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Warsh Has Only Two Paths Ahead: Either Trigger "Financial Crisis 2.0" or Ignite "Dollar Crisis 1.0"?

In a critical analysis, economist aka Shan argues that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces two stark policy choices, either of which could lead to a severe economic crisis comparable to the Great Depression. Warsh has publicly committed to bringing inflation down to 2%, but with the US CPI averaging over 3% for the past decade, the task is monumental. Shan outlines two potential paths: First, maintaining a hawkish stance with continued rate hikes, quantitative tightening, and fiscal consolidation would pop the simultaneous and dangerously large AI, real estate, and private credit bubbles, triggering a "Global Financial Crisis 2.0" more severe than 2008. Second, caving to political pressure and reverting to zero-interest-rate policy and quantitative easing would accelerate the collapse of the dollar's purchasing power, leading to a "Global Currency Crisis 1.0." Shan emphasizes there is no middle ground. The analysis highlights the role of Cantillon Effects, explaining how money created from 2008-2020 flowed unevenly into financial assets, suppressing commodity prices. A critical shift occurred in 2022 as commodities began to catch up, locking in high inflation pressure for years. Given this backdrop and immense political pressure during a future "Lehman moment," Shan concludes the probability of Warsh sticking to a truly hawkish policy is "extremely low, close to zero." The more politically expedient path of renewed monetary easing, despite its long-term consequences for the dollar, is seen as the likely outcome.

marsbit08/05 11:06

Warsh Has Only Two Paths Ahead: Either Trigger "Financial Crisis 2.0" or Ignite "Dollar Crisis 1.0"?

marsbit08/05 11:06

Fed Drops 'Hawkish Bomb' Late at Night: Interest Rates on Hold, Internal Divisions Unseen in a Decade

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, marking the fifth consecutive pause since late 2026. While the decision was widely expected, it revealed a significant internal rift. Three FOMC voting members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—dissented, advocating for a 25-basis-point hike. This level of opposition, the first of its kind since 2016, signals persistent hawkish pressure. Chairman Wash, in a post-meeting press conference, delivered a firm message, emphasizing an unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target and stating the Fed "would not hesitate to act." He announced a substantial shift away from forward guidance, urging markets to interpret economic data independently. Wash also highlighted AI-related capital spending as a key variable, noting its potential dual impact on boosting productivity while potentially pushing up certain prices. Market reaction was pronounced. Stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping over 2% for its worst day in 15 months. Long-term Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest since 2007, while the dollar weakened and gold briefly rose above $4,100. The combination of internal policy dissent and a shift toward data-dependent communication introduced significant uncertainty into the market outlook.

marsbit07/30 01:44

Fed Drops 'Hawkish Bomb' Late at Night: Interest Rates on Hold, Internal Divisions Unseen in a Decade

marsbit07/30 01:44

Warsh Concludes Capitol Hill Visit! A Breakdown: What Did He Say Over These Two Days?

Walsh Concludes Capitol Hill Testimony: Key Takeaways on Independence, Inflation, and AI In his first congressional hearings as Fed Chair, Kevin Walsh faced intense scrutiny over the central bank's independence, internal reforms, and policy transparency. Over two days before House and Senate committees, lawmakers, particularly Democrats, questioned his ties to the Trump administration and recent initiatives like an AI task force led by venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. Walsh staunchly defended the Fed's independence, stating, "Trump selected an independent person to do an independent job," and vowed to ignore political pressure on interest rates. He emphasized a "zero tolerance" approach to inflation, downplaying the significance of a single favorable CPI report and signaling that rate hikes remain an option to restore price stability. He addressed criticism of the Andreessen-led AI working group by clarifying it only has an advisory role. On AI's economic impact, Walsh suggested the investment boom might not be inherently inflationary and could boost productivity and wages over time. Regarding policy, Walsh reiterated his preference to move away from detailed forward guidance, promising all decisions would be released publicly and simultaneously. He framed his internal reform efforts, including five new working groups starting "from a blank slate," as necessary because past Fed policy contributed to current inflation. The hearings ended with a mix of skepticism and a "wait-and-see" attitude from Washington. While Walsh navigated the initial challenge through hawkish rhetoric and debate skills, observers noted his credibility will ultimately depend on concrete actions to fight inflation and safeguard the Fed's autonomy.

marsbit07/16 02:11

Warsh Concludes Capitol Hill Visit! A Breakdown: What Did He Say Over These Two Days?

