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On July 7, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if used appropriately, the practice of signaling future interest rate paths can still play a positive role. Waller made these remarks at a conference in Rome. Previously, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged to reduce the Fed's reliance on so-called 'forward guidance' and instead adopt a more data-driven approach to policy adjustments. Waller emphasized that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool. During the surge in inflation amid the pandemic, forward guidance helped the central bank communicate that interest rates would rise. Even before the Fed officially raised rates, the financial environment had already begun to tighten. However, he also noted that Fed officials sometimes become too rigid in their use of forward guidance, which can constrain their policy flexibility. He cited the example from 2020 and 2021 when the Fed explicitly stated it would keep rates unchanged for a period, even as inflation was already beginning to rise rapidly.

[Fed Governor Waller Defends Forward Guidance, Claims Proper Use Can Be Beneficial]On July 7, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if used appropriately, the practice of signaling future interest rate paths can still play a positive role. Waller made these remarks at a conference in Rome. Previously, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged to reduce the Fed's reliance on so-called 'forward guidance' and instead adopt a more data-driven approach to policy adjustments. Waller emphasized that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool. During the surge in inflation amid the pandemic, forward guidance helped the central bank communicate that interest rates would rise. Even before the Fed officially raised rates, the financial environment had already begun to tighten. However, he also noted that Fed officials sometimes become too rigid in their use of forward guidance, which can constrain their policy flexibility. He cited the example from 2020 and 2021 when the Fed explicitly stated it would keep rates unchanged for a period, even as inflation was already beginning to rise rapidly.

Fed Governor Waller Defends Forward Guidance, Claims Proper Use Can Be Beneficial

On July 7, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the U.S. labor market has stabilized, while inflation is accelerating again. Currently, inflation risks have surpassed employment risks, marking a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He pointed out that last year, rate cuts were supported due to a weak labor market, but now the policy focus should shift back to curbing inflation. The market is currently turning its attention to the June CPI, which will be released on July 14, as it is the last key inflation data before the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29. Despite international oil prices falling to around $70 per barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to be significantly above the 2% target by the end of the year. The market anticipates that the Fed will raise interest rates by September at the latest, with a roughly 25% probability of a rate hike in July, as several officials have signaled further tightening of policies.

[Waller: Inflation Risks Now Exceed Employment Risks, Market Focuses on July CPI]On July 7, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the U.S. labor market has stabilized, while inflation is accelerating again. Currently, inflation risks have surpassed employment risks, marking a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He pointed out that last year, rate cuts were supported due to a weak labor market, but now the policy focus should shift back to curbing inflation. The market is currently turning its attention to the June CPI, which will be released on July 14, as it is the last key inflation data before the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29. Despite international oil prices falling to around $70 per barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to be significantly above the 2% target by the end of the year. The market anticipates that the Fed will raise interest rates by September at the latest, with a roughly 25% probability of a rate hike in July, as several officials have signaled further tightening of policies.

Waller: Inflation Risks Now Exceed Employment Risks, Market Focuses on July CPI

On July 7, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage was $2.719 billion, compared to $2.175 billion on the previous trading day.

[Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse Repo Usage at $2.719 Billion]On July 7, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage was $2.719 billion, compared to $2.175 billion on the previous trading day.

Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse Repo Usage at $2.719 Billion

On July 7, a spokesperson for NVIDIA responded that the company's product roadmap remains unaffected. This comes after research firm SemiAnalysis stated that NVIDIA's next-generation AI computing architecture, Kyber, may be delayed by 12 months to 2028 due to development setbacks, with the architecture originally planned for the next-generation Rubin Ultra GPU. Mizuho Securities analyst Jordan Klein noted that the market has seen similar rumors of NVIDIA's product delays multiple times, describing such news as more of a 'sensational noise.' The impact of the rumors was limited, as NVIDIA's stock still rose approximately 1.2% during intraday trading on Monday. Kyber is seen as a significant upgrade to NVIDIA's data center architecture, featuring a new vertical rack design aimed at enhancing computing density and reducing network latency, while also expected to boost demand in the data center co-packaged optics (CPO) supply chain.

[NVIDIA Denies Kyber Delay Rumors: Product Roadmap Unaffected]On July 7, a spokesperson for NVIDIA responded that the company's product roadmap remains unaffected. This comes after research firm SemiAnalysis stated that NVIDIA's next-generation AI computing architecture, Kyber, may be delayed by 12 months to 2028 due to development setbacks, with the architecture originally planned for the next-generation Rubin Ultra GPU. Mizuho Securities analyst Jordan Klein noted that the market has seen similar rumors of NVIDIA's product delays multiple times, describing such news as more of a 'sensational noise.' The impact of the rumors was limited, as NVIDIA's stock still rose approximately 1.2% during intraday trading on Monday. Kyber is seen as a significant upgrade to NVIDIA's data center architecture, featuring a new vertical rack design aimed at enhancing computing density and reducing network latency, while also expected to boost demand in the data center co-packaged optics (CPO) supply chain.

