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The 'Final Battle' of Crypto Treasuries: The Myth of Buying the Dip Is Collapsing

Amid a recent crypto market downturn, crypto treasury companies—previously major buyers that fueled market rallies—have significantly slowed or halted their purchases, despite prices reaching potential bottom. This inaction is not due to depleted funds or panic but stems from a structural paralysis in their funding mechanisms, which rely heavily on stock premiums. These companies, exemplified by industry leader Strategy, primarily fund crypto acquisitions through convertible notes and At-The-Market (ATM) equity offerings. The ATM mechanism allows issuing new shares at a premium to net asset value (NAV) to raise capital for buying more crypto. However, when their stock price falls below the NAV per share (mNAV < 1), selling shares becomes dilutive and economically unfeasible, effectively locking their "ammunition." Strategy, for instance, still has over $30 billion in ATM capacity but cannot utilize it while trading at a discount. Other crypto treasury firms face similar constraints. Many have mNAV ratios below 1, rendering their ATM plans unusable. While some, like BitMine (a major Ethereum holder), continue buying using cash reserves, overall effective purchasing power is limited. The sector is shifting focus from leveraged accumulation to earning yield through staking (e.g., Ethereum staking yields ~8%) to cover interest costs and ensure survival. This reflects a broader move away from "infinite bullet" theories dependent on perpetual premiums, underscoring that these companies amplify trends rather than counteract downturns. Market recovery is essential to restart the funding flywheel.

比推12/08 09:27