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On April 5, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin positions has fallen below $100,000, currently sitting at $93,600. This indicates that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market's average break-even point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-positioned investors chose to cut their losses, which lowered the average cost of overall floating losses, a phenomenon commonly referred to as 'washing out'. It was also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC. In the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficients have all exceeded 2.0 (as shown in the blue waveform below). When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2.0, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, while at this moment, BTC's price is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this cycle would need to drop to $46,800. However, historical patterns do not always hold true, and the current bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, in the Polymarket related market of 'Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 or $80,000 first?', the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

[Analysis: Average Cost of BTC Losses at $93,600, Many High-Position Investors Have Cut Losses]On April 5, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin positions has fallen below $100,000, currently sitting at $93,600. This indicates that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market's average break-even point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-positioned investors chose to cut their losses, which lowered the average cost of overall floating losses, a phenomenon commonly referred to as 'washing out'. It was also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC. In the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficients have all exceeded 2.0 (as shown in the blue waveform below). When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2.0, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, while at this moment, BTC's price is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this cycle would need to drop to $46,800. However, historical patterns do not always hold true, and the current bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, in the Polymarket related market of 'Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 or $80,000 first?', the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

Analysis: Average Cost of BTC Losses at $93,600, Many High-Position Investors Have Cut Losses

Michael Ippolito, co-founder of Blockworks, published a lengthy article stating that the cryptocurrency industry is facing a 'survival-level' token issue: the growth rate of token supply has significantly outpaced the value created, leading to diluted returns and a disconnection between prices and fundamentals. According to data disclosed by DWF Labs, over 80% of projects are priced below their Token Generation Event (TGE) levels, with most experiencing a 50%-70% drop within three months, reflecting a structural selling pressure in the token market. Ippolito pointed out that although the overall market capitalization remains relatively robust, the average value performance of individual tokens is weak, having dropped about 50% since 2021, with most tokens retracting about 80% from their peaks. Returns are concentrated in a few major assets, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Furthermore, the correlation between token prices and on-chain revenue has significantly weakened; even when protocol revenues rebound, prices have not risen in tandem, reflecting a decline in market confidence regarding the ability to capture token value. Therefore, it is imperative to quickly repair token mechanisms; otherwise, the market will further concentrate on major assets, weakening the overall ecosystem.

[Blockworks Co-Founder: Token Value Imbalance Intensifies, Concentration of Funds in Major Assets Will Weaken Industry Ecosystem]Michael Ippolito, co-founder of Blockworks, published a lengthy article stating that the cryptocurrency industry is facing a 'survival-level' token issue: the growth rate of token supply has significantly outpaced the value created, leading to diluted returns and a disconnection between prices and fundamentals. According to data disclosed by DWF Labs, over 80% of projects are priced below their Token Generation Event (TGE) levels, with most experiencing a 50%-70% drop within three months, reflecting a structural selling pressure in the token market. Ippolito pointed out that although the overall market capitalization remains relatively robust, the average value performance of individual tokens is weak, having dropped about 50% since 2021, with most tokens retracting about 80% from their peaks. Returns are concentrated in a few major assets, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Furthermore, the correlation between token prices and on-chain revenue has significantly weakened; even when protocol revenues rebound, prices have not risen in tandem, reflecting a decline in market confidence regarding the ability to capture token value. Therefore, it is imperative to quickly repair token mechanisms; otherwise, the market will further concentrate on major assets, weakening the overall ecosystem.

Blockworks Co-Founder: Token Value Imbalance Intensifies, Concentration of Funds in Major Assets Will Weaken Industry Ecosystem

10x Research posted on platform X analyzing that Ethereum has essentially been a "no-yield asset" over the past five years, with its price lingering around the $2,000 level. Since November 2025, the outlook has remained cautious to bearish, mainly due to persistently weak on-chain activity, which limits demand and value capture. With ETH having retraced approximately 57% from its August 2025 peak, its current valuation appears relatively cheap and more attractive compared to Bitcoin, which only declined about 42% over the same period.

Furthermore, although Ethereum treasury companies, including Bitmine, still show book losses, the market continues to accumulate. Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) issuance on Ethereum has recently surpassed that on Tron, reigniting expectations that Ethereum could benefit from stablecoin growth and potentially become a key layer for on-chain finance and Wall Street infrastructure. Against this backdrop, Ethereum stands at a critical juncture, and whether it is about to recover or if structural headwinds will persist remains a focal point of attention.

[10x Research: Ethereum Faces Intensified Battle Between Recovery and Structural Weakness, Nearing Potential Turning Point]10x Research posted on platform X analyzing that Ethereum has essentially been a "no-yield asset" over the past five years, with its price lingering around the $2,000 level. Since November 2025, the outlook has remained cautious to bearish, mainly due to persistently weak on-chain activity, which limits demand and value capture. With ETH having retraced approximately 57% from its August 2025 peak, its current valuation appears relatively cheap and more attractive compared to Bitcoin, which only declined about 42% over the same period.

