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Prediction Markets Advise Holding Positions, While Citadel Securities Forecasts Fed Rate Hike Amid Trump Pressure on Central Bank

The U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on July 28-29 is the main focus, with markets largely expecting interest rates to hold steady at 3.50-3.75%. CME's FedWatch tool gives a 66.3% probability for no change, while prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket show ~73% odds for unchanged rates. However, Citadel Securities' head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, predicts a surprise 25-basis-point hike to reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility under Chair Warsch. This meeting occurs amid political pressure, as former President Trump again called for rate cuts. Persistent inflation, driven partly by energy costs, and Middle East-related oil price volatility add uncertainty. The outcome is significant for Bitcoin and risk assets, which typically see larger moves when the Fed acts against consensus expectations. An unexpected hike could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto prices, while a hold would shift market focus to the September meeting.

cryptonews.ruHace 5 hora(s)

Prediction Markets Advise Holding Positions, While Citadel Securities Forecasts Fed Rate Hike Amid Trump Pressure on Central Bank

cryptonews.ruHace 5 hora(s)

Prediction Market Traders Increase Odds of Fed Rate Hike

Prediction market traders have raised the odds of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its July meeting. On Polymarket, the probability of rates remaining unchanged dropped to 73.8%, while chances for a 25 basis point increase rose to 26.4%, with total trading volume reaching $109 million. Kalshi showed a similar split: 72.9% for no change and 27.6% for a hike, with $46.2 million in volume. The Fed's FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, with the current target rate at 3.5–3.75%. While a majority still expects no change, about a third of market participants anticipate an increase to 3.75-4%. This shift in expectations is attributed not only to persistent inflation but also to rising oil prices and tensions in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel last week before retreating. However, June's Consumer Price Index data, showing a monthly decline of 0.4% and a yearly inflation slowdown to 3.5%, provides an argument for the Fed to pause. Analysts note that the Fed's upcoming decision is being viewed as less predictable than usual.

cryptonews.ruHace 9 hora(s)

Prediction Market Traders Increase Odds of Fed Rate Hike

cryptonews.ruHace 9 hora(s)

Expert Opinions Divided Over Upcoming Fed Rate Decision

The upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026, is expected to keep rates unchanged or raise them by 0.25%, with no chance of a cut, according to CME data. Experts are divided on the outcome. Some, like Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, advocate for a hike now due to AI-driven demand, rising oil prices from renewed US-Iran conflict, and ongoing trade tariffs. They argue Chair Kevin Warsh is boxed in by his past statements. Others, including James Knightley of ING and a Reuters poll majority, expect a hold, citing weaker-than-expected June inflation and a cooling labor market, but anticipate tightening later in the year. Both scenarios are seen as potentially negative for risk assets like Bitcoin.

cryptonews.ruAyer 16:26

Expert Opinions Divided Over Upcoming Fed Rate Decision

cryptonews.ruAyer 16:26

The Return of the Greenspan 'Conundrum'? Could Walsh Push Long-Term Rates Down by Raising Rates?

A resurgence of the "Greenspan Conundrum" is being discussed as a potential policy option for new Fed Chair Wash. Market logic suggests that by raising short-term interest rates, Wash could strengthen the Fed's anti-inflation credibility, thereby compressing the inflation premium embedded in long-term yields and ultimately lowering borrowing costs like mortgage rates—a key goal of the Trump administration. This theory is bolstered by historical precedent. In the mid-2000s, as then-Chair Alan Greenspan raised the federal funds rate, long-term bond yields and 30-year mortgage rates fell—a phenomenon later termed the "Greenspan Conundrum." Analysts note this reflects forward-looking market pricing, where credible rate hikes can lower inflation expectations and long-term rates. Since taking office in May, Wash has consistently signaled a hawkish stance. Following his recent Senate testimony where he emphasized his independence, the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply, mirroring the conundrum dynamic. Historical analysis shows new Fed chairs often begin with hawkish moves to establish credibility. While an immediate rate hike this week is not the base case, several FOMC members have hinted at the potential need for further tightening. Even without an immediate move, the prevailing market view is that Wash is systematically building his inflation-fighting credibility, which in itself may be the most powerful precondition for pushing long-term rates lower.

marsbitAyer 16:21

The Return of the Greenspan 'Conundrum'? Could Walsh Push Long-Term Rates Down by Raising Rates?

marsbitAyer 16:21

$2.5 Billion Bitcoin Bet Aims for $70,000 with Only 6 Days Left

Traders have long blamed the "options wall" for suppressing Bitcoin's price throughout July, but with two major weekly expirations now passed and BTC remaining stagnant around $64,000, that narrative has weakened. The core issue appears to be simply thin spot market demand. While a massive ~$2.5 billion bullish options bet targeting prices of $70,000-$72,000 expires on July 31st, market-implied odds of Bitcoin reaching even $70,000 by then are low (~14.5%). Recent data shows subdued leverage, mixed ETF flows, and forced long liquidations, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction. The upcoming expiry coincides with a narrow window for US crypto legislation and follows a key Fed meeting, adding uncertainty. With the weekly "max pain" expirations failing to move price, Bitcoin's range seems determined by the absence of significant spot buyers or sellers.

marsbitAyer 11:30

$2.5 Billion Bitcoin Bet Aims for $70,000 with Only 6 Days Left

marsbitAyer 11:30

Cardano Price Forecast: Can ADA Surpass $0.20 as Ark Invest and Hoskinson Debate Its Relevance?

