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Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!OPN: Omnichain Prediction MarketPredict BTC's Price & Win 480M $HTX for 30 Days 播客:David Lin 编译&整理:Yuliya,PANews 原文标题:经济学家警告:比起重演50年前石油危机,股市泡沫更加脆弱 霍尔木兹海

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播客:David Lin

编译&整理:Yuliya,PANews

原文标题:经济学家警告:比起重演50年前石油危机,股市泡沫更加脆弱

霍尔木兹海峡命门被掐,油价爆冲,全球都在瑟瑟发抖坐等“1979大危机”重演?

别被表象骗了!约翰·霍普金斯大学教授Steve Hanke在最新播客中恐慌情绪泼了一盆冷水:真正的危机不在油价,而在美联储失控的印钞机和美股摇摇欲坠的高估值泡沫。此外,本期还讨论了当前股市的泡沫风险与战争冲击,以及伊朗战争带来的地缘政治和全球深远影响。

PANews对本期对话进行了文字编译整理。

重演1979年石油危机?实际风险更低

David:我们是否正处于重演1979年“石油危机2.0”的边缘?回顾1979年,危机始于伊朗革命中断了世界上最大出口国之一的石油生产。供应的突然下降使全球市场趋紧,导致油价飙升。在美国,直接的影响是汽油短缺,全国各地的加油站排起了长队,部分州甚至出现了燃料配给。能源价格上涨推高了整个经济的价格,美联储随后大幅加息以控制通胀。那次危机也加速了美国建立战略石油储备(SPR)的步伐。

如今,市场再次对地缘政治风险做出反应。位于伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡是世界上最重要的石油通道,每天约有2000万桶石油(约占全球消费量的五分之一)从中流过。随着该海峡因涉及伊朗的冲突而关闭,油价大幅飙升。Steve,欢迎回到节目。我们距离重演近50年未见的第二次石油危机还有多远?接下来会发生什么?

Steve Hanke:很高兴和你交流,David。为了说明背景,让我们稍微回顾一下历史。我的第一份教职是在世界顶级的矿业学校科罗拉多矿业学院。在60年代末,准确地说是1968年,我在那里教授了第一门石油经济学课程。同年,我编辑了一本名为《能源与国家安全的政治经济学》(The political economy of energy and national security)的书,讨论的正是我们现在谈论的话题。后来在1985年底,我建立了一个关于OPEC(欧佩克)的基础模型,预测它将会崩溃,油价会跌至每桶10美元以下。这在1986年确实发生了,油价也如期下跌。当时我在多伦多的Friedberg Mercantile Group工作,基于我的分析,我们持有非常大的空头头寸,最终占据了伦敦市场轻柴油合约70%以上的空头份额。

如果我们将现在的局势与1978-1979年进行对比,我认为今天发生破坏的潜在风险实际上比那时要低。原因有几个:

1978年,伊朗的石油产量占全球的8.5%,而现在他们只占5.2%。

1978年中东地区的产量占全球的34.3%,现在下降到了31%。

美国在1978年的产量占全球的15.6%,而现在我们上升到了18.9%。我们对外国生产的依赖度降低了。

最重要的一点是,我们的“石油强度”(即每单位GDP所消耗的石油量)已经从1.5%大幅下降到了0.4%。

石油市场:供应冲击与政策应对

David:财政部长贝森特前两天表示,政府将发布一系列公告。目前油价已经飙升至86美元,如果局势不尽快解决,油价还会更高。政府显然不希望加油站的价格上涨。除了实施价格管制,政府还能做些什么来稳定美国人的汽油价格?

Steve Hanke:如果实施价格管制,加油站就会排起长队,因为需求会超过供应。如果不干预,市场会自动出清,只是价格会更高。

要解决眼下的短缺,最快的方法是取消对俄罗斯的制裁,让停泊在海上的庞大“影子舰队”卸载并出售其储存的俄罗斯原油。事实上,美国已经开始转向,允许部分俄罗斯石油流向印度。

David:美国的盟友会对减轻对俄制裁作何反应?这又将如何影响乌克兰战争?

