Bitcoin targets $98k – Decoding the liquidity vs. peak cycle debate

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-19Last updated on 2026-01-19

Abstract

Bitcoin's cycle is not showing signs of an early peak despite some long-term projections, as global liquidity conditions remain supportive and have even reached new highs. This environment continues to benefit risk assets like BTC. Market risk is being redistributed rather than exiting, with short-term holders in profit and mid-term holders absorbing losses patiently. Price-wise, Bitcoin is consolidating around $95,000 after rebounding from the $91,000–$92,000 support zone. The immediate resistance lies at $97,000–$98,000. Technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest positive momentum, albeit slightly slowed. If BTC holds above $95K, further upside is likely. Overall, bullish sentiment prevails due to strong liquidity and reduced selling pressure.

Bitcoin [BTC] isn’t quite done yet.

Despite long-term cycle projections indicating a potential peak in the current times, liquidity conditions remain supportive. At the same time, risk is changing hands rather than leaving the market.

What’s next?

Liquidity trends challenge early cycle peak

It is widely believed that Bitcoin’s cycle could peak around early 2026, but those views are mostly based on past patterns. Right now, it looks different, with no clear signs that global liquidity will coil in the coming months.

Source: X

Instead, conditions remain supportive, which has so far helped risk assets like Bitcoin [BTC] perform well. Notably, the Global Liquidity Index has reached a new high for this cycle, so money conditions are still expanding.

Markets do not always follow fixed timelines, and Bitcoin has often moved with changes in liquidity.

Ergo, the chances of Bitcoin seeing upside look much stronger than a cycle top.

Now, as this happens…

…here’s how Bitcoin is handling this phase of the cycle.

Looking at the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands, risk is being redistributed.

STHs are sitting comfortably in profit, with their realized prices below the Spot level near $95,500. That means recent buyers aren’t under pressure, reducing the chances of fear.

Source: CryptoQuant

Actually, it’s the mid-term holders who have the weight of the world on them. Both the 3-6 month and 6-12 month cohorts are underwater, but it looks like losses are being absorbed in patience.

From a price POV

Bitcoin is taking a moment. At press time, BTC was holding near $95,000 after a strong rebound from the $91,000-$92,000 demand zone. This is a level given strength by visible volume support on the chart. That area is now a key downside cushion.

Source: TradingView

On the upside, $97,000-$98,000 was the immediate resistance, where recent attempts stalled. RSI held above 60, while the MACD was positive, though momentum has slowed just a tad.

BTC looks like it’s consolidating, and if it holds above $95K, a push ahead is on the table.


Final Thoughts

  • Bitcoin traders are bullish as global liquidity hits new cycle highs with minimal pressure.
  • With BTC holding above $95K, risk appears redistributed. Upside possibilities are high.
Next: ‘Ethereum must remove features to survive’ says Vitalik – But why?
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Related Questions

QWhat is the Global Liquidity Index indicating about the current market cycle for Bitcoin?

AThe Global Liquidity Index has reached a new high for the current cycle, indicating that money conditions are still expanding and remain supportive for risk assets like Bitcoin.

QAccording to the UTXO Age Bands analysis, which group of Bitcoin holders is currently 'underwater'?

AThe mid-term holders, specifically the 3-6 month and 6-12 month cohorts, are underwater, meaning their realized prices are above the current spot price, but losses are being absorbed patiently.

QWhat is the key downside support level for Bitcoin's price mentioned in the article?

AThe $91,000-$92,000 demand zone is identified as a key downside cushion, given its visible volume support on the chart.

QWhat is the immediate resistance level that Bitcoin's price is facing?

AThe immediate resistance level is $97,000-$98,000, where recent price advances have stalled.

QWhat are the two final thoughts the article presents about Bitcoin's current state?

AThe two final thoughts are: 1) Bitcoin traders are bullish as global liquidity hits new cycle highs with minimal pressure, and 2) With BTC holding above $95K, risk appears redistributed and upside possibilities are high.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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