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The First Prediction Market Stock Has Emerged!

"Prediction Market Unicorn Emerges!" While the World Cup drives record trading volumes in prediction markets, the industry leader Kalshi faces a new threat from a former key ally. In March 2025, Kalshi partnered with online broker Robinhood to offer prediction market services, allowing users to bet on events. This deal was mutually beneficial: Kalshi gained access to Robinhood's massive retail user base, with an estimated 25-35% of its volume coming through this channel, while Robinhood earned significant fees, reporting a 320% year-over-year increase in "other transaction revenue" to $147 million in Q1 2026, largely fueled by prediction markets. However, Robinhood's ambitions have grown. Recognizing that its user base and distribution power are the scarcest resources, it initiated a plan to bring operations in-house. In late 2025, Robinhood partnered with Susquehanna to acquire CFTC-regulated exchange MIAXdx, renaming it Rothera Exchange. By June 2026, Robinhood launched its own prediction market product on Rothera, strategically using the World Cup as a launchpad. Initial data shows Rothera processing tens of millions of contracts within days, directly siphoning volume away from Kalshi. This shift marks a pivotal moment: control is moving from the market infrastructure provider (Kalshi) to the entity controlling user distribution (Robinhood). The story illustrates a recurring internet era dynamic: "He who controls distribution controls everything." As more platforms with large user bases recognize the value of prediction markets, the industry's future competition may center less on which platform has the best market technology and more on which one owns the user gateway.

marsbitHace 2 días 09:28

The First Prediction Market Stock Has Emerged!

marsbitHace 2 días 09:28

If the AI Bubble Is Already Bursting, Who Will Truly Remain?

**Summary: If the AI Bubble is Bursting, What Will Remain?** The debate around an AI bubble is intensifying, with figures like Ray Dalio warning of high valuations while Jensen Huang sees immense opportunity. This echoes the dot-com bubble, which saw massive wealth destruction but ultimately left behind critical infrastructure like undersea cables and broadband, enabling future giants like Amazon and Netflix. Similarly, today's AI boom involves trillions invested in data centers, power, cooling, and GPUs, while application-layer revenue remains comparatively modest. This investment-disparity signals a bubble. However, the core technological progress is real and accelerating. AI inference costs have plummeted by over 99.7% since 2023, making intelligence increasingly cheap and accessible. This cost collapse is unlocking vast new demand. Instead of reducing spending, enterprises are tripling their AI cloud expenditure. Cheap "tokens" enable AI to move beyond simple chatbots into complex workflows—automating code writing, legal document review, financial analysis, and scientific research. This follows "Jevons's paradox": improved efficiency leads to greater total consumption. The market is now undergoing a necessary purification, weeding out "API-wrapper" startups with no real moat. The deeper evolution involves a shift from capital expenditure (CapEx) on infrastructure to operational expenditure (OpEx) on value-creation in applications. While hardware vendors currently profit most, long-term value will migrate to AI-native firms solving vertical industry problems. Ultimately, a market correction will cleanse speculative excess but will not reverse the AI+ trend. The massive physical and algorithmic infrastructure being built will endure, becoming a cheap, utility-like foundation. Just as the internet became indispensable to all industries post-2000, AI is poised to empower and redefine every sector, moving society irreversibly toward an intelligence-augmented era. The bubble may burst, but the underlying productive momentum is solid.

链捕手Hace 2 días 04:35

If the AI Bubble Is Already Bursting, Who Will Truly Remain?

链捕手Hace 2 días 04:35

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