marsbit07/16 02:11

Warsh’s First FOMC Chairmanship: Fed Provides Less Rate Guidance, Will US Bonds Become More Expensive?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting in June 2026 marked a shift in communication policy. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but removed some forward guidance from its statement, and Warsh did not submit his own "dot plot" interest rate forecast. The move reduces clear signals on future policy paths, which bond markets interpreted as introducing greater uncertainty. Consequently, short-term Treasury yields, like the 2-year, rose to multi-month highs as investors demanded higher yields to compensate for increased policy judgment risk. Warsh aims to break the "echo chamber" where markets overly focus on Fed signals rather than economic fundamentals. While some investors welcome potential reduced market speculation, others worry that less clarity will amplify volatility and raise borrowing costs. The review of Fed communication tools underscores a debate on balancing transparency with policy flexibility in a higher-rate environment.

marsbit06/23 10:31

Warsh’s First FOMC Chairmanship: Fed Provides Less Rate Guidance, Will US Bonds Become More Expensive?

marsbit06/23 10:31

Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held its first FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The central bank issued a significantly shortened policy statement, explicitly removing forward guidance. Chair Warsh delivered a strong, unified commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target, stating the FOMC has the "capability and the commitment" to restore price stability and sees no need to review the target itself at this time. Warsh announced the immediate formation of five special working groups to examine and propose improvements in key areas by year-end: Fed communication, the balance sheet (including a review of the $6.7 trillion portfolio and its role in policy), data sources and methodology, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. In a break from tradition, Chair Warsh did not submit his own economic projections or "dot plot." The submitted Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a split among other officials: half anticipate at least one rate hike this year, while half expect rates to remain steady or fall. The median projection sees the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2026. Warsh characterized the current policy stance as "uneven," noting restrictive effects in sectors like housing but less so in financial markets. He emphasized a desire to move away from a market dynamic overly focused on Fed signaling, advocating for markets to react more to economic data. On AI, he called it potentially the most significant economic change in his adult life, driving clear demand but with uncertain timing and scale on the supply side, creating a "race" between the two.

链捕手06/18 02:16

Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

链捕手06/18 02:16

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected in its June meeting, the first under new Chair Warsh. While the key dot plot of rate projections remained, Warsh notably did not submit his own forecast, signaling a deliberate move to weaken its forward guidance role. He emphasized a data-dependent approach, refusing to provide clear future policy signals and advocating for more restrained communication. The market interpreted this shift as heightening inflation constraints and the possibility of more aggressive tightening. Consequently, market pricing quickly adjusted: rate hike expectations for later in the year increased, U.S. stocks sold off, and the dollar strengthened. Warsh's debut suggests a fundamental change in Fed communication—moving away from "explaining the future" to merely "describing current assessments"—which could force markets to fundamentally reprice assets in a less predictable policy environment.

Odaily星球日报06/18 02:00

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

Odaily星球日报06/18 02:00

Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

U.S. Federal Reserve officials who previously advocated for rate cuts, including Governor Christopher Waller, have recently shifted their stance, with many now not ruling out the possibility of future rate hikes. This sets a challenging stage for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting. Appointed by President Trump based on his dovish views, Warsh now faces a committee where the debate has pivoted from "when to cut" to "whether to hike," driven by persistent inflation above 3%, a strong labor market, and supply-side pressures from AI infrastructure demands and geopolitical tensions. Key figures illustrate the shift. Governor Waller, once concerned about employment, now says data has pushed him toward considering rate increases. Even moderate voices like Governor Lisa Cook, while expecting inflation to ease, have indicated readiness to hike if it fails to do so. Long-time hawks such as regional Fed presidents Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, and Neel Kashkari have grown more vocal, arguing that the real policy rate is effectively falling and that action may soon be needed. The upcoming Fed meeting is expected to keep rates steady but will likely remove the "easing bias" from its statement, signaling a neutral stance between cuts and hikes. The quarterly "dot plot" is anticipated to show most officials projecting no cuts this year, with some potentially indicating hikes. Chair Warsh, a critic of the Fed's reliance on forward guidance like the dot plot, must navigate communicating this pivot using tools he has questioned, all while steering policy in a direction counter to the preferences of the president who appointed him. The consensus suggests the Fed's next move could well be a rate increase.

