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Analysts Predict Strong Bitcoin Rally, but Profit-Taking Risk Remains

Analysts forecast significant Bitcoin price growth but caution that profit-taking risks remain. Bitcoin surged to a multi-month high of $79,491 on August 21, with the rally driven by spot demand and short covering rather than new leverage, according to Bitfinex analysts. They noted that cash-based rallies tend to be more sustainable than those fueled by borrowed funds. The initial price jump on August 19, to $69,749, was triggered by a short squeeze that liquidated approximately $1.48 billion in positions, mostly shorts. This coincided with a $297.6 million inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Further gains were supported by macroeconomic factors, including a US Treasury announcement to double its long-term bond buyback program to at least $4 billion per operation, aiming to improve liquidity conditions which historically correlate with Bitcoin's price. A key technical level is the $68,000-$69,000 zone, representing the aggregate cost basis for buyers over the past five months. Trading above this level is crucial for maintaining their profitability and reducing sell pressure. Strong continued inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, including a notable $606.29 million on August 20, are seen as vital for sustaining the rally's momentum. A return to a positive Coinbase Premium Index would confirm renewed US investor demand. However, risks persist. Analysts warn of a potential large wave of profit-taking if significant amounts of Bitcoin are moved to exchanges. Additionally, rising long-term bond yields and macroeconomic pressures, such as the US national debt surpassing $40 trillion, remain challenges that could test the rally's resilience more than any on-chain signal.

cryptonews.ruHace 10 hora(s)

Analysts Predict Strong Bitcoin Rally, but Profit-Taking Risk Remains

cryptonews.ruHace 10 hora(s)

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Reach $126,000 and Hit a New All-Time High by Year-End

Standard Chartered has revised its year-end Bitcoin price target upward, suggesting it could reach a new all-time high of $126,000. The bank's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, noted that the current rally is driven by short liquidations and a recovery in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. He stated that low open interest leaves room for new investors, reducing the risk of a sharp sell-off from an overheated market. This marks a shift from the bank's earlier, more conservative forecast. In February, Standard Chartered lowered its 2024 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000, anticipating a deep correction first. However, Bitcoin's steady climb has prompted Kendrick to consider the possibility that his initial $100,000 target may be too low. Other analysts are also signaling a potential market bottom. Swan Bitcoin's Cory Klippsten expects a bottom to form in October, while 10x Research's Markus Thielen suggests closing August above $63,000 could confirm the end of the bear market. Bitcoin recently rose above $79,000, gaining 25% in a week. The analysis cautions that macroeconomic factors remain crucial. Past rallies have been vulnerable to inflation data and Federal Reserve rate decisions, with sharp pullbacks following positive news cycles. The sustainability of any surge toward $126,000 will depend on upcoming CPI reports and monetary policy.

cryptonews.ruHace 12 hora(s)

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Reach $126,000 and Hit a New All-Time High by Year-End

cryptonews.ruHace 12 hora(s)

"Negative factors are almost gone." Bitcoin price forecasts

"Bitcoin witnessed a significant surge from $62,000 to nearly $80,000 during the week of August 17, driven by a US Treasury decision to increase bond purchases. Several major market players have issued bullish long-term forecasts, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $500,000 in the coming years. However, the short-term outlook remains mixed. Analysts note that negative factors for Bitcoin have largely diminished. American macroeconomist Lyn Alden stated speculative capital has been flushed from the market, and even small gains could attract new buyers. Standard Chartered has set a $100,000 price target by late 2026, viewing the recent breakout above $65,000 as a sign the cycle's bottom is past. VanEck's Matthew Sigel predicts $100,000 next year and a potential rise to $500,000 by 2029, noting the correction from the October 2025 peak is ending. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong sees a "very likely" scenario of Bitcoin reaching $300,000-$400,000 by 2030 due to US regulatory clarity and adoption. Despite the rally, experts caution that historical data previously suggested the cycle bottom might not occur until autumn 2026. In the near term, Alexander Peresich, CEO of Tekhnobit, commented that Bitcoin could consolidate above $80,000 if sustained demand from spot markets and ETFs continues. Otherwise, profit-taking amid low weekend liquidity could trigger a correction. He views the current momentum as a "sigh of relief rather than a signal of a long-term trend reversal," with the market remaining sensitive to inflation expectations and geopolitics. He outlined two scenarios for the weekend: an optimistic one holding above $76,000-$77,000 and targeting $80,000, and a pessimistic one involving a pullback to $72,000-$75,000. He concluded that the weekend will test whether there is solid underlying demand supporting the price movement."

