Bitcoin: A structural shift is underway for BTC – Pressure builds under the surface
Bitcoin is experiencing a period of tight consolidation and muted volatility, with underlying pressure building as short-term holders (STHs) continue to realize losses and sell at a loss. This has resulted in deeply negative STH outflows and only 4.9% of the STH supply remaining in profit, creating significant price resistance. A major capitulation spike occurred in early February, with forced selling driving the price down sharply.
However, large holders (whales) are not selling into this pressure. Balances for the 10,000–100,000 BTC and 100,000–1,000,000 BTC cohorts remain steady, indicating deliberate holding and absorption of the supply from stressed sellers. This behavior limits downside follow-through and prevents broader liquidation cascades.
Concurrently, long-term holder (LTH) supply remains firm at around 14.8 million BTC, showing no signs of distribution. The monthly net position change has climbed to 353,000 BTC, marking the strongest accumulation since April 2025. Illiquid supply is also rising, indicating coins are moving into wallets with low spending intent. This redistribution of supply from weak hands to strong hands helps stabilize the price and increases the probability of a base formation rather than a further breakdown.
ambcrypto03/29 09:16