Steve Hanke:欧洲正受到能源价格上涨的沉重打击。由于欧洲对俄罗斯实施了制裁,加上北溪2号管道被炸毁,从俄罗斯输送到欧洲的天然气供应被大幅切断。结果,欧洲人不得不主要从美国购买液化天然气,其成本大约是俄罗斯天然气的三倍。所以他们现在处境非常艰难,被逼到了角落里。

我认为,转向俄罗斯的想法可能是他们不得不“捏着鼻子咽下去”的妥协。当然,我从一开始就建议不要实施任何制裁。我是一个自由贸易者,我不喜欢任何时间、任何地点的制裁、关税或配额。

David:你认为战略石油储备(SPR)最终会被动用吗?这不正是70年代建立SPR要应对的精确场景吗?目前能源部报告SPR中大约有4.13亿桶石油。

Steve Hanke:他们可以这么做,这确实是

播客:David Lin 编译&整理:Yuliya,PANews 原文标题:经济学家警告:

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Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!Predict BTC's Price & Win 480M $HTX for 30 DaysClaim1,200 USDT in the Monthly Creation ChallengeSiren (SRN) 接近 $11，市场看涨势头明显 加密货币 Siren (SRN) 再次引起交易者关注，价

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Siren (SRN) 接近 $11，市场看涨势头明显
加密货币 Siren (SRN) 再次引起交易者关注，价格出现显著上涨，接近 $11。分析人士认为，这波上涨由 技术动能、项目采用率增长以及整体市场乐观情绪 共同推动。
最新交易数据显示，SRN 已突破关键阻力位，显示出强劲的买盘压力。投资者将 Siren 平台的活跃度提升、战略合作伙伴关系以及生态系统发展视为价格上涨的主要催化因素。这波上涨也吸引了零售交易者和机构投资者对该项目的兴趣，他们都在寻找高潜力的山寨币机会。
专家指出 SRN 表现强劲的几个原因：
平台增长 – Siren 的 DeFi 和交易解决方案持续获得用户关注，越来越多的人使用其去中心化期权和衍生品交易功能。
市场情绪 – 整体加密市场，尤其是山寨币板块的积极动能，为 SRN 提供了有利的交易环境。
技术指标 – 图表显示 SRN 在高交易量支撑下突破之前的阻力区，这表明上涨趋势可能延续，目标价位接近 $11。
尽管上涨势头明显，分析人士仍建议保持谨慎。价格快速飙升往往伴随 高波动性，交易者需采取风险管理策略。一些市场观察人士指出，虽然 $11 可期，但在进一步上涨前，可能会出现整固或短期回调。
对投资者而言，Siren 的上涨既是 机会也是风险。项目基本面良好，加上生态系统活动增加，可能支撑价格进一步上涨，但市场波动仍需关注。
随着 2026 年的推进，交易者将密切关注 Siren 的价格走势、平台发展和交易量变化，以判断 SRN 是否能够保持看涨势头并实现 $11 目标。

Siren (SRN) 接近 $11，市场看涨势头明显 加密货币 Siren (SRN) 再次引起交

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Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!OPN: Omnichain Prediction MarketROBO: Secure & Open Future for AI and RoboticsЦена Chainlink застряла ниже важной зоны сопротивления Фибоначчи около $9,

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Цена Chainlink застряла ниже важной зоны сопротивления Фибоначчи около $9,17, поскольку импульс ослабевает. Вероятность коррекционного разворота в сторону более низких уровней поддержки возрастает. Краткое описание. Ключевое сопротивление: $9,17 совпадает с уровнем Фибоначчи 0,618, VWAP и максимумом в зоне стоимости. Слабый импульс: Недавний рост произошел при низком объеме торгов, что увеличивает риск отскока. Целевая поддержка: Потенциальный разворот в сторону зоны поддержки на уровне $8,24. Chainlink (LINK) вошла в технически значимую зону, поскольку ценовое движение сжимается под группой уровней сопротивления около $9,17. Актив недавно пытался продолжить восходящий импульс, но начал замедляться, приближаясь к точке слияния технических барьеров. Учитывая, что несколько индикаторов сопротивления выстраиваются в одном регионе, а объем торгов снижается во время недавнего роста, рынок может готовиться к временной коррекции перед устойчивым продолжением движения к более высоким уровням сопротивления. Ключевые технические моменты цены Chainlink: Основная зона сопротивления: $9,17 совпадает с уровнем коррекции Фибоначчи 0,618, средневзвешенной ценой (VWAP) и максимумом в зоне стоимости. Ралли с низким объемом: Слабое участие увеличивает вероятность отскока. Цель снижения: Потенциальная ротация к уровню поддержки $8,24. График LINKUSDT (4H), Источник: TradingView. Текущее движение цены Chainlink приближается к технически важному кластеру сопротивления, расположенному около $9,17. Этот уровень представляет собой уровень коррекции Фибоначчи 0,618 от недавней структуры колебаний, зону, которая часто выступает в качестве решающей точки поворота в рыночных трендах. Наличие максимума в зоне стоимости в этом регионе добавляет дополнительную значимость, поскольку он представляет собой область, где произошла большая часть предыдущей торговой активнос

Цена Chainlink застряла ниже важной зоны сопротивл

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Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!OPN: Omnichain Prediction MarketROBO: Secure & Open Future for AI and RoboticsGoldman Sachs has delayed its prediction for the first Federal Reserve rat

