Bitcoin trades 20% below miner costs as fear builds, but is a bullish rotation starting?
Bitcoin is trading 20-25% below the estimated average miner production cost of $89,000–$91,000, creating significant stress as many miners operate at a loss. This has led to miner liquidations and a compressed network hashrate. Market sentiment is in a "fear" zone, with the Entity-Adjusted NUPL metric declining significantly.
However, a potential bullish shift is emerging. The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has formed a golden cross, a historical indicator of early-cycle accumulation, suggesting large investors may be buying. Furthermore, stablecoin liquidity is growing, with USDC's supply increasing 9.34% monthly, indicating deployable capital is returning. OTC desk balances are also falling as institutions withdraw Bitcoin for long-term holding, easing selling pressure.
Despite these positive signs, Bitcoin remains at a fragile equilibrium near its Realized Price, and tightening macro conditions could still trigger further miner liquidations and prolong the current consolidation phase.
ambcrypto03/07 12:01