Trading Moments: Bitcoin's 200-week moving average has turned into a resistance level, can the July rise still be realized?
**Market Recap: Key Global Developments and Outlook**
Global markets are navigating shifting dynamics. Geopolitical tensions eased as the US and Iran agreed to halt further military actions, planning talks for June 30. This pushed oil prices down, with WTI crude dropping below $70. Meanwhile, gold saw a "death cross" (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day), pressured by a strong dollar and rising real yields. A methodological revision to the US PCE inflation index, set for September, is expected to artificially lower reported core inflation, drawing criticism for lack of transparency.
In US equities, major indices extended losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their longest losing streaks since last year. Hedge funds aggressively sold tech stocks, particularly in semiconductors, leading to a sharp rotation into defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities. SpaceX is set for rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, potentially triggering significant passive fund inflows, while its valuation faces scrutiny.
Bitcoin is on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022, down over 18% in June. It has failed to reclaim its 200-week moving average (now acting as resistance near $62.6k), raising the risk of a drop toward $55k. Historically, July is a strong month for BTC, with an average gain of 7.6%. Analysts suggest the current sell-off could present a buying opportunity, with a key test being whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $61k to confirm a reversal.
In Asia, South Korean stocks initially fell on semiconductor selling but recovered after the government announced a massive investment plan for chips and AI. Japanese retail sales showed strength, supporting consumer recovery. Chinese markets saw a rebalancing, with healthcare stocks surging on policy catalysts and consumption shares rebounding. Hong Kong tech stocks also rallied.
**Key upcoming events:**
* June 30: US-Iran technical talks; MiCA transition deadline in Spain; NetEase's dual-primary listing in Hong Kong.
* July 1: ECB's Sintra Forum featuring key central bankers.
* July 6-7: SpaceX's inclusion in Nasdaq 100 triggering passive fund flows.
* September 30: New US PCE methodology takes effect.
marsbit06/29 08:42
