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How Will the Fed's Decision Affect Bitcoin? What is the Probability of Its Rise? Answers from Two Analyst Experts!

The impact of the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Bitcoin may be more limited than in past cycles, according to analysts. While markets anticipate rates will remain unchanged, there is a 31.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike. K33 Research notes Bitcoin is trading sideways with near multi-year low volatility, while the Nasdaq shows strong upward momentum. This has caused the correlation between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy index to drop to its lowest levels in years, suggesting their price movements are diverging. Consequently, K33's Vetle Lunde states the Fed's decision may be less decisive for Bitcoin's price than historically, as low volatility and decoupling from Nasdaq trends could dampen its reaction. Similarly, analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin's recent recovery will continue post-FOMC meeting, arguing the market has already priced in excessive fear and Bitcoin's resilience supports a continued rally.

cryptonews.ruHace 2 hora(s)

How Will the Fed's Decision Affect Bitcoin? What is the Probability of Its Rise? Answers from Two Analyst Experts!

cryptonews.ruHace 2 hora(s)

Frequent Trading Halts in the Korean Stock Market: Is a Global Financial Crisis Really Coming?

**Title: Frequent Circuit Breakers in South Korean Stock Market: Is a Global Financial Crisis Imminent?** This article examines the recent spate of trading halts in South Korea's stock market as a potential early warning sign for broader global financial instability. The author argues that due to its highly open and liquid capital markets with significant foreign ownership, South Korea often acts as the world's "spare cash pool." International institutions tend to sell their highly liquid Korean holdings first during global liquidity crunches to raise capital for domestic needs, irrespective of Korea's own economic fundamentals. Historically, Korean market stress preceded major crises like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the 2000 Dot-com crash, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 pandemic crash. The current trigger involves a semiconductor bubble and high domestic leverage, but the core issue is global capital withdrawal signaling tightening liquidity. Whether this evolves into a full-blown crisis hinges on the US Federal Reserve. If the Fed can and will intervene with supportive policies (like rate cuts), a crisis might be averted as in 2020. If not, contagion could spread. For individual investors, the key takeaway is not predicting the crisis but preparing for volatility. Recommendations include: avoiding high leverage, maintaining a significant cash reserve (e.g., 40%) for buying opportunities during market declines, and holding core long-term positions (e.g., 60% in indices like S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100). The author advocates for consistent investment through strategies like dollar-cost averaging, emphasizing that staying invested over decades has historically yielded positive returns despite high valuations or periodic crashes. The conclusion is to stay in the market, manage risk, and have dry powder ready instead of attempting to time the market perfectly.

marsbitHace 5 hora(s)

Frequent Trading Halts in the Korean Stock Market: Is a Global Financial Crisis Really Coming?

marsbitHace 5 hora(s)

Celsius-linked Bitcoin miner Ionic Digital gains 26% in Nasdaq debut

Ionic Digital, a Bitcoin miner and AI infrastructure company linked to the bankrupt crypto lender Celsius, saw its shares surge approximately 26% in its Nasdaq direct listing debut on Tuesday. The stock opened at $50 and closed at $62.90, giving the company an initial market capitalization of around $2.8 billion. Formed in 2024 to acquire Celsius Mining's assets, Ionic has since expanded into AI and high-performance computing. Renaissance Capital noted its $2.4 billion implied value at the reference price made it the largest U.S. direct listing since 2021. The stock later retreated 6.5% to $58.80 in after-hours trading.

cointelegraphHace 12 hora(s)

Celsius-linked Bitcoin miner Ionic Digital gains 26% in Nasdaq debut

cointelegraphHace 12 hora(s)

Raoul Pal: Bitcoin's 87% Correlation with Global Liquidity Outweighs Financial Results and News

Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, asserts that Bitcoin and major indices like the Nasdaq trade primarily based on global liquidity conditions, not fundamentals like earnings or news. He claims an 87% correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity, with Nasdaq showing a 97% correlation. Global liquidity is measured by central bank balance sheets, the M2 money supply, and bank lending growth. Analysts at crypto market maker Keyrock developed a model supporting Pal's correlation claim, noting an eight-month lag between Treasury bill issuance and Bitcoin's price response. Pal's theory, which he detailed earlier this year, posits that central banks are forced to inject liquidity in a recurring cycle to manage global debt refinancing every four years. This forms the basis for his $450,000 Bitcoin price target, contingent on continued liquidity expansion. The high correlation suggests Bitcoin and tech stocks are trading as similar liquidity indicators rather than distinct asset classes. This view challenges narratives centered on Bitcoin's own supply dynamics, halving cycles, or adoption news. Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy has expressed a similar sentiment, downplaying the halving cycle's dominance in favor of capital flows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign reserves. It's noted that Pal's post does not include the original datasets or methodology. Furthermore, the correlation's strength has fluctuated in 2026, and Keyrock's model indicates an eight-month lag, meaning current correlations reflect past, not real-time, liquidity conditions. The future path of central bank balance sheet expansion remains a key test for Pal's thesis.

cryptonews.ruAyer 15:05

Raoul Pal: Bitcoin's 87% Correlation with Global Liquidity Outweighs Financial Results and News

cryptonews.ruAyer 15:05

Senior Trader's Confession: How to Trade Market's False Expectations?