NVIDIA Denies Kyber Delay Rumors: Product Roadmap Unaffected

On July 7, US space stocks continued to decline, with SpaceX dropping nearly 3% as it is set to be included in the Nasdaq 100. Rocket Lab fell over 7%, and AST SpaceMobile dropped more than 5%.

[US Space Stocks Continue Decline, SpaceX Drops Nearly 3%]On July 7, US space stocks continued to decline, with SpaceX dropping nearly 3% as it is set to be included in the Nasdaq 100. Rocket Lab fell over 7%, and AST SpaceMobile dropped more than 5%.

US Space Stocks Continue Decline, SpaceX Drops Nearly 3%

On July 7, data from the U.S. Department of Energy showed that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil inventory decreased by approximately 6.2 million barrels last week, dropping to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983. This inventory decline is part of the U.S. commitment to release a total of 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

[U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983]On July 7, data from the U.S. Department of Energy showed that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil inventory decreased by approximately 6.2 million barrels last week, dropping to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983. This inventory decline is part of the U.S. commitment to release a total of 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983

On July 7, Anthropic signed a lease for TeraWulf's data center located in Kentucky.

[Anthropic Signs Lease for TeraWulf Data Center in Kentucky]On July 7, Anthropic signed a lease for TeraWulf's data center located in Kentucky.

Anthropic Signs Lease for TeraWulf Data Center in Kentucky

On July 7, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed will not intentionally maintain low interest rates to assist the U.S. government in financing its budget deficit. He noted that considering the establishment of an inflation target range is reasonable. Fed Chairman Waller reiterated the commitment to the 2% target, expressing a preference for setting the inflation target as a range. However, adjusting the inflation target at this stage would undermine the Fed's credibility.

[Fed Governor Waller: Fed Will Not Intentionally Maintain Low Interest Rates]On July 7, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed will not intentionally maintain low interest rates to assist the U.S. government in financing its budget deficit. He noted that considering the establishment of an inflation target range is reasonable. Fed Chairman Waller reiterated the commitment to the 2% target, expressing a preference for setting the inflation target as a range. However, adjusting the inflation target at this stage would undermine the Fed's credibility.

Fed Governor Waller: Fed Will Not Intentionally Maintain Low Interest Rates

On July 7, The Kobeissi Letter stated that it currently believes the S&P 500 index is preparing to break above 8000 points, as chip stocks have quietly become the new leading sector in this bull market. Although many of the 'Seven Giants' of US stocks have fallen more than 20% from recent highs, semiconductor stocks have taken over market leadership. This year, 8 out of the 10 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 are from the chip industry. Despite the weakness of large tech stocks that have led the market since 2022, the S&P 500 is currently only about 1% below its historical high. This marks the first time since 2022 that the market has risen under the leadership of sectors outside the 'Seven Giants,' while the 'Seven Giants' have shown contrary trends. The report suggests that this rotation is positive, as the 'Seven Giants' are preparing to take the lead again. As large-cap tech stocks begin to regain leadership, while semiconductors continue to outperform or even cool down, the S&P 500 is expected to rise above 8000 points. Asset holders will continue to benefit.

[Opinion: Chip Stocks Become New Driving Force of US Bull Market, S&P 500 Poised to Break 8000 Points]On July 7, The Kobeissi Letter stated that it currently believes the S&P 500 index is preparing to break above 8000 points, as chip stocks have quietly become the new leading sector in this bull market. Although many of the 'Seven Giants' of US stocks have fallen more than 20% from recent highs, semiconductor stocks have taken over market leadership. This year, 8 out of the 10 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 are from the chip industry. Despite the weakness of large tech stocks that have led the market since 2022, the S&P 500 is currently only about 1% below its historical high. This marks the first time since 2022 that the market has risen under the leadership of sectors outside the 'Seven Giants,' while the 'Seven Giants' have shown contrary trends. The report suggests that this rotation is positive, as the 'Seven Giants' are preparing to take the lead again. As large-cap tech stocks begin to regain leadership, while semiconductors continue to outperform or even cool down, the S&P 500 is expected to rise above 8000 points. Asset holders will continue to benefit.

Opinion: Chip Stocks Become New Driving Force of US Bull Market, S&P 500 Poised to Break 8000 Points

6 июля управляющий ФРС Уоллер заявил, что прогнозирование должно быть гибким. Если оно недостаточно гибкое, то прогнозирование может стать препятствием. В некоторых случаях лучше вообще не использовать прогнозирование.

[Fed Governor Waller: В некоторых случаях лучше вообще не использовать прогнозирование]6 июля управляющий ФРС Уоллер заявил, что прогнозирование должно быть гибким. Если оно недостаточно гибкое, то прогнозирование может стать препятствием. В некоторых случаях лучше вообще не использовать прогнозирование.

Fed Governor Waller: В некоторых случаях лучше вообще не использовать прогнозирование

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Fed Governor Waller: В некоторых случаях лучше вообще не использовать прогнозирование

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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