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06/19 21:00
Analyst warns Bitcoin is quietly losing to stocks
Bitcoin (BTC) has been coiling inside a narrow range for almost a week, and a popular crypto analyst reveals some price targets it need to break past.
In posts on June 19, Daan Crypto Trades pointed to a "mini range" that Bitcoin has been stuck in.
According to the analyst, a cluster of short positions piled in near the $62,300-mark, trying to force a breakdown, only to get squeezed out as price held. With United States markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, he noted, overall volatility had thinned considerably, leaving Bitcoin to drift in a tight zone.
Related: Senator says Bitcoin can pay down America's national debt
Why the range matters
The analyst's core point is about compression.
"The longer this spends ranging in this small area, the bigger the break from the range will be," he wrote.
In other words, the tighter and longer the consolidation, the more violent the eventual move in either direction.
The analyst identified $62,300 and $63,300 as the short-term levels to watch.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $63,028, sitting just inside the upper edge of that band. It has shed more than 18% over the past month.
During the week of June 15–19, it briefly pushed as high as $67,000 on a couple of occasions before sliding back to roughly where it started, around the $63,000 level.
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The bigger number to watch out for
Beyond the short-term range, Daan flagged a more striking figure that reframes Bitcoin's recent weakness.
Measured against the S&P 500, Bitcoin is now down roughly 60% from its relative highs set last year, which was north of $126,000 in early October 2025. This was before the October 10 crash.
To return to that peak performance versus the index, he calculated, Bitcoin would need to trade near $148,000 today. This is 135% higher than the current price.
Daan Crypto Trades highlights BTC/SPX (Source: X)
In an accompanying BTC/SPX ratio chart, the analyst showed how far Bitcoin has lagged equities since topping out. The relationship slides from a high near the top of the range in 2025 down toward levels last seen in late 2023.
The S&P 500 index tracks the performance of roughly 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, weighted by market capitalization. Some of the companies in the index include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), Block (NYSE: XYZ), and Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD).
The S&P 500 has experienced a better year so far compared to Bitcoin. Apart from clocking historic all-time highs right in the middle of the U.S.-Iran war, the index has climbed by over 9% year-to-date and about 25% over the past one year period.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has seen its YTD drop by 28% while the past one year drop is over 39%.
Related: Wall Street giant Jane Street bets big on Bitcoin mining stocks
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