Goldman Sachs has delayed its prediction for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to September 2026, potentially putting pressure on the crypto market. Summary Goldman Sachs now expects the first Fed rate cut in September 2026, later than its earlier June forecast. Inflation forecasts were raised, with headline PCE seen reaching 2.9% by the end of 2026. Higher-for-longer rates could pressure the crypto market, as tighter liquidity often weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, warning that rising inflation risks tied to oil prices and geopolitical tensions may delay monetary easing. In a note released on March 12, the investment bank said it now expects the first 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2026, followed by another reduction in December. Earlier projections had placed the first cut in June. The revised outlook comes as financial markets remain uneasy about the economic impact of the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has raised fears of supply disruptions in global oil markets. Inflation forecasts move higher Goldman also raised its inflation expectations for 2026. The bank now sees headline PCE inflation reaching 2.9% by the end of the year, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage points. Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 2.4%, while the forecast for U.S. GDP growth was trimmed to 2.2%. Higher energy prices are the main driver of the shift. The bank now expects Brent crude to average around $98 per barrel in March and April, roughly 40% above the 2025 average. In a scenario where disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz last for a month, prices could climb above $110 per barrel. You might also like: Top altcoins to buy as Iran – US war fuels crypto volatility Goldman estimates that a 10% increase in oil prices 

Goldman Sachs has delayed its prediction for the f

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SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has signaled a more cautious approach to blockchain innovation, recommending that the agency pursue an innovation exemption to allow limited trading and experimentation 

Hester Peirce Says SEC Working on Limited Innovation Exemption for Tokenized Securities

Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!OPN: Omnichain Prediction MarketROBO: Secure & Open Future for AI and RoboticsTrusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and season

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure Bitcoin miner MARA has transferred 298 BTC to Cumberland, a move that could be linked to the company’s new stance on BTC sales.MARA Recently Opened Door To Bitcoin SalesAccording to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, mining firm MARA has just made a transfer out of its Bitcoin wallets. The transaction has occurred just nine days after the company said in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it expanded its digital asset management strategy to allow for sales from BTC held on its balance sheet. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Crosses 20 Million Milestone: How Long Will The Final 1 Million Take?Historically, the miner has held onto the BTC that it has mined and purchased additional tokens for its treasury. Last year, however, it changed its strategy to permit sales of tokens generated via its mining operations. The expansion from earlier this month further built on this policy.Considering that the miner is open to selling Bitcoin now, the latest outflow transaction from its reserve could be significant. The data for the outflow transactions made by MARA | Source: CryptoQuant on XAs displayed in the above graph, this transaction involved around 298 BTC (worth $21 million right now). According to CryptoQuant, the move was to Cumberland, a digital asset liquidity platform aimed at institutional entities.MARA’s change of stance has come while the firm has been making a push into the AI datacenter space and amid a bearish downturn in the cryptocurrency sector. Bitcoin mining is an energy-intensive process, so all miners have to pay a constant running cost in the form of electricity bills. Whether miners can net a profit on their operations depends on the value of the tokens that they are mining, which tends to go 

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading ind

Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!OPN: Omnichain Prediction MarketPredict BTC's Price & Win 480M $HTX for 30 Days Gas prices in the US jumped nearly 35 cents in a single week, and right 


Gas prices in the US jumped nearly 35 cents in a single week, and right now the national average sits at $3.60 per gallon — the highest level since mid-2024 and a more than 20% increase from just a month ago. Gasoline prices today are up in all 50 states, and for the first time since 2023, not a single state averages below $3. The Iran conflict, which began on Feb. 28, is driving all of this by effectively shutting down oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Gas prices every state have climbed since then, though some got hit far harder than others. Gasoline prices in Europe are also climbing sharply, with some countries seeing increases of up to 30% in a single week.National Gas Price Comparison 2023–2026, current national average $3.59Source: Watcher.Guru using AAA/GasPrices.AAA.com dataGas Prices Every State: Gas Price USA And Gasoline Prices TodaySource: oilprice.comGasoline Prices Today: What’s Behind the SurgeThe Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway south of Iran that normally carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil — dropped to a near-trickle once the conflict broke out. The IEA called it “the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets” and noted that oil flows fell from 20 million barrels a day to almost nothing. Brent crude surged from around $70 a barrel in late February to over $110 at the height of the escalation, and the IEA then agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest emergency release in history.Iran’s oil infrastructure — oil fields, pipelines, terminals, and the Strait of HormuzSource: S&P Global Energy / CNNGas prices last week also saw their largest three-day jump since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Before this surge, the gas price USA had been sitting at lows not seen since 2021 — so the jump has caught a lot of drivers off guard.AA

