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After TACO Ceasefire, Iran War Is Only Paused

The article analyzes the temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, suggesting it represents a pause rather than a resolution to the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump accepted a two-week truce amid political and economic pressures, temporarily calming markets and allies. However, core issues remain unresolved: Iran shows no willingness to abandon its nuclear or missile programs, nor to concede to U.S. demands for regime change. Instead, Iran has strengthened its control over the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leveraging it for long-term geopolitical gains, including imposing transit fees on oil tankers. The conflict has exposed divisions within the U.S. Republican Party, with Trump facing criticism from both hawks and moderates over his aggressive threats and strategic reversals. The ceasefire, while providing a short-term de-escalation, fails to address underlying structural tensions, leaving the situation volatile and open to further escalation.

marsbit04/12 02:38

After TACO Ceasefire, Iran War Is Only Paused

marsbit04/12 02:38

From Threat to Ceasefire: How Did the U.S. Lose Its Dominance?

From escalating threats to a sudden ceasefire, the US appears to have lost its dominant position in the confrontation with Iran. The conflict has entered a more complex phase where ceasefire and strategic maneuvering coexist. A key shift lies in the reversal of the diplomatic structure: rather than forcing Iranian concessions through military action, the US has been drawn into a negotiation framework based on Tehran’s "Ten-Point Plan." Although Washington has not formally accepted all terms, its de facto recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz marks a significant strategic retreat. This has allowed Iran to regain diplomatic and economic leverage. The outcome is counterintuitive: the conflict has not weakened Iran but instead restored its deterrence capability. Meanwhile, the failure of US military means has undermined the credibility of American threats, forcing any future negotiations to be based on genuine compromise. However, the ceasefire remains fragile, with localized clashes continuing and Israel’s actions adding further uncertainty. The situation remains on the brink of escalation, highly dependent on external variables. More profoundly, a conflict originally intended to pressure or even topple the Iranian regime may instead consolidate its internal power structure. The US has shifted from a dominant party to a negotiator, while Iran has moved from a pressured state to an active player. The confrontation has thus entered a longer-term and more complicated stage.

marsbit04/09 17:03

From Threat to Ceasefire: How Did the U.S. Lose Its Dominance?

marsbit04/09 17:03

The Oil Order is Breaking Apart: What Happens Next in the Middle East?

The article analyzes the breakdown of the longstanding implicit bargain that underpinned Middle Eastern oil and security order: the U.S. would not target Iran's regime, and Iran would not disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. This equilibrium shattered after a U.S.-Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025, which Iran viewed as crossing a red line. In response, Iran initiated a "selective blockade" of the Strait in 2026, allowing some ships (e.g., Chinese, Russian) passage while blocking others. The U.S. military buildup, including deploying a "lightning carrier" and planning a potential ground assault on Iran's oil terminals, has failed to reopen the Strait. The crisis is reshaping global alliances, as Iran uses transit permits as diplomatic leverage. Key structural shifts are underway: the Saudi activation of alternative oil pipelines, the erosion of the U.S. security guarantee, and a challenge to dollar-denominated oil trade. Two potential paths are outlined: a major ground war or a de-escalation through deterrence and backchannel talks. Regardless, the conflict is expected to be prolonged, with lasting impacts on energy routes, global inflation, and the petrodollar system.

marsbit03/26 10:48

The Oil Order is Breaking Apart: What Happens Next in the Middle East?

marsbit03/26 10:48

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