Veteran trader's case study: trading the market's "wrong expectations". This trade centered on a textbook "expectation error" after a weak CPI report. While the market initially priced in broad monetary easing (sending Nasdaq to 30,060), the crucial 30-year real yield hit a 20-year high. This signaled a fractured transmission mechanism: short-term rates eased, but long-term funding costs (vital for tech valuations) refused to fall. The trader executed five short positions on the Nasdaq (NQ) as it fell from 30,060 to 28,768. The core methodology: don't just trade the data, but analyze the market's implied causal chain and identify where it breaks. In this case, the chain was: Weak CPI → Policy Easing → Lower Long-Term Funding Costs → NQ Valuation Expansion. The break occurred between policy easing and long-term rates. The "veto variable" – long-term real yields – refused to confirm the bullish narrative. Trades were structured around "fast variables" (price) temporarily repairing while "slow variables" (funding conditions) remained broken. The article outlines a repeatable framework: 1) Map the market's implied causal chain. 2) Identify the veto variable. 3) Observe if it rejects the narrative. 4) Enter when price still follows the old script. 5) Choose the cleanest asset expression (e.g., short NQ, not broad S&P). 6) Define both invalidation and fulfillment exit conditions. The key insight: Alpha often comes not from an information edge, but from a "reaction function edge" – recognizing when the market is applying an outdated causal logic to new data. The critical question: What causal chain is the market's first reaction relying on, and is that chain still valid today?

marsbit07/20 05:13

Senior Trader's Confession: How to Trade Market's False Expectations?

marsbit07/20 05:13

Share Price of the 'First Blockchain Stock' Plummets 96%, Is Canaan Technology Facing Delisting?

Canaan Inc., once hailed as the "world's first blockchain stock," is facing delisting from Nasdaq. The company received a 180-day extension until January 11, 2027, to regain compliance after its stock price remained below $1 for 30 consecutive days. Currently trading around $0.29, its market cap has plummeted over 90% from its peak. This crisis stems from severe financial struggles. Q1 2026 results showed a 24.3% year-over-year revenue decline to $62.7 million and a net loss of $88.7 million, which included a $25 million non-cash inventory write-down for mining rigs. The company's cash reserves have also shrunk significantly. While it holds a substantial Bitcoin reserve (1,915 BTC valued at ~$120 million), its core business is under pressure. Canaan's attempt to diversify into AI chips failed, leading to a costly shutdown of that division in 2025. Returning focus to Bitcoin mining hardware, it faces intense competition and a cyclical industry downturn. The "post-halving" era and a capital shift from crypto mining to AI infrastructure have crippled demand for its primary products. As a potential lifeline, the company is pivoting towards becoming a "computing infrastructure service provider," expanding its self-mining operations and exploring energy integration projects like waste heat utilization. It has also secured strategic investments. However, these moves have yet to restore market confidence. Canaan's story reflects the broader crypto mining winter, where the market now prioritizes profitability over narrative, forcing the company into a fight for survival ahead of the next compliance deadline.

marsbit07/16 05:41

Share Price of the 'First Blockchain Stock' Plummets 96%, Is Canaan Technology Facing Delisting?

marsbit07/16 05:41

Chip Stocks Lead Gains, Driving Nasdaq Rebound; Dow Hits 53,000 for First Time; Oil and Gold Under Pressure; Bitcoin Surges Following Trump's Statement

On Monday, U.S. stocks rallied with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading gains, breaking a recent losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 53,000 mark for the first time. The rebound was fueled by positive news from AI infrastructure leaders: Nvidia confirmed its server roadmap remains unchanged, and Broadcom announced an extended chip partnership with Apple until 2031. However, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson warned that the semiconductor sector's trajectory resembles that of silver before a sharp correction, hinting at potential bubble risks. In commodities, oil prices remained under pressure. WTI crude traded flat around $68-$69, while Brent fell to its lowest since late February at $71.75. This weakness followed Saudi Arabia's significant price cut for August cargoes—its largest in at least 26 years—raising concerns about oversupply as OPEC+ agreed to boost production targets starting in August. Gold edged down 0.4% to $4,162 per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and hawkish-leaning signals from Federal Reserve officials. Bitcoin reversed early losses to surge about 1.4% to $63,571 after former President Donald Trump publicly declared himself a "big believer in cryptocurrency." This statement countered selling pressure from a major firm's $216 million Bitcoin divestment. In bond markets, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly to 4.47%. The dollar index was largely flat, while USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 162.03, nearing a 40-year high and testing Japan's intervention resolve. European equities dipped slightly, with the STOXX 600 closing down 0.35%, retreating from record highs hit after the strong U.S. jobs data.