Gas prices in the US jumped nearly 35 cents in a s

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加密货币与传统金融：运作机制。广告。随着数字支付和加密货币的不断融合，促进区块链资产与电子支付系统之间无缝流动的服务变得日益重要。KamilExchange 就是这样一个平台，旨在促进稳定币与广泛使用的数字支付服务之间的交易。该平台专注于透明度和简化的交易流程，旨在简化依赖数字钱包和移动支付系统的用户跨境转账。图片由 KamilExchange 提供。Tether 等稳定币的兴起在推动此类服务的发展中发挥了关键作用。稳定币通过与传统货币（通常是美元）挂钩来维持其价值稳定。由于这种稳定性，它们经常被用作加密货币市场和日常金融交易之间的桥梁。突发新闻：“彻头彻尾的谎言”：布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗和 Coinbase 高管否认游说反对比特币。加密货币市场回顾：Shiba Inu (SHIB) 将在 2026 年遭受重创，以太坊 (ETH) 将面临严峻考验，Solana (SOL) 是否正处于波动性崩盘的边缘？对于全球众多用户而言，稳定币提供了一种便捷的资金转移方式，避免了其他数字资产的波动性。KamilExchange 等平台进一步拓展了这一理念，提供将稳定币转换为区域支付网络余额的工具。广告。介于加密货币与传统金融之间。KamilExchange 的定位主要在于连接加密货币生态系统和电子支付平台，而非传统的加密货币交易平台。该平台并非专注于加密货币之间的交易，而是专注于在 TRC20 和 BEP20 等广泛使用的区块链网络上进行 Tether 交易。这些网络以其相对较低的交易费用和快速的确认时间而闻名，因此特别适合国际资金转账。利用这些网络，该平台可以支持区块链钱包和外部数字支付账户之间的快速结算。对这类服务日益增长的需求反映了全球金融领域的更广泛趋势。在世界许多地区，移动和电子支付系统已成为主要的资金转移方式。这些系统通常比传统银行基础设施提供更快、更便捷的交易，尤其是在传统金融服务可能受限的地区。将加密货币与这些系统集成，使用户能够将区块链网络的全球覆盖范围与本地支付服务的实用性相结合。在此背景下，KamilExchange 支持 USDT 与多个常用的区域交易和汇款数字支付平台之间的兑换。这些平台包括 MoneyGo、EVCplus、SAHAL、ZAAD、EDAHAB、OptiMoney、Internal Account Balances 和 E-Birr 等。这些支付解决方案通常用于日常转账、移动支付和国际汇款，尤其是在移动金融系统已成为经济活动核心的市场。通过实现稳定币与这些服务之间的转换，该平台使用户能够在世界加密货币网络和本地支付生态系统之间转移资金。它是如何运作的？兑换流程本身的设计即使是对数字资产平台相对陌生的用户也能轻松上手。用户通常首先选择要发送的资产，例如 TRC20 或 BEP20 网络上的 Tether，然后指定收款支付服务。输入金额后，系统会自动计算当前汇率，并在用户确认交易前显示最终支付金额。这种注重透明结算的方式旨在降低不确定性，使用户能够清楚地了解将收到的确切金额。确认详细信息后，平台会提供一个钱包地址，用户应将加密货币发送到该地址。一旦区块链检测到交易并完成必要的网络确认，交易服务就会将相应的款项支付到所选的数字支付系统。

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DeFi Feels Different When You Use It Regularly At first, decentralized finance can feel like something experimental. But after interacting with platforms consistently, the experience starts to feel su

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Avalanche has become one of the most recognized high-performance blockchain platforms in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Known for its fast transaction speeds and scalable architecture, Avalanche continues attracting developers and investors looking for efficient decentralized solutions.
From my crypto experience, blockchain networks that offer high speed and low fees tend to gain strong adoption among decentralized finance applications. Avalanche is designed to process thousands of transactions per second while maintaining network security and decentralization.
Crypto gossip among traders often focuses on Avalanche’s ability to compete with major smart contract platforms like Ethereum. Many developers are exploring Avalanche because of its unique subnet technology, which allows projects to create custom blockchains within the ecosystem.
Sector-specific insights highlight Avalanche’s growing presence in decentralized finance, NFTs, and Web3 gaming. Several DeFi platforms and digital asset marketplaces have already launched on the Avalanche network, contributing to increased ecosystem activity.
From a price analysis perspective, AVAX has been trading between $32 and $38 in recent weeks. $30 currently acts as a strong support level, while $40 remains an important resistance zone for traders.
If bul

lish market sentiment increases and AVAX breaks above resistance, analysts believe the next potential target could appear near $45.
Avalanche continues to strengthen its position as a fast and scalable blockchain platform designed for the next generation of decentralized applications.
HTX Content Creator | Zora
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@justinsuntron @HTX_Molly

$BTC$我刚刚进行了平仓操作，现在跟单，下把一起实盘！

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