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US Stocks Surge 16% in Two Months: Only 4 Occurrences in History, the Most Recent Was Just Before the 1987 Crash

U.S. stocks have surged 16% over April and May, a gain seen only four times since WWII, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen. Three prior instances followed recessions, but the sole non-recession precedent was in early 1987, months before the "Black Monday" crash. The current rally is underpinned by AI enthusiasm and strong data, but its speed without an economic recovery is historically unprecedented. Meanwhile, credit spreads remain near record lows despite growing consumer strain—the U.S. savings rate hit just 2.6% in April, a level last seen before the Global Financial Crisis, and consumer sentiment is at its lowest since 1952. Market risks are concentrated. While stocks and credit markets appear immune to geopolitical tensions, sovereign bonds tell a different story. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices and recently hit multi-year highs, creating a widening divergence with equities. Surprisingly stable oil prices, despite the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have been a key pillar for risk assets. However, if the blockage persists, this support could fade, raising the risk of a stagflation shock not currently priced in.

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