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After the UFO Files Are Made Public, Prediction Markets Only Price the Probability of Alien Existence at 20%?

The U.S. Department of Defense has launched a website declassifying UFO/UAP files, releasing an initial batch of over 160 documents. These include videos, photos, mission logs, sighting reports, and communications from agencies like NASA and the FBI, featuring unexplained incidents such as anomalous lights near Apollo missions and a "jellyfish"-shaped object over the UAE. Despite widespread public discussion, the prediction market predict.fun shows only a 20% probability that the U.S. government will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by December 31, 2026. The market's focus is not on whether aliens exist, but on whether U.S. authorities will make a definitive, binding statement before the deadline. Analysts note the file release provides transparency and fuels debate but does not constitute an official confirmation. The 20% odds reflect a time-discounted assessment, acknowledging the possibility of future evidence while doubting a conclusive governmental stance within the current year. This event highlights how prediction markets translate speculative narratives into tradable contracts based on verifiable outcomes and specific timelines.

Odaily星球日报Ayer 01:14