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Turning Point Approaching: The "Net Long vs. Net Short" Structure Presents a Historically Rare State

Kyle Soska analyzes the perpetual futures market structure using Ethena's transparency dashboard to gauge crypto market risk sentiment. Ethena's deployed capital has fallen to a multi-year low, just 71% of its 2025 minimum, indicating a sharp decline in excess long demand. Historically, directional longs significantly outnumber directional shorts, but the current market shows an almost 1:1 balance—a rare and typically unsustainable structure. This equilibrium is likely driven by increased directional shorting and hedging demand from VCs, projects, and crypto firms locking in prices or managing exposures, rather than a lack of leveraged long interest. While this balance could become the new normal, similar structures in other asset classes rarely persist long-term, suggesting a potential market turning point may be near.

Odaily星球日报03/09 09:13