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Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held its first FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The central bank issued a significantly shortened policy statement, explicitly removing forward guidance. Chair Warsh delivered a strong, unified commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target, stating the FOMC has the "capability and the commitment" to restore price stability and sees no need to review the target itself at this time. Warsh announced the immediate formation of five special working groups to examine and propose improvements in key areas by year-end: Fed communication, the balance sheet (including a review of the $6.7 trillion portfolio and its role in policy), data sources and methodology, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. In a break from tradition, Chair Warsh did not submit his own economic projections or "dot plot." The submitted Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a split among other officials: half anticipate at least one rate hike this year, while half expect rates to remain steady or fall. The median projection sees the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2026. Warsh characterized the current policy stance as "uneven," noting restrictive effects in sectors like housing but less so in financial markets. He emphasized a desire to move away from a market dynamic overly focused on Fed signaling, advocating for markets to react more to economic data. On AI, he called it potentially the most significant economic change in his adult life, driving clear demand but with uncertain timing and scale on the supply side, creating a "race" between the two.

链捕手Hace 11 hora(s)

Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

链捕手Hace 11 hora(s)

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected in its June meeting, the first under new Chair Warsh. While the key dot plot of rate projections remained, Warsh notably did not submit his own forecast, signaling a deliberate move to weaken its forward guidance role. He emphasized a data-dependent approach, refusing to provide clear future policy signals and advocating for more restrained communication. The market interpreted this shift as heightening inflation constraints and the possibility of more aggressive tightening. Consequently, market pricing quickly adjusted: rate hike expectations for later in the year increased, U.S. stocks sold off, and the dollar strengthened. Warsh's debut suggests a fundamental change in Fed communication—moving away from "explaining the future" to merely "describing current assessments"—which could force markets to fundamentally reprice assets in a less predictable policy environment.

Odaily星球日报Hace 12 hora(s)

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

Odaily星球日报Hace 12 hora(s)

Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

U.S. Federal Reserve officials who previously advocated for rate cuts, including Governor Christopher Waller, have recently shifted their stance, with many now not ruling out the possibility of future rate hikes. This sets a challenging stage for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting. Appointed by President Trump based on his dovish views, Warsh now faces a committee where the debate has pivoted from "when to cut" to "whether to hike," driven by persistent inflation above 3%, a strong labor market, and supply-side pressures from AI infrastructure demands and geopolitical tensions. Key figures illustrate the shift. Governor Waller, once concerned about employment, now says data has pushed him toward considering rate increases. Even moderate voices like Governor Lisa Cook, while expecting inflation to ease, have indicated readiness to hike if it fails to do so. Long-time hawks such as regional Fed presidents Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, and Neel Kashkari have grown more vocal, arguing that the real policy rate is effectively falling and that action may soon be needed. The upcoming Fed meeting is expected to keep rates steady but will likely remove the "easing bias" from its statement, signaling a neutral stance between cuts and hikes. The quarterly "dot plot" is anticipated to show most officials projecting no cuts this year, with some potentially indicating hikes. Chair Warsh, a critic of the Fed's reliance on forward guidance like the dot plot, must navigate communicating this pivot using tools he has questioned, all while steering policy in a direction counter to the preferences of the president who appointed him. The consensus suggests the Fed's next move could well be a rate increase.

marsbitAyer 05:21

Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

marsbitAyer 05:21

The Richest Fed Chair in 112 Years Is Here: Kevin Warsh Is Rewriting the Rules

Kevin Warsh, with a personal fortune exceeding $130 million, became the 112nd and wealthiest Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve on May 22nd. A former Wall Street investment banker and key figure during the 2008 financial crisis, Warsh lacks a traditional academic background for a central banker but brings deep market experience. He proposes an unconventional policy approach of simultaneously reducing the Fed's balance sheet ("quantitative tightening") while cutting interest rates, arguing that a smaller balance sheet would allow for more effective rate policy. His ascent marks a potential regime change at the Fed. Warsh aims to reform the institution's decision-making processes, tighten communication discipline among officials, and reduce reliance on forward guidance like the "dot plot." This shift responds to the Fed's current dilemma: fiscal policy is expanding the government's balance sheet through deficits, while monetary policy's ability to shrink its own $6.7 trillion balance sheet is severely constrained, creating pressure on long-term interest rates. Analysts expect Warsh's tenure to sustain high volatility in the U.S. Treasury market due to persistent supply pressures. Furthermore, his leadership coincides with a gradual, structural erosion of dollar dominance, evidenced by its declining share in global reserves and cracks in the petrodollar system, with increased use of alternatives like the Chinese yuan in oil trade. For investors, this environment underscores the importance of portfolio diversification, including assets like gold and Chinese sovereign bonds, amid a fluctuating dollar credit anchor.

