Predicting 'US Invasion of Iran' Down 40%, Trader xm39 Still Builds $7M Crude Oil Long Position

08/10 10:40

On August 10, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, Polymarket trader "xm39" continues to face pressure on his "Yes" bet that "the US will invade Iran before 2027." The position has increased to 1,099,200 shares, with a total cost of approximately $286,200 and an average entry price of 26.03 cents. The contract is currently trading at 15.5 cents, bringing the position value down to about $170,400, with an unrealized loss of approximately $115,800, or a loss rate of 40.47%. Compared with the tracking on August 3, xm39 has since added about 161,500 shares with an additional investment of about $31,500, expanding his unrealized loss by about $53,300; no new prediction market trades have appeared today. Meanwhile, xm39 established a crude oil long position again this morning. As of noon, he had accumulated 88,000 WTI crude oil contracts (CL) through 873 trades, with a turnover of approximately $6.9127 million at an average price of $78.54. As of press time, the address holds the position at 20x full margin, with unrealized profit of about $15,700, a return rate of approximately 4.53%, and a liquidation price of $75.75. Almost at the same time as starting to buy crude oil, xm39 also opened a short position of 24.31 XYZ100 contracts at an average price of 29,729.68 points, with a turnover of about $722,700. He currently holds a total of 80.28 short XYZ100 contracts, with a position value of about $2.3976 million, an average price of 29,654.27 points, an unrealized loss of about $16,900, and a liquidation price of 32,984.70 points. The combined notional value of the two positions is approximately $9.3259 million, with unrealized gains and losses roughly offsetting, resulting in a total net unrealized loss of about $1,258. He also has a resting buy order of 20 XYZ100 contracts "reduce only" at 29,388 points, with a notional amount of approximately $587,800, planning to reduce approximately 24.9% of his existing short position. Currently, he continues to bet on US military action against Iran on Polymarket, while on Hyperliquid he has re-entered long crude oil and shorted a Nasdaq-mapped contract. Both ends point to the macro direction of war escalation, stronger oil prices, and pressure on risk assets. It is reported that among the 65 closed positions the trader has on Polymarket, none belong to US-Iran, Iran, or Hormuz-related markets. In crude oil trading, his long positions have a record of 4 wins and 1 loss in 5 rounds, a win rate of 80%; his only short position earned about $17,200 in profit. Previous news: Trader "xm39" cleared positions just in time to avoid the crude oil plunge, but rebuilt a $10 million crude oil long position after the "stop fighting" news. The on-chain Perp and address analysis tool TradingBeats is now live, supporting real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, from address tracing to whale operations, with in-depth analysis and full visibility.
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DisclaimerThe content above does not represent HTX's positions.HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.

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