Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.) 9. Iran and the U.S. agree to maintain the status quo until a final agreement is reached: Iran will continue to maintain the status of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its military presence in the region. (During negotiations, the U.S. commits not to increase troop deployments in the region or impose new sanctions.) 10. The U.S. commits that, from the signing of this memorandum until the date of sanctions relief, the U.S. Treasury will exempt Iran's exports of crude oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, as well as all related services (including banking, insurance, transportation, etc.). (Suspend sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, and allow Iran to fully utilize its financial resources.) 11. The U.S. commits that, given progress in the negotiation process, Iran's frozen or restricted funds and assets will be released and fully utilized. Regardless of whether these funds are held in main accounts or have been transferred, they will be used for the accounts of final beneficiaries determined by the Central Bank of Iran and can be fully accessed. The U.S. commits to issuing all necessary permits on this basis. (During the 60-day final negotiation period, release $24 billion of Iran's frozen funds, with half of it to be provided to Iran before negotiations begin.) 12. Iran and the U.S. agree to establish an enforcement mechanism to monitor the successful implementation of the final agreement and the fulfillment of future commitments. (Establish a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.) 13. After signing this memorandum and receiving guarantees regarding the initiation of the implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this memorandum and the continued implementation of the aforementioned measures, Iran and the U.S. will negotiate the remaining terms to reach a final agreement. (Final negotiations will only begin after the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, and the lifting of the maritime blockade; the final agreement will only cover the future of enriched uranium materials and processes, the lifting of sanctions, and Iran's economic reconstruction plan. Issues regarding Iran's missile program and support for resistance organizations have been explicitly removed from the agenda.) 14. The final agreement will be approved by a legally binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council. (The final agreement will be approved by a resolution of the United Nations Security Council.)

[Saudi Media Releases Detailed 14-Point Memorandum of Understanding Between the U.S. and Iran]On June 17, Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya television released the terms of the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, which are more detailed than the version published by the Iranian Mehr News Agency. The following are the terms (with the Iranian media version in parentheses): 1. Iran and the U.S. and their allies in the current war announce the immediate and permanent cessation of all hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, from the date of signing this memorandum, and commit to refraining from any hostile actions or threats against each other in the future. The final agreement will confirm this provision and others. (Permanent and immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.) 2. Iran and the U.S. commit to respecting each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfering in each other's internal affairs. (The U.S. commits to not interfering in Iran's internal affairs and respecting Iran's sovereignty.) 3. Iran and the U.S. commit to negotiating and reaching a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days, with the possibility of extending the deadline by mutual consent. (This clause was not mentioned in the Iranian media version.) 4. After the signing of this memorandum, the U.S. will immediately lift its maritime blockade on Iran, preventing any interference or obstruction, and restore Iran's full shipping capacity within a maximum of 30 days; the volume of shipping should be proportionate to pre-war levels. The U.S. also commits to withdrawing its troops from the surrounding region within 30 days after the final agreement is reached. (Complete lifting of the maritime blockade on Iran within 30 days.)(The U.S. commits to withdrawing troops from around Iran.) 5. After signing this memorandum, Iran will immediately take measures to ensure that shipping between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman returns to pre-war levels within 30 days, while also addressing Iran's needs to clear technical obstacles and neutralize mines. (Under Iran's arrangements, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened within 30 days.) 6. The U.S. will work with regional partners to develop a comprehensive plan, mutually agreed upon by both parties, for Iran's revival and development, ensuring at least $300 billion in funding support. The implementation mechanism for this plan will be established within 60 days under the framework of the final agreement. (The U.S. and its allies need to provide at least $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction plan.) 7. The U.S. commits to terminating all types of sanctions currently imposed on Iran within the timeframe agreed upon in the final agreement, including United Nations Security Council resolutions, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) council resolutions, and all major and minor sanctions unilaterally imposed by the U.S. (Reach a final agreement on nuclear issues within 60 days and fully lift all major and minor U.S. sanctions on Iran, as well as the resolutions of the UN Security Council and IAEA council.) 8. Iran reiterates that it will never develop nuclear weapons. Iran and the U.S. have agreed to properly resolve the fate of enriched uranium and all other nuclear-related issues jointly agreed upon by both parties through the final agreement; this final agreement will confirm this provision. (Reiterating Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.) 9. Iran and the U.S. agree to maintain the status quo until a final agreement is reached: Iran will continue to maintain the status of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its military presence in the region. (During negotiations, the U.S. commits not to increase troop deployments in the region or impose new sanctions.) 10. The U.S. commits that, from the signing of this memorandum until the date of sanctions relief, the U.S. Treasury will exempt Iran's exports of crude oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, as well as all related services (including banking, insurance, transportation, etc.). (Suspend sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, and allow Iran to fully utilize its financial resources.) 11. The U.S. commits that, given progress in the negotiation process, Iran's frozen or restricted funds and assets will be released and fully utilized. Regardless of whether these funds are held in main accounts or have been transferred, they will be used for the accounts of final beneficiaries determined by the Central Bank of Iran and can be fully accessed. The U.S. commits to issuing all necessary permits on this basis. (During the 60-day final negotiation period, release $24 billion of Iran's frozen funds, with half of it to be provided to Iran before negotiations begin.) 12. Iran and the U.S. agree to establish an enforcement mechanism to monitor the successful implementation of the final agreement and the fulfillment of future commitments. (Establish a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.) 13. After signing this memorandum and receiving guarantees regarding the initiation of the implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this memorandum and the continued implementation of the aforementioned measures, Iran and the U.S. will negotiate the remaining terms to reach a final agreement. (Final negotiations will only begin after the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, and the lifting of the maritime blockade; the final agreement will only cover the future of enriched uranium materials and processes, the lifting of sanctions, and Iran's economic reconstruction plan. Issues regarding Iran's missile program and support for resistance organizations have been explicitly removed from the agenda.) 14. The final agreement will be approved by a legally binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council. (The final agreement will be approved by a resolution of the United Nations Security Council.)

