Key Takeaways
Why aren’t XRP ETFs boosting price?
Because XRP isn’t lacking catalysts. Instead, it’s lacking conviction. On-chain weakness show holders are selling into the news, not buying it.
Is Ripple’s weakness about timing?
Compared with majors like Ethereum reclaiming highs pre-crash, Ripple is underperforming both on-chain and technically.
Zooming out, XRP’s undervaluation thesis starts to gain weight.
Even after back-to-back acquisitions and ETF launches, Ripple [XRP] is still down 35% this quarter. Looking at spot valuations, buying the “dip” could be a no-brainer for outsized future returns.
That said, on-chain data tells a different story. The share of XRP supply in profit has dropped to 57%, the lowest level since November 2024, when XRP was $0.53. In short, HODLers aren’t exactly buying the narrative.
Source: Glassnode
In fact, investor patience seems to be running thin.
Glassnode data shows that with XRP hovering around $2.00, the 30D EMA of daily realized losses has surged to $75 million/day, marking the highest level since April 2025.
This suggests more holders are locking in losses.
And yet, against this bearish setup, both Franklin Templeton and Grayscale XRP ETFs just got the green light on the NYSE. Does this mean that Ripple is hitting Wall Street at the worst possible time?
XRP’s Wall Street moment: Too soon or too weak?
One thing is clear: Investors aren’t treating the Ripple as undervalued.
Why does this matter? Because it shows that Ripple’s ETF launches aren’t failing due to broader market weakness. Instead, they’re failing due to fading conviction. Simply put, the “hype” isn’t translating into bids.
So the issue isn’t “bad timing.” The XRP ETFs didn’t land at the wrong moment. The market just isn’t buying the narrative.
And it shows: Ripple’s on-chain weakness is now bleeding into the charts, with price below $2.
Source: TradingView (XRP/USDT)
Yes, the broader market is bleeding, and plenty of alts are losing support.
But Ripple’s chart looks worse by comparison. Unlike Ethereum [ETH], which managed to reclaim its previous highs before the October drop, XRP hasn’t come close to a similar recovery since its July peak at $3.60.
In essence, XRP is lagging both on-chain and technically, and the ETF headlines aren’t doing much to change the trend. So even if the macro setup were bullish, these ETFs still wouldn’t move the needle for Ripple.