链捕手05/25 06:13

The Richest Fed Chair in 112 Years Is Here: Kevin Warsh Is Rewriting the Rules

链捕手05/25 06:13

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

On his first day in office, newly inaugurated Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh received a stark market warning, with expectations now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike this year. The shift was triggered by hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that inflation is now the key policy "driver" and that the odds of a hike or cut are evenly split. This sent short-term Treasury yields higher. Waller signaled a significant pivot in his stance, citing disappointing inflation and labor data. He suggested removing "easing bias" language from Fed statements and did not rule out future rate increases if inflation fails to recede, though he noted immediate action isn't warranted without signs of unanchored inflation expectations. Chairman Warsh faces immediate pressure at his first FOMC meeting in June. With the preferred inflation gauge at a three-year high, analysts warn that failing to hike could be interpreted as an implicit easing of policy. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is adding to existing price pressures. The market's expectation for a hike contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts for multiple cuts. While long-term Treasury yields have been contained by lower energy prices recently, analysts note they remain under structural upward pressure. Warsh's swearing-in at the White House highlights political scrutiny over Fed independence. However, the market has made it clear that inflation is the most urgent challenge, leaving the new chairman little time to settle in.

marsbit05/23 05:17

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

marsbit05/23 05:17

Will Warsh Compromise with Trump? A Look at the 70-Year Power Struggle Between the President and the Fed

Will the Fed's new chair, Kevin Warsh, yield to pressure from President Trump? A White House-administered oath ceremony for Warsh breaks recent precedent, spotlighting a seven-decade power struggle between the presidency and the Federal Reserve. Historically, each Fed chair has balanced political pressure with policy independence. Warsh's situation, however, is uniquely complex, inheriting a divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with some members opposing even hints of rate cuts, while Trump expects easing. The report from Caitong Securities reviews this history: from William Martin establishing independence, to Arthur Burns compromising under Nixon, Paul Volcker building institutional credibility, Alan Greenspan navigating political waters, and Jerome Powell facing severe pressure from Trump, ultimately hardening the Fed's defensive stance. Warsh, a former Fed governor known for questioning quantitative easing, is not a traditional dove. His recent statements emphasize a nuanced view of Fed independence, skepticism of forward guidance, serious concern over inflation (contradicting Trump's "fake inflation" claims), and the potential for AI-driven productivity gains to allow rate cuts. The analysis concludes Warsh's policy will likely feature a clear direction but cautious pace. Rate cuts are probable but constrained by persistent inflation above target; if Trump pressures heavily, Warsh may delay cuts to defend Fed independence. Balance sheet reduction is seen as necessary but will be gradual to avoid premature conflict. Ultimately, Warsh's path will depend more on macroeconomic trends—inflation, growth, oil prices—than on his personal stance or the immediate political relationship.

marsbit05/22 01:57

Will Warsh Compromise with Trump? A Look at the 70-Year Power Struggle Between the President and the Fed

marsbit05/22 01:57

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

Walsh's First Dilemma: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Divided Fed Kevin Warsh officially assumed the Fed Chairmanship on May 15th, inheriting a central bank deeply divided over inflation. Contrary to market expectations of a dovish stance due to his appointment by President Trump, Warsh's historical record shows early and consistent hawkish concerns about inflation. The Fed he leads is fractured, with three FOMC members recently dissenting against even hinting at future rate cuts. The immediate challenge is surging inflation. While the Iran-related oil shock is a temporary factor, core CPI and services inflation are accelerating, showing signs of becoming entrenched—echoing the Fed's 2022 "transitory" misstep. Warsh faces the task of building consensus within a committee where several members believe policy may not be restrictive enough, especially if the neutral interest rate (r-star) is higher than currently estimated. Politically, Warsh is caught between Trump's desire for rate cuts and the economic reality of persistent price pressures. Any move perceived as bowing to political pressure could undermine Fed independence. Market implications are significant. Long-term Treasury yields (e.g., 30-year at 5.19%) could rise further, especially if the June FOMC statement hints at possible tightening. Tech stocks face continued valuation pressure from higher rates. The key variable is progress in Iran negotiations; a breakthrough before the June meeting could temporarily ease oil-driven inflation, but stubborn services inflation would remain. All eyes are on Warsh's first post-FOMC press conference on June 17th. His wording on inflation and policy will reveal how much the market has mispriced his stance and the Fed's likely path forward.

