Original Author: Zhao Ying
Original Source: Wall Street News
The ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is unfolding precisely according to a repeatedly validated script.
The independent U.S. macro research firm The Kobeissi Letter recently stated that with Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S., Iran, and Israel, the ninth step of the "conflict script" it has been tracking has officially arrived, namely the agreement's conclusion and the construction of a narrative framework. This arrival is about 10 days later than the firm's previous expectation.
The Kobeissi Letter stated that, according to Trump's playbook, every major confrontation within Trump's framework ultimately concludes with a narrative of "maximum pressure in exchange for concessions."
The potential impact of this development on the market cannot be ignored. The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the tenth step—the violent market repricing following the formal announcement of the agreement—will arrive in the coming weeks. At that time, investors who have long held defensive positions will face pressure to rapidly close their positions, potentially leading to a sharp rally in stocks, while oil prices may plummet swiftly as expectations for the reopening of shipping routes solidify.
Ceasefire and Tariff Suspension: The Same Logic
According to CCTV News, a message from the Iranian side in the early hours of the 8th local time stated that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited Iranian and U.S. delegations to the capital, Islamabad, for negotiations. Shehbaz Sharif also stated that the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. would take effect at 3:30 AM Iran time (8:00 AM Beijing time) on the 8th. Trump stated that this ceasefire window would be used to "finalize and facilitate" the signing of a lasting peace agreement among the parties.
The Kobeissi Letter compared this two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire to Trump's announcement of a "90-day tariff suspension" in April 2025, noting that the two are highly similar in nature.
On April 9, 2025, against the backdrop of severe bond market turbulence, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariff increases on most trading partners. In the following weeks, the U.S.-China trade agreement was subsequently finalized, and the market did not retest its previous lows. The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the timing of this ceasefire announcement is almost exactly one year apart from the aforementioned tariff suspension.
The firm believes this pattern is not coincidental. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has followed a highly consistent negotiation logic in tariff wars, Venezuela, Greenland negotiations, and the Iran issue: verbal pressure, maximum pressure to extract concessions, ultimately concluding with a "deal."
Step Nine: Constructing the Agreement Narrative
According to the 10-step "conflict script" outlined by The Kobeissi Letter, the core of the ninth step is the agreement's conclusion and the construction of its narrative framework.
The firm pointed out that every major confrontation within Trump's framework ultimately concludes with the narrative of "maximum pressure in exchange for concessions." This pattern has been confirmed in trade agreements with the EU and India, corporate negotiations in sectors like Intel and rare earths, as well as the multiple conflicts Trump helped end in 2025.
Regarding the Iran issue, The Kobeissi Letter believes that if the Iranian government does not collapse, the final agreement might involve a ceasefire arrangement linked to the nuclear issue, a regional security framework with enforcement mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment plan conditional on compliance benchmarks. The firm emphasized that "the specific architecture is far less important than the timing and the narrative framework."
Step Ten: Awaiting the Violent Repricing
The Kobeissi Letter warns investors that market repricing following an agreement announcement is often sudden, not gradual.
The reason is that current market participants are generally in defensive positions—energy exposure is high, stock risk has been compressed, and volatility remains elevated due to implicit uncertainty. Once this uncertainty abruptly dissipates, these positions will be closed rapidly, creating a concentrated market shock.
Citing historical cases from April, August, and October 2025, and January 2026, the firm pointed out that following the announcement of each tariff suspension or framework agreement, the stock market experienced significant sharp rallies, while oil prices plummeted swiftly as expectations for the reopening of shipping routes solidified. The Kobeissi Letter concluded: "Pattern recognition holds extremely high profit value in this market."