Furthermore, although Ethereum treasury companies, including Bitmine, still show book losses, the market continues to accumulate. Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) issuance on Ethereum has recently surpassed that on Tron, reigniting expectations that Ethereum could benefit from stablecoin growth and potentially become a key layer for on-chain finance and Wall Street infrastructure. Against this backdrop, Ethereum stands at a critical juncture, and whether it is about to recover or if structural headwinds will persist remains a focal point of attention.

10x Research: Ethereum Faces Intensified Battle Between Recovery and Structural Weakness, Nearing Potential Turning Point

April 5 marks the presumed 51st birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Bitcoin. Although the identity of this most significant anonymous figure in cryptocurrency history remains unclear, the code and ideas he left behind have profoundly changed the global financial order, even challenging central bank policies and the gold standard. Nakamoto's birthday, set in 2009 at the P2P Foundation, is April 5, 1975, which coincidentally is the same day that U.S. President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 in 1933, prohibiting private ownership of gold to stabilize the dollar. Many members of the crypto community view this as a critique of government monopoly on currency issuance.

[Today Marks Satoshi Nakamoto's 51st Birthday]April 5 marks the presumed 51st birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Bitcoin. Although the identity of this most significant anonymous figure in cryptocurrency history remains unclear, the code and ideas he left behind have profoundly changed the global financial order, even challenging central bank policies and the gold standard. Nakamoto's birthday, set in 2009 at the P2P Foundation, is April 5, 1975, which coincidentally is the same day that U.S. President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 in 1933, prohibiting private ownership of gold to stabilize the dollar. Many members of the crypto community view this as a critique of government monopoly on currency issuance.

Today Marks Satoshi Nakamoto's 51st Birthday

On April 5, according to Alternative data, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index today stands at 12 (up from 11 yesterday), indicating a slight easing of 'fear' in the market. Note: The fear index ranges from 0 to 100 and includes the following indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media activity (15%) + market surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's dominance in the overall market (10%) + Google Trends analysis (10%).

[Crypto Fear Index Rises to 12, Market 'Fear' Slightly Eases]On April 5, according to Alternative data, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index today stands at 12 (up from 11 yesterday), indicating a slight easing of 'fear' in the market. Note: The fear index ranges from 0 to 100 and includes the following indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media activity (15%) + market surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's dominance in the overall market (10%) + Google Trends analysis (10%).

Crypto Fear Index Rises to 12, Market 'Fear' Slightly Eases

On April 5, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chan Mo-po published a blog stating that the average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks in March exceeded HKD 300 billion, an increase of over 8% compared to the same period last year. This reflects Hong Kong's reliability as a safe haven for funds. Coupled with the stable growth of the mainland Chinese economy and a large number of high-quality companies listing in Hong Kong, it provides ample investment opportunities for investors. Chan noted that as of March 27, the total amount raised from IPOs in Hong Kong this year has exceeded HKD 103 billion, ranking first globally. Including follow-on financing, the total fundraising scale is approximately HKD 237 billion. More importantly, an increasing number of companies listing in Hong Kong belong to emerging industries, with over 500 applications currently pending for listing. It can be said that more and more companies view Hong Kong as an important window for financing and 'going global'.

[Chan Mo-po: Hong Kong as a Safe Haven for Investors' Funds]On April 5, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chan Mo-po published a blog stating that the average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks in March exceeded HKD 300 billion, an increase of over 8% compared to the same period last year. This reflects Hong Kong's reliability as a safe haven for funds. Coupled with the stable growth of the mainland Chinese economy and a large number of high-quality companies listing in Hong Kong, it provides ample investment opportunities for investors. Chan noted that as of March 27, the total amount raised from IPOs in Hong Kong this year has exceeded HKD 103 billion, ranking first globally. Including follow-on financing, the total fundraising scale is approximately HKD 237 billion. More importantly, an increasing number of companies listing in Hong Kong belong to emerging industries, with over 500 applications currently pending for listing. It can be said that more and more companies view Hong Kong as an important window for financing and 'going global'.

Chan Mo-po: Hong Kong as a Safe Haven for Investors' Funds

In response to a tweet from Helius CEO about the upcoming next round of the crypto cycle, Solana co-founder Toly stated that cheaper, faster, and lower-risk financial methods will ultimately surpass all alternatives. He emphasized the importance of immutable, formally verified software. The admin keys contain on-chain immutable policies, such as time locks. All truly interesting matters in finance, including those involving criminals, encompass extremely broad aspects. Therefore, any complex issues cannot be separated from admin privileges.