marsbit05/20 10:01

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

marsbit05/20 10:01

Trump to Swear in Warsh at White House, Markets Watch: Will He Heed President's Call for Rate Cuts?

According to a White House official, President Trump will personally preside over the swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the White House on Friday. Warsh, set to become the 17th Fed chair and its wealthiest ever, succeeds Jerome Powell. The White House ceremony underscores Trump's high level of personal interest in this appointment, contrasting with Powell's 2018 internal Fed swearing-in, which Trump did not attend. This marks the first White House Fed chair oath-taking since Alan Greenspan in 1987. The ceremony concludes an unusually prolonged transition at the central bank. Powell, whose term ended last weekend, has remained as acting chair pending Warsh's Senate confirmation and will stay on the Fed Board for an unspecified period. Warsh assumes leadership at a complex time, with the U.S.-Israel war on Iran exacerbating inflationary pressures and complicating the policy outlook. Critics have raised concerns about his independence from the White House. While Trump has expressed expectations for near-term rate cuts, Warsh pledged independence during his confirmation hearings but also sharply criticized the Fed's recent performance.

marsbit05/19 02:02

Trump to Swear in Warsh at White House, Markets Watch: Will He Heed President's Call for Rate Cuts?

marsbit05/19 02:02

Warsh Hearing Concludes: What Are the Notable Signals for the Crypto Industry?

The Senate Banking Committee held a confirmation hearing for Judy Shelton, a Federal Reserve nominee, who faced intense questioning regarding her ability to maintain the central bank's independence amid pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates. Shelton denied any pre-arranged commitments on rate cuts and emphasized her independence, though Democrats remained skeptical, citing contradictions with Trump's public statements. Shelton characterized post-pandemic inflation as a major policy failure and called for a "regime change" in the Fed’s approach, including reforms to inflation measurement and communication strategies. She criticized the current practice of Fed officials frequently signaling future rate moves and did not commit to maintaining post-meeting press conferences, suggesting potential reductions in transparency. Regarding crypto markets, Shelton’s extensive investments in digital asset companies—including Solana, DeFi, and blockchain infrastructure—were noted, though she has pledged to divest these holdings due to ethics rules. Her familiarity with the crypto industry and deregulatory leanings may signal a more open, though cautious, stance toward digital assets. However, concerns were raised about potential conflicts of interest, especially given Trump family involvement in crypto-financial ventures. The timing of her confirmation remains uncertain, pending a Justice Department investigation into current Chair Powell. Shelton’s potential leadership could lead to a more hawkish, productivity-focused Fed with tighter policy communication—factors that may significantly influence liquidity conditions and macro narratives for crypto markets.

marsbit04/22 13:34

Warsh Hearing Concludes: What Are the Notable Signals for the Crypto Industry?

marsbit04/22 13:34

"Form Over Substance" Fed Hearing: Warsh Avoids Interest Rates, But Offers Reassurance for Crypto

Kevin Wash, nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, testified before the Senate Banking Committee, emphasizing his independence from former President Trump and stating that Trump never asked him to commit to specific interest rate decisions. Wash avoided extensive discussion on monetary policy but called for institutional reforms at the Fed, advocating for a gradual and cautious reduction of the balance sheet without clear signals on rate cuts. The hearing was seen as largely symbolic, with Wash’s confirmation hinging on political negotiations offstage, particularly whether Trump drops his investigation into current Chair Powell. Notably, Wash expressed a crypto-friendly stance, acknowledging digital assets as part of the U.S. financial services industry and committing to divest his own crypto holdings if confirmed. This marks a positive signal for the crypto market from a potential Fed leader.

Odaily星球日报04/22 12:05

"Form Over Substance" Fed Hearing: Warsh Avoids Interest Rates, But Offers Reassurance for Crypto

Odaily星球日报04/22 12:05

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