US Calls for Restrictions on Sports Prediction Markets
The National Football League (NFL) has urged the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to tighten rules for prediction markets on sports events. In a July letter, the NFL argued that current proposals fail to adequately protect the integrity of games and market participants. Key demands include banning contracts on events easily manipulated by individuals (e.g., a kicker missing a field goal), clarifying definitions to prevent gambling-like contracts, and explicitly prohibiting trading based on non-public insider information. The league also called for restricted person lists, a ban on margin trading, advertising limits, stronger user protections, and a minimum age of 21.
This push coincides with an ongoing jurisdictional dispute between the CFTC and several states. The CFTC claims exclusive federal oversight, classifying event contracts as swaps, while states argue these platforms violate local gambling laws. Recent legal actions in Michigan and Minnesota highlight the conflict, with a federal court temporarily blocking Minnesota from applying a new law to CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Meanwhile, prediction markets are experiencing significant growth. In June, driven by events like the World Cup, Kalshi's trading volume exceeded $31 billion (85% from sports contracts), while Polymarket's global platform hit a monthly record of $10.8 billion. However, platforms face legal challenges, such as lawsuits from Kentucky accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting disguised as prediction markets.
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