华尔街日报07/13 22:03

Chip Stocks Lead Gains, Driving Nasdaq Rebound; Dow Hits 53,000 for First Time; Oil and Gold Under Pressure; Bitcoin Surges Following Trump's Statement

华尔街日报07/13 22:03

8,000 BTC Fails to Support Stock Price; Can a Reverse Stock Split Save American Bitcoin?

American Bitcoin, a company closely linked to Eric Trump, faces a paradox: despite significantly increasing its Bitcoin holdings to 8,000 BTC, its stock price continues to decline. The company recently executed a 1-for-15 reverse stock split, effective July 2, aimed at raising its per-share price to meet Nasdaq listing requirements. While this action does not change the company's overall valuation, it carries risks, including potential negative market perception and reduced liquidity. The company's strategy involves using its profitable mining operations, with a cost below market price, to accumulate Bitcoin, unlike competitors who primarily issue new shares to fund purchases. However, its Q1 2026 financials revealed a net loss and significant digital asset impairment losses, highlighting that mere Bitcoin accumulation does not guarantee stock performance. The core challenge is whether the stock offers value beyond direct Bitcoin ownership. Bullish arguments focus on the growing BTC reserves and the sustainable mining model. Bearish concerns center on weak liquidity, the threat of future share dilution from potential fundraising, and the market's reluctance to award a premium simply for holding Bitcoin. The reverse split, necessary to maintain its listing, underscores underlying business weakness. The company's future hinges on stabilizing its stock liquidity, transparently managing its BTC treasury, and proving its model can grow reserves without excessively diluting shareholders. Its performance serves as a critical test for the publicly traded Bitcoin treasury sector.

marsbit07/13 10:10

8,000 BTC Fails to Support Stock Price; Can a Reverse Stock Split Save American Bitcoin?

marsbit07/13 10:10

8000 BTC Hard to Sustain Stock Price, Can Reverse Stock Split Save American Bitcoin?

American Bitcoin Corp., a company tied to Eric Trump, faces a paradox: its Bitcoin holdings have grown to 8,000 BTC, yet its stock price remains under severe pressure. To maintain its Nasdaq listing, the company executed a 1-for-15 reverse stock split, which raises the per-share price but does not change overall market valuation. The company's strategy combines mining operations—producing BTC at a reported cost of $36,200—with treasury accumulation. While this allows for below-market asset acquisition, fundamental challenges persist. Q1 2026 results showed a net loss of $81.8 million and significant digital asset impairment losses of $117.2 million, despite mining revenue. The reverse split carries risks: it may not attract new investors, could be viewed negatively by the market, and might reduce liquidity. Furthermore, the company's unchanged authorized share capital leaves room for future equity issuance, creating dilution concerns for current shareholders. The core question for investors is whether owning the stock offers superior value compared to holding Bitcoin directly. The company's test will be proving its mining-based, low-cost accumulation model can sustainably grow per-share Bitcoin holdings without excessive dilution. Its performance is a case study for the crypto treasury sector, where asset growth alone may not support valuation if market confidence falters.

Foresight News07/13 08:23

8000 BTC Hard to Sustain Stock Price, Can Reverse Stock Split Save American Bitcoin?

Foresight News07/13 08:23

SK Hynix, Fleeing South Korea

SK Hynix, South Korea's leading memory chipmaker and the global leader in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) crucial for AI, recently listed on the Nasdaq in a record $26.5 billion IPO for a foreign firm. Despite posting a remarkable 77% net profit margin last quarter and generating roughly $30 billion in cash, the company sought a U.S. listing not for urgent funding but primarily for valuation reassessment. In South Korea, it traded at a significant "Korea Discount," with a price-to-earnings ratio around 8x, far below the 23x+ of its U.S. rival Micron. The move aims to attract deeper-pocketed, long-term global institutional investors, granting Hynix access to cheaper capital crucial for the escalating R&D and fab costs of next-gen AI chips like HBM4, which require advanced foundry partnerships. This strategic migration underscores how in the AI era, capital market positioning and valuation efficiency have become as critical as technological prowess, forcing top-tier global assets toward the world's most liquid funding pools.

marsbit07/11 04:05

SK Hynix, Fleeing South Korea

marsbit07/11 04:05

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