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.1659 on July 27, compressed at the apex of a triangle pattern. This coincides with Ark Invest's Director of Research questioning the industry's continued focus on Cardano as newsworthy, prompting a rebuttal from founder Charles Hoskinson who called the criticism institutional bias. Technically, ADA is caught between a descending trendline from May's peak and an ascending line from June's low of ~$0.1386, with the 20-day EMA at $0.1669 adding resistance. Key support is the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $0.1618, with resistance at the 50-day EMA ($0.1750) and the 0.382 Fib level ($0.1762). Derivatives data shows extremely low options volume at $6.59K, similar to previous low-volatility compression phases before directional moves. Open interest and 24-hour volume have dropped significantly, and long/short positioning is nearly balanced, indicating trader caution ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Price Forecast: * **Bullish Case:** An upward triangle breakout above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs could target the 0.382 Fib ($0.1762) and 0.618 Fib ($0.1995) levels, potentially fueled by a risk-on FOMC outcome and renewed attention from the Hoskinson-Ark debate. * **Bearish Case:** A breakdown below the 0.236 Fib support at $0.1618 could see ADA decline toward the June low of $0.1386, driven by the negative narrative from Ark and risk aversion from FOMC uncertainty.

cryptonews.ruAyer 11:23

Cardano Price Forecast: Can ADA Surpass $0.20 as Ark Invest and Hoskinson Debate Its Relevance?

cryptonews.ruAyer 11:23

Bitcoin: What ‘a cooler than expected CPI print’ means for BTC’s $70K retest

Bitcoin's rally on July 14th followed a cooler-than-expected CPI report, which sharply reduced market expectations for a Fed rate hike and improved risk sentiment. Analysts suggest this macro shift, combined with rising long positions and positive ETF inflows, could support a break above $66,000 and a retest of the $70,000-$75,000 range by month-end. On-chain fundamentals strengthen the outlook, with growth in wallets holding 1+ BTC and significant WBTC exchange outflows indicating accumulation. The alignment of improving macro conditions, technicals, and fundamentals underpins a bullish quarter-end target of $100,000.

ambcrypto07/15 15:04

Bitcoin: What ‘a cooler than expected CPI print’ means for BTC’s $70K retest

ambcrypto07/15 15:04

Walsh Is Quietly Reshaping the Federal Reserve Through Five Working Groups

In an effort to subtly reshape the Federal Reserve, Chair Kevin Wash has established five "Chair's Advancement of Monetary Policy" working groups. These groups, led entirely by 15 external experts and supported by Fed staff, cover the entire monetary policy "operating system": data inputs, productivity/employment/inflation models, balance sheet tools, and external communications. The initiative centralizes agenda-setting, knowledge production, data access, and public narrative control under the Chair's office, while formal decision-making power remains with the FOMC and Board. Analysts note this mirrors tactics like China's use of central working groups—bypassing bureaucratic inertia, creating parallel reporting channels, and enabling rapid "top-level design" to reset policy agendas. This suggests Wash may hold off on major policy moves until the groups conclude their studies. Key future questions are whether these groups become permanent and if their conclusions effectively become pre-determined policy for the FOMC to ratify.

marsbit07/10 10:23

Walsh Is Quietly Reshaping the Federal Reserve Through Five Working Groups

marsbit07/10 10:23

Unexpected Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data Pushes BTC to Rebound 11%, FOMC Minutes to Test the Narrative of This Rally

Bitcoin has rebounded 11% from its 21-month low, but the sustainability of this rally hinges entirely on the Federal Reserve's release of the June FOMC meeting minutes. The bounce was triggered by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, which showed only 57,000 jobs added in June—about half of economists' forecasts. This data prompted traders to scale back bets on further Fed rate hikes, fueling a rally in Bitcoin alongside gold and stocks. The upcoming minutes are critical. They will reveal whether Fed officials, in their mid-June meeting, were already expressing concerns about a weakening labor market, tight credit conditions, or the risks of overtightening—factors that would support the market's recent dovish shift. Conversely, if the discussion focused on persistent inflation and the conditions for more rate hikes, the rally's foundational narrative would crumble. Market indicators show the rebound's fragility. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant single-day inflow, it followed a prolonged period of outflows. On-chain data indicates a substantial increase in Bitcoin being moved to exchanges, creating potential sell pressure. Options market positioning suggests key price levels around $60,000 and $62,000 that could either stabilize or accelerate price movement. In essence, Bitcoin's 11% gain is built on speculation about the Fed's private deliberations three weeks ago. The FOMC minutes will replace that speculation with concrete details, and the discrepancy between market expectations and the actual record will determine whether Bitcoin holds above $64,000 or falls back toward $58,000.

marsbit07/08 04:52

Unexpected Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data Pushes BTC to Rebound 11%, FOMC Minutes to Test the Narrative of This Rally

marsbit07/08 04:52

Here’s why Strategy’s $216M Bitcoin sale may not be bearish after all

Strategy's recent disclosure of a $216M Bitcoin sale, part of a larger $1.25B plan, did not trigger the severe market downturn some analysts feared. Instead, Bitcoin's price remained stable above $63K. Grayscale Research suggests this move could actually support BTC price stability by restoring confidence in Strategy's financial structure and helping the asset find a more durable bottom. This contrasts with the sharp drop seen in early June after a much smaller BTC sale. The firm's preferred stock (STRC) also rebounded following the announcement. While critics like Peter Schiff point to potential losses, the muted market reaction has led some analysts to view the resilience as a potential sign of a market bottom.

ambcrypto07/08 03:03

Here’s why Strategy’s $216M Bitcoin sale may not be bearish after all

ambcrypto07/08 03:03

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