Saudi Media Releases Detailed 14-Point Memorandum of Understanding Between the U.S. and Iran

On June 17, CNN reported that an Israeli source revealed Israel had requested the United States to provide the text of the US-Iran memorandum for review but was denied. The source stated that one reason for the US refusal was the Trump administration's concern that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu might leak the content of the memorandum before its official release. Netanyahu held a press conference on the evening of June 15, where he barely mentioned the memorandum in his opening remarks. During the subsequent Q&A session, he stated that he and Trump 'do not always agree.' He also remarked, 'We still do not know what this memorandum is about.'

[US Reportedly Refuses Israel's Request for US-Iran Memorandum Review]On June 17, CNN reported that an Israeli source revealed Israel had requested the United States to provide the text of the US-Iran memorandum for review but was denied. The source stated that one reason for the US refusal was the Trump administration's concern that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu might leak the content of the memorandum before its official release. Netanyahu held a press conference on the evening of June 15, where he barely mentioned the memorandum in his opening remarks. During the subsequent Q&A session, he stated that he and Trump 'do not always agree.' He also remarked, 'We still do not know what this memorandum is about.'

US Reportedly Refuses Israel's Request for US-Iran Memorandum Review

On June 17, U.S. intelligence assessments indicated that Iran, having demonstrated relevant capabilities during conflicts, still has the potential to close the Strait of Hormuz again. Although an agreement to reopen the Strait is expected to be reached, Tehran retains capabilities in missiles, drones, fast boats, and mine-laying, which could disrupt global energy transportation. Intelligence officials stated that Iran has gained leverage over this critical trade route and may use regional energy infrastructure as a tool for pressure.

[U.S. Intelligence: Iran Still Capable of Closing the Strait of Hormuz Again]On June 17, U.S. intelligence assessments indicated that Iran, having demonstrated relevant capabilities during conflicts, still has the potential to close the Strait of Hormuz again. Although an agreement to reopen the Strait is expected to be reached, Tehran retains capabilities in missiles, drones, fast boats, and mine-laying, which could disrupt global energy transportation. Intelligence officials stated that Iran has gained leverage over this critical trade route and may use regional energy infrastructure as a tool for pressure.

U.S. Intelligence: Iran Still Capable of Closing the Strait of Hormuz Again

On June 17, trading alerts indicated that over 1 million SpaceX (SPCX.O) options contracts were traded on their first day. (Jinshi)

[Over 1 Million SpaceX Options Contracts Traded on First Day]On June 17, trading alerts indicated that over 1 million SpaceX (SPCX.O) options contracts were traded on their first day. (Jinshi)

Over 1 Million SpaceX Options Contracts Traded on First Day

On June 17, during the G7 summit in France, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations for the U.S.-Iran agreement have entered the second phase, which is expected to progress more smoothly. Despite Trump's repeated emphasis that the U.S. will not provide financial support to Iran, it has been revealed that Iran will receive several economic incentives to reach the preliminary memorandum of understanding and the final agreement. On that day, Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have successfully signed the memorandum of understanding online, and the negotiations have entered the second phase, which he described as 'should be easier than the first phase.' Trump also mentioned that a press conference will be held to officially announce the text of the memorandum and it will be submitted to the U.S. Congress for review. He emphasized that 'the text clearly states that Iran will not have nuclear weapons,' which is a core bottom line; otherwise, it will face devastating strikes from the U.S., and the U.S. will not provide any financial support to Iran.

[Trump: Second Phase of US-Iran Agreement Negotiations 'Easier']On June 17, during the G7 summit in France, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations for the U.S.-Iran agreement have entered the second phase, which is expected to progress more smoothly. Despite Trump's repeated emphasis that the U.S. will not provide financial support to Iran, it has been revealed that Iran will receive several economic incentives to reach the preliminary memorandum of understanding and the final agreement. On that day, Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have successfully signed the memorandum of understanding online, and the negotiations have entered the second phase, which he described as 'should be easier than the first phase.' Trump also mentioned that a press conference will be held to officially announce the text of the memorandum and it will be submitted to the U.S. Congress for review. He emphasized that 'the text clearly states that Iran will not have nuclear weapons,' which is a core bottom line; otherwise, it will face devastating strikes from the U.S., and the U.S. will not provide any financial support to Iran.

Trump: Second Phase of US-Iran Agreement Negotiations 'Easier'

On June 16, Fitch Ratings stated that if an agreement leads to the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market is expected to return to oversupply within approximately one month. (Jinshi)

[Fitch: Global Oil Market Expected to Return to Oversupply Within a Month if Strait of Hormuz Fully Opens]On June 16, Fitch Ratings stated that if an agreement leads to the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market is expected to return to oversupply within approximately one month. (Jinshi)

Fitch: Global Oil Market Expected to Return to Oversupply Within a Month if Strait of Hormuz Fully Opens

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