[Key interpretation] BTC's biggest risk is that there are too many profiteers, and ETH's market is depressed during the week

Huobi ResearchPublié le 2022-06-10Dernière mise à jour le 2022-06-13

Résumé

BTC runs sideways, and the volatility is reduced to prepare for a change.

1、 BTC volatility decreased significantly

After the continuous correction of BTC in the short term, while the price remained weak, the volatility dropped to 2.5%. At the same time, BTC's weekend market was relatively flat after the trading volume was close to the equivalent line. Without strong capital flow, it is more likely to maintain weak consolidation.

In terms of moving average, the BTC price is lower than the 10 day moving average, and there is little profit space during the rebound. With the continuation of the adjustment, the long and short sides may choose the direction of breakthrough after a fight near us $30000. As for the range fluctuation opportunities, we can pay attention to the trading opportunities of BTC in the range of USD 28000 to USD 32000.

2. BTC investors have a high percentage of profits from holding currency

The BTC price was running around USD 30000, which was significantly retreated from the historical high of USD 69000, but the overall profit performance of investors remained unchanged. According to the performance of uxto, a transaction that has never been spent, the index value shows that the overall profit space is around 75%, which is equivalent to the level before July 2020. In this sense, the transaction output not spent by BTC still has a large callback space.

This shows that the profits accumulated in the bull market may continue to flee, and the fixed investment transaction can expect a competitive buying price.

3. Eth horizontal plate below pressure level

Weekly K-line chart shows that eth is sideways clearing below the pressure level of $1910 corresponding to the key 61.8% of Fibonacci, and has not sent any effective trading signal at present. In terms of trading volume, the weekly trading volume is significantly lower than that before May 2021.

The current trend of eth is relatively sluggish. In addition to continuing the trend of price adjustment, the new market entry funds are limited, affecting the efficiency of bottom confirmation. Within the week, the ETH price failed to rise above the 120 day moving average, which means that the bulls have insufficient ability to raise the price, and the market maintains the status quo of range fluctuation.

4. Xtz short-term rebound is blocked

The recent trading heat of xtz has increased slightly, and the price increase has reached around $2.35 corresponding to the 60 day moving average, showing good price elasticity. Recent news shows that tether has announced that it will launch usdt on tezos (xtz) blockchain. This announcement now means that usdt can be used on 12 blockchain networks, including Ethereum (ETH), Tron (TRX) .

Alessandro de Carli, the founder of papers, said: "with the introduction of USD ₮ the entrance and exit of tezos defi ecosystem have been simplified and efficient." the introduction of USD ₮ on tezos will undoubtedly unlock new defi products, which I expect will have a significant impact on the growth of tezos defi ecosystem. "

In terms of price impact, xtz rose and fell in the short term, which is consistent with the trend of mainstream currencies, but the market performance is stronger than BTC and eth. Stabilize the currency entering tezos network, and the positive effect on xtz price will be reflected in the long-term price performance.

Lectures associées

Décomposition de la Stratégie de Trading Bitcoin : Prédictions de Célébrités et Modèles Classiques Tous Défaillants, Seuls Ces Quatre Indicateurs Restent

L'auteur, non-traiteur professionnel, a analysé toutes les méthodes de prédiction du prix du Bitcoin (BTC) de 2017 à 2025 et a constaté que les prédictions de célébrités et les modèles classiques (comme Stock-to-Flow) sont devenus inefficaces. Seuls quatre indicateurs se sont révélés fiables pour décrire l'état du marché plutôt que de prédire l'avenir. Les indicateurs retenus sont : 1. **MVRV Z-Score** : Identifie les creux de cycle (zones vertes) avec une grande précision historique, bien que son utilité pour les sommets ait diminué depuis 2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA)** : Indique que les détenteurs vendent à perte (valeur < 1.0), un signal stable pour les creux du marché. 3. **Flux nets des ETF Bitcoin** : Un nouvel indicateur crucial depuis 2024 pour suivre le comportement des institutions. 4. **Liquidité macroéconomique** : La politique de la Fed et la croissance de M2 pour déterminer la direction générale du marché. La stratégie consiste à attendre une **résonance** d'au moins trois de ces signaux avant d'agir, évitant ainsi les faux signaux. Un système automatisé surveille ces données et envoie une alerte uniquement lorsque les conditions sont remplies. **Signal actuel (15 avril 2026)** : Une triple résonance des indicateurs on-chain (Peur extrême, MVRV en zone verte, SOPR < 1.0) signale une opportunité d'achat historique, similaire aux creux de 2018, 2020 et 2022. Seul le flux des ETF n'est pas encore favorable. L'essentiel est de se baser sur un cadre objectif plutôt que sur des prédictions. Ceci n'est pas un conseil financier.

marsbitIl y a 2 h

Décomposition de la Stratégie de Trading Bitcoin : Prédictions de Célébrités et Modèles Classiques Tous Défaillants, Seuls Ces Quatre Indicateurs Restent

marsbitIl y a 2 h

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