Key Takeaways
Is TRX fundamentally weak?
Network Activity and Exchange Balances showed no panic selling, leaving room for a potential short-term recovery.
What does the relative strength of TRX/BTC imply?
TRX/BTC gained while other leading assets’ BTC pairs fell, showing relative TRON resilience. However, investors should remain cautious.
TRON [TRX] dropped to a swing low of $0.30 on the 11th of October, falling 10.98% during Friday’s sell-off.
The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) showed little onchain TRX movement, meaning the price movement was driven mostly within exchanges. This idea is supported by reports that tokens not listed on centralized exchanges didn’t crash as hard.
Whatever the exact reason that drove such a violent dump for altcoins, holders and survivors must make their next plans.
TRX holds ground while peers bleed
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, analyst CrazzyBlockk observed that TRON was an exception during the severe, widespread sell-off. Other leading crypto assets like Ethereum [ETH] and Solana [SOL] saw their value fall quickly relative to Bitcoin [BTC].
This is evident in the chart that compares the performance of BTC pairs for TRX, ETH, and SOL.
On the 11th of October, TRX/BTC gained 2.1% with ETH/BTC falling 3.86% and SOL/BTC dropped by 8.27%.
Source: TRX/BTC on TradingView
Investors and traders should remember that the TRX/BTC pair still has a bearish structure on the 1-day chart and was at a key support level stretching back to late July.
Of course, the strength against Bitcoin compared to other leading assets is encouraging, but caution is warranted.
TRON resilience in the face of panic
Source: TRX/USDT on Trading View
In a recent report, AMBCrypto explained why a bullish breakout to $0.37 was likely.
Despite the sell-off, the $0.3 support had been defended. As the daily chart overhead showed, this support level had been in place since July.
The bearish structure on the daily chart was confirmed when TRX was unable to climb above $0.353 (white), and was forced to drop below the $0.33 low set on the 2nd of October.
Both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs tilted downward, and the Money Flow Index (MFI) stayed below 50, showing momentum favored sellers. And so, a drop below $0.3 could usher in the next leg lower.
Weekly outlook still favors long-term holders
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
Though the structure was bearish on the daily timeframe, it was bullish on the weekly timeframe. Hence, swing traders should not be rushing to go short.
In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, analyst Darkfost drew attention to the fact that TRON was only 12.57% shy of its all-time high.
Since the market correction in March, TRX hasn’t seen a drawdown of over 10% till October. This reflected the altcoin’s resilience, according to the analyst.
In fact, even after Friday’s wipeout, TRX’s broader market stability contrasts sharply with weaker Layer-1 assets.
Traders are watching Bitcoin’s next move, as BTC’s action on the 13th of October could dictate short-term direction. If BTC stabilizes, TRON may quickly recover toward the $0.33–$0.35 zone.