marsbit06/17 05:21

Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

marsbit06/17 05:21

The Richest Fed Chair in 112 Years Is Here: Kevin Warsh Is Rewriting the Rules

Kevin Warsh, with a personal fortune exceeding $130 million, became the 112nd and wealthiest Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve on May 22nd. A former Wall Street investment banker and key figure during the 2008 financial crisis, Warsh lacks a traditional academic background for a central banker but brings deep market experience. He proposes an unconventional policy approach of simultaneously reducing the Fed's balance sheet ("quantitative tightening") while cutting interest rates, arguing that a smaller balance sheet would allow for more effective rate policy. His ascent marks a potential regime change at the Fed. Warsh aims to reform the institution's decision-making processes, tighten communication discipline among officials, and reduce reliance on forward guidance like the "dot plot." This shift responds to the Fed's current dilemma: fiscal policy is expanding the government's balance sheet through deficits, while monetary policy's ability to shrink its own $6.7 trillion balance sheet is severely constrained, creating pressure on long-term interest rates. Analysts expect Warsh's tenure to sustain high volatility in the U.S. Treasury market due to persistent supply pressures. Furthermore, his leadership coincides with a gradual, structural erosion of dollar dominance, evidenced by its declining share in global reserves and cracks in the petrodollar system, with increased use of alternatives like the Chinese yuan in oil trade. For investors, this environment underscores the importance of portfolio diversification, including assets like gold and Chinese sovereign bonds, amid a fluctuating dollar credit anchor.

链捕手05/25 06:13

The Richest Fed Chair in 112 Years Is Here: Kevin Warsh Is Rewriting the Rules

链捕手05/25 06:13

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

On his first day in office, newly inaugurated Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh received a stark market warning, with expectations now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike this year. The shift was triggered by hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that inflation is now the key policy "driver" and that the odds of a hike or cut are evenly split. This sent short-term Treasury yields higher. Waller signaled a significant pivot in his stance, citing disappointing inflation and labor data. He suggested removing "easing bias" language from Fed statements and did not rule out future rate increases if inflation fails to recede, though he noted immediate action isn't warranted without signs of unanchored inflation expectations. Chairman Warsh faces immediate pressure at his first FOMC meeting in June. With the preferred inflation gauge at a three-year high, analysts warn that failing to hike could be interpreted as an implicit easing of policy. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is adding to existing price pressures. The market's expectation for a hike contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts for multiple cuts. While long-term Treasury yields have been contained by lower energy prices recently, analysts note they remain under structural upward pressure. Warsh's swearing-in at the White House highlights political scrutiny over Fed independence. However, the market has made it clear that inflation is the most urgent challenge, leaving the new chairman little time to settle in.

marsbit05/23 05:17

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

marsbit05/23 05:17

Will Warsh Compromise with Trump? A Look at the 70-Year Power Struggle Between the President and the Fed

Will the Fed's new chair, Kevin Warsh, yield to pressure from President Trump? A White House-administered oath ceremony for Warsh breaks recent precedent, spotlighting a seven-decade power struggle between the presidency and the Federal Reserve. Historically, each Fed chair has balanced political pressure with policy independence. Warsh's situation, however, is uniquely complex, inheriting a divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with some members opposing even hints of rate cuts, while Trump expects easing. The report from Caitong Securities reviews this history: from William Martin establishing independence, to Arthur Burns compromising under Nixon, Paul Volcker building institutional credibility, Alan Greenspan navigating political waters, and Jerome Powell facing severe pressure from Trump, ultimately hardening the Fed's defensive stance. Warsh, a former Fed governor known for questioning quantitative easing, is not a traditional dove. His recent statements emphasize a nuanced view of Fed independence, skepticism of forward guidance, serious concern over inflation (contradicting Trump's "fake inflation" claims), and the potential for AI-driven productivity gains to allow rate cuts. The analysis concludes Warsh's policy will likely feature a clear direction but cautious pace. Rate cuts are probable but constrained by persistent inflation above target; if Trump pressures heavily, Warsh may delay cuts to defend Fed independence. Balance sheet reduction is seen as necessary but will be gradual to avoid premature conflict. Ultimately, Warsh's path will depend more on macroeconomic trends—inflation, growth, oil prices—than on his personal stance or the immediate political relationship.

marsbit05/22 01:57

Will Warsh Compromise with Trump? A Look at the 70-Year Power Struggle Between the President and the Fed

marsbit05/22 01:57

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