cryptonews.ruAyer 18:58

"Negative factors are almost gone." Bitcoin price forecasts

cryptonews.ruAyer 18:58

Bitcoin starts a sharp rise. What's next

Bitcoin has experienced a sharp surge in recent days, nearly reaching $80,000 before trading around $77,000. Analysts attribute this rally to a fundamental shift in investor expectations regarding US dollar liquidity. A key driver was a recent US Treasury decision to significantly increase purchases of long-term bonds, which caused a sharp drop in their yields. This macroeconomic shift triggered a massive cascade of forced liquidations of leveraged short positions, fueling the price spike. The breakout followed a prolonged period of sideways movement and was further accelerated by Donald Trump's renewed positive comments on cryptocurrency after meeting with industry representatives. Looking ahead to the weekend, analysts warn the market appears locally overheated. While demand has recovered in both spot and derivatives markets, and consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue, weekend trading brings reduced liquidity as major funds are less active. This environment, combined with high funding rates and substantial unrealized profits among speculators, creates ideal conditions for potential volatility and localized price manipulations. Two primary scenarios are outlined: 1) A period of flat consolidation with attempts to test the $80,000 psychological resistance level, provided support holds above $74,000-$75,000. 2) A technical correction towards the $70,000-$71,000 zone to cool overbought indicators before a new upward move. Overall, the strong, sustained rally across global trading sessions is seen as a significant signal of a potential trend reversal, suggesting a shift to a bullish phase for at least several months. However, a slowdown or consolidation is expected over the weekend, allowing the market to establish a new base for further growth.

cryptonews.ruAyer 14:24

Bitcoin starts a sharp rise. What's next

cryptonews.ruAyer 14:24

QCP Capital Explains Bitcoin's Sharp Rise as Due to Falling U.S. Long-Term Bond Yields

QCP Capital's latest report explains Bitcoin's sharp rally from $64,000 to $79,000 in four sessions. Analysts attribute the surge to a reversal in the US long-term bond market. A sell-off pushed the yield on 30-year Treasuries near a 2007 high (~5.33%), prompting the US Treasury to announce expanded bond buybacks for liquidity support. This caused bond yields to fall, the dollar to weaken, and Bitcoin and gold to rise. QCP emphasizes this is not quantitative easing but a targeted liquidity measure. The pressure on long-term bonds is global, with yields rising in Japan and Europe. Competition for capital between sovereign debt and massive AI infrastructure financing is also cited. The initial Bitcoin breakout was driven by short covering rather than massive liquidations. However, the rally was later sustained by significant spot demand, including a $517 million net inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs—the largest since May. Options markets reacted, with Bitcoin's implied volatility rising sharply. Key upcoming events include July's US PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. For crypto, QCP notes that while bond yields partially retraced their drop, Bitcoin and gold held most of their gains, highlighting their sensitivity to long-term yield and dollar movements. The report concludes that liquidity conditions, sovereign borrowing, and debt costs are now significantly influencing multiple asset classes, including crypto.

cryptonews.ruAyer 14:23

QCP Capital Explains Bitcoin's Sharp Rise as Due to Falling U.S. Long-Term Bond Yields

cryptonews.ruAyer 14:23

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