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"The Big Short" Prototype Doubles Down on AI Crash Bets: Continues Shorting NVIDIA, Palantir, While Buying Software Stocks

"Big Short" legend Michael Burry is ramping up his bet against the AI frenzy. While the Nasdaq hits record highs and Nvidia's market cap nears $5.3 trillion, Burry is maintaining and expanding his bearish positions. He continues to hold put options on Nvidia and Palantir, has added direct short positions in Palantir, and expanded puts on semiconductor ETF SOXX, Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ, and Oracle. Simultaneously, he is buying traditional software stocks like Adobe, Autodesk, Salesforce, and Veeva Systems, which he sees as unfairly punished by the AI narrative. This creates a complete long-short hedge portfolio betting on an "AI bubble repricing." Burry's thesis is that AI infrastructure is overbuilt, comparing Nvidia to Cisco during the dot-com bubble. He argues major cloud providers are extending GPU depreciation schedules to inflate profits and that demand projections are overly optimistic. While his Palantir short is currently profitable, his Nvidia puts are deeply underwater as the stock nears all-time highs. He remains undeterred, believing a market correction will see overvalued AI beneficiaries fall and oversold "AI loser" stocks rebound.

marsbit05/11 03:11

"The Big Short" Prototype Doubles Down on AI Crash Bets: Continues Shorting NVIDIA, Palantir, While Buying Software Stocks

marsbit05/11 03:11

The "Big Short" Prototype Makes a Major Bet: Shorting Nvidia, Going Long on Software Stocks 'Scared Away' by AI

'The Big Short' Legend Michael Burry Doubles Down on AI Bet: Shorts Nvidia, Buys Beaten-Down Software Stocks As the Nasdaq hits record highs and Nvidia's market cap nears $5.3 trillion, Michael Burry—famed for his 2008 subprime mortgage bet—is making a major contrarian move. He is significantly expanding his bearish wagers against the AI frenzy while buying traditional software stocks he believes have been unfairly punished. Burry's latest portfolio adjustments, revealed in his Substack column, include maintaining and increasing put options on Nvidia and Palantir. He has also initiated new short positions on Palantir and expanded bearish bets on the semiconductor ETF (SOXX), the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), and Oracle. Simultaneously, he is buying shares of software companies like Adobe, Autodesk, Salesforce, and Veeva Systems. He argues these stocks have been sold off due to "AI disruption" fears and technical selling pressure from private credit funds, not deteriorating fundamentals. Their valuations have fallen to multi-year lows. This creates a complete hedge: short the perceived "AI winners" and long the oversold "AI losers." Burry believes the current AI infrastructure spending boom mirrors the late-1990s internet bubble, with inflated demand projections and questionable accounting practices by large cloud customers extending GPU depreciation schedules. While his Palantir short is currently profitable, his Nvidia put options are deeply underwater as the stock trades near all-time highs. Burry remains steadfast, comparing Nvidia to Cisco during the dot-com era. He anticipates a broad repricing of the AI bubble, where overvalued beneficiaries fall and unfairly battered companies rebound.

marsbit05/10 03:06

The "Big Short" Prototype Makes a Major Bet: Shorting Nvidia, Going Long on Software Stocks 'Scared Away' by AI

marsbit05/10 03:06

Software Stocks Plunge 20%, But I'm Heavily Invested in Adobe and Salesforce

Last week, the software sector lost $1 trillion in market value, with stocks like Shopify, Atlassian, Salesforce, and Adobe plunging. The sell-off was triggered by Anthropic's release of Claude Cowork and OpenAI's similar tools, sparking fears that AI would disrupt traditional software companies. However, the author argues this reaction is irrational panic, drawing parallels to past overreactions: Google’s 40% drop after ChatGPT, Meta’s 70% decline due to TikTok, and Nvidia’s 30% fall after DeepSeek—all of which later rebounded significantly. The author believes established software firms have strong defenses: high switching costs, deep AI integration capabilities, and entrenched trust with enterprise clients. On Thursday, they bought Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Microsoft, citing low valuations and robust fundamentals. Adobe trades at half its historical P/E, with $5B in AI revenue. Salesforce’s AI products grew rapidly, and ServiceNow’s subscriptions rose 21% last quarter. Microsoft, despite its OpenAI stake, is undervalued with the lowest P/E among Magnificent Seven stocks. The author views this as a market overreaction and a buying opportunity for high-quality companies.

marsbit02/12 07:18

Software Stocks Plunge 20%, But I'm Heavily Invested in Adobe and Salesforce

marsbit02/12 07:18

How Pessimistic Is Wall Street? Goldman Sachs Directly Compares 'Software' to 'Newspapers'

Wall Street's pessimism towards the software sector has reached an extreme, with Goldman Sachs drawing a stark comparison to the newspaper industry's decline in the early 2000s and the regulatory challenges faced by tobacco in the late 1990s. The firm argues that the recent sharp sell-off in software stocks—down 29% from September 2025 highs—reflects a fundamental reassessment of the sector's long-term growth and profitability, not just short-term earnings volatility. Key catalysts include new AI developments from Anthropic and Google, which are now seen as direct threats to software firms' pricing power and business models, rather than mere productivity tools. Despite software valuations falling to multi-year lows (forward P/E of ~20x), Goldman emphasizes that the core issue is not valuation but crumbling growth assumptions. Current multiples imply mid-term revenue growth expectations have collapsed from 15-20% to just 5-10%. The report warns that, as with newspapers and tobacco, valuations alone won't form a bottom; earnings expectations must stabilize first. Investors are already shifting capital toward "real economy" sectors like industrials and energy, while reducing exposure to AI-vulnerable software. Goldman notes some defensive opportunities in vertical software and data-rich companies but stresses that the narrative has shifted from "AI as a growth catalyst" to "AI as an existential threat." The key question is no longer whether software stocks can rebound, but which companies can prove they won't become the next newspapers.

marsbit02/06 05:47

How Pessimistic Is Wall Street? Goldman Sachs Directly Compares 'Software' to 'Newspapers'