[Solana Co-founder Toly: Cheaper, Faster, and Lower-Risk Blockchain Finance Will Prevail]In response to a tweet from Helius CEO about the upcoming next round of the crypto cycle, Solana co-founder Toly stated that cheaper, faster, and lower-risk financial methods will ultimately surpass all alternatives. He emphasized the importance of immutable, formally verified software. The admin keys contain on-chain immutable policies, such as time locks. All truly interesting matters in finance, including those involving criminals, encompass extremely broad aspects. Therefore, any complex issues cannot be separated from admin privileges.

Solana Co-founder Toly: Cheaper, Faster, and Lower-Risk Blockchain Finance Will Prevail

On April 5, economists indicated that the sudden rise in gasoline prices, which consumers in the U.S. are experiencing firsthand, will be reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. The U.S. March CPI is expected to rise by 1% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 2022; the core CPI may increase by 0.3% month-on-month. Previously, the war in Iran drove gasoline prices at U.S. stations up by about $1 per gallon. A day before the CPI data is released, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator will provide insights into pre-war price pressures. Economists anticipate that the core PCE price index may rise by 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, indicating that the process of inflation returning to more moderate levels has stalled even before the outbreak of conflict. Combined with signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market, persistent price pressures, and new inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, this helps explain why the Fed may find it difficult to lower interest rates this year. (Jinshi)

[Economists: U.S. March CPI May Surge 1%, Fed Likely to Struggle with Rate Cuts This Year]On April 5, economists indicated that the sudden rise in gasoline prices, which consumers in the U.S. are experiencing firsthand, will be reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. The U.S. March CPI is expected to rise by 1% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 2022; the core CPI may increase by 0.3% month-on-month. Previously, the war in Iran drove gasoline prices at U.S. stations up by about $1 per gallon. A day before the CPI data is released, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator will provide insights into pre-war price pressures. Economists anticipate that the core PCE price index may rise by 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, indicating that the process of inflation returning to more moderate levels has stalled even before the outbreak of conflict. Combined with signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market, persistent price pressures, and new inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, this helps explain why the Fed may find it difficult to lower interest rates this year. (Jinshi)

Economists: U.S. March CPI May Surge 1%, Fed Likely to Struggle with Rate Cuts This Year

On April 5, according to Alternative data, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index today stands at 12 (up from 11 yesterday), indicating a slight easing of 'fear' in the market. Note: The fear index ranges from 0 to 100 and includes the following indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media activity (15%) + market surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's dominance in the market (10%) + Google Trends analysis (10%).

[Crypto Fear Index Rises to 12, Market 'Fear' Slightly Eases]On April 5, according to Alternative data, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index today stands at 12 (up from 11 yesterday), indicating a slight easing of 'fear' in the market. Note: The fear index ranges from 0 to 100 and includes the following indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media activity (15%) + market surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's dominance in the market (10%) + Google Trends analysis (10%).

due to Trump suggesting nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Hassett to replace Powell, U.S. Treasury prices fell, and traders reduced their expectations for two rate cuts in the U.S. in 2026. The decline in U.S. Treasuries pushed the two-year yield up by 5 basis points to 3.61%, reaching the highest level since the Fed's last rate cut in December. After Trump's comments on Hassett, short-term interest rate contracts reflected a decreased probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points twice this year. Meanwhile, the Treasury market continues to be troubled by the December employment data released a week ago, which led Wall Street banks that had previously predicted a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on January 28 to abandon that view. Morgan inflation economist predicts that despite changes in the Fed leadership, the Fed will not cut rates further. John Fath, managing partner of BTG Pactual Asset Management USA, stated: "Previous trades were bets that whoever serves as the next Fed chair would be dovish. This trend has reversed in the past few days."

[Trump's decision to drop Hassett has shaken the bond market, causing expectations of interest rate cuts to diminish.]due to Trump suggesting nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Hassett to replace Powell, U.S. Treasury prices fell, and traders reduced their expectations for two rate cuts in the U.S. in 2026. The decline in U.S. Treasuries pushed the two-year yield up by 5 basis points to 3.61%, reaching the highest level since the Fed's last rate cut in December. After Trump's comments on Hassett, short-term interest rate contracts reflected a decreased probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points twice this year. Meanwhile, the Treasury market continues to be troubled by the December employment data released a week ago, which led Wall Street banks that had previously predicted a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on January 28 to abandon that view. Morgan inflation economist predicts that despite changes in the Fed leadership, the Fed will not cut rates further. John Fath, managing partner of BTG Pactual Asset Management USA, stated: "Previous trades were bets that whoever serves as the next Fed chair would be dovish. This trend has reversed in the past few days."

Trump's decision to drop Hassett has shaken the bond market, causing expectations of interest rate cuts to diminish.

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Article

IMF Warns Tokenized Finance May Amplify Market Crises Beyond Regulatory Response Capacity

Trump's decision to drop Hassett has shaken the bond market, causing expectations of interest rate cuts to diminish.

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