Artículos Relacionados con Cost Basis

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BTC Needs to Soar 92% to Rescue Buyers from Last Year's $120k Entry; First Escape Exit at $72k

Bitcoin's price hovers around $64,000, leaving buyers who entered near the $123,000 peak in July 2025 down nearly 48%. These investors require a 92.2% rally just to break even. On-chain data from Glassnode highlights key resistance levels that will test the market's strength on any potential recovery path. The Short-Term Holder cost basis sits at approximately $72,200, while the Realized Market Mean is around $76,600. These levels represent the first major supply tests, as some holders may look to exit once losses narrow or profits are restored. BTC has traded below these benchmarks for about five months. Glassnode reports that while long-term holder capitulation is cooling and buyers absorbed the June lows, a definitive market bottom remains unconfirmed. Downside risk still exists, with the bear market lower bound near $53,000 identified as residual risk. For a sustainable recovery, stronger demand must first absorb potential selling pressure at the $72,200 and $76,600 levels. Only after reclaiming these cost bases would targets like $100,000 or the $123,000 breakeven for last year's peak buyers become relevant. The market's ability to handle supply at these initial checkpoints will be crucial for any further upward movement.

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

BTC Needs to Soar 92% to Rescue Buyers from Last Year's $120k Entry; First Escape Exit at $72k

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

Bitcoin Shifts Towards Consolidation, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Significantly Eases

Bitcoin's Bottoming Process Shows Signs of Shifting Dynamics Bitcoin's bottom formation is ongoing, but key characteristics are changing. The capitulation selling by long-term holders (LTHs), a primary source of selling pressure this cycle, has begun to cool from its recent peak. Buyers successfully absorbed the selling at the June lows, and price is now recovering to challenge overhead resistance. The market is testing higher resistance levels. Bitcoin reacted more strongly to soft inflation data than major equity indices, signaling sellers may be exhausted and buyers are waiting for a catalyst. Its correlation with stocks is weakening while its inverse relationship with the USD is deepening, suggesting liquidity dynamics are now more influential than risk sentiment. On-chain, price sits between the network's Realized Price (a historical bear market floor) and the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis near $69k, a key resistance level where recent buyers break even. LTH profit-taking has largely dried up, and losses now dominate realized on-chain volume—a typical late bear market signal. Crucially, the pace of LTH capitulation has started to decline. Derivatives markets show bearish positions are being unwound, with put/call ratios falling and crash protection costs moderating. However, this derisking hasn't been accompanied by significant spot buying, a missing link for sustained recovery. US spot ETF outflows have slowed but not reversed. In conclusion, foundational elements for a bottom are forming: LTH selling is easing, low-point selling was absorbed, and the market is responding to positive macro cues. The next critical test is whether spot-driven buying can push price through and hold above the STH cost basis near $69k. The follow-through is not yet confirmed.

marsbitHace 12 hora(s)

Bitcoin Shifts Towards Consolidation, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Significantly Eases

marsbitHace 12 hora(s)

Bitcoin Remains Below Glassnode’s $77,200 True Market Mean

Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin continues to trade below its "True Market Mean," a key on-chain model estimating the average acquisition price of economically active coins at approximately $77,200. With BTC price roughly 15% below this level, the market is characterized as being in a repair or bearish regime rather than a confirmed bullish recovery. Trading below this cost-basis metric suggests a significant portion of active supply is under pressure, which can hinder rallies as underwater investors may sell into rebounds. The report highlights ongoing stress among short-term holders, contributing to market sensitivity. While a defense of current support levels shows demand, a sustained reclaim of the $77,200 True Market Mean is viewed as a more constructive signal for a broader regime shift than a simple relief bounce. For a bullish recovery to be confirmed, the market needs sufficient demand to overcome this overhead cost pressure.

bitcoinist06/19 00:02

Bitcoin Remains Below Glassnode’s $77,200 True Market Mean

bitcoinist06/19 00:02

How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

This article analyzes the formation of Bitcoin's bear market "bottom structure" by examining the relationship between cost basis and price action, particularly the behavior of short-term holders (STH). Historically, the cost basis of coins held for 1-3 months (1-3m_RP) has acted as a key resistance level during bear market rallies. This group's supply is often less committed; many entered the market expecting quick gains but were trapped. When the price rebounds to their break-even point, they tend to sell, creating resistance. Data shows that as of mid-April, the 1-3m_RP is approximately $75,400, a level Bitcoin is currently testing for the second time this cycle. The first test in mid-January failed, leading to a pullback. The author suggests a high probability of a similar outcome this time, as historical cycles show the second test rarely results in an immediate reversal. An alternative, less likely scenario is a break above this level, only to face stronger resistance at the broader STH-RP (average cost basis for all short-term holders) near $81,000, where a much larger supply of 2.31 million BTC resides. This could lead to price consolidation around the 1-3m_RP. A definitive bottom structure is confirmed only when the 1-3m_RP trend reverses from down to up, signaling a transition from a bear to a bull market. This process takes time, requiring patience to observe whether breakouts are genuine.

marsbit04/16 05:54

How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

marsbit04/16 05:54

Analyzing how Bitcoin’s short-term holders and $64K-level can unlock market bulls

Bitcoin's price is struggling amid bearish sentiment, but key shifts among short-term holders (STHs) could signal a potential bullish turn. STHs, who purchased BTC in the last month at an average cost basis of $85,450, are currently at a 19% unrealized loss. Historically, a 25% or greater loss often marks a market bottom, suggesting Bitcoin may need to decline another 6% to around $64,000 to trigger a rebound. At this level, STH selling typically subsides, reducing supply pressure. Meanwhile, approximately 300,000 BTC (worth ~$27 billion) have recently moved from STHs to long-term holders (LTHs), who are less likely to sell during downturns, thereby supporting price stability. Additionally, exchange reserves have slightly declined from 2.46 million to 2.45 million BTC, indicating a tightening supply. A sustained reduction in reserves could further limit downside risk and lay the foundation for a potential rally.

ambcrypto04/08 06:02

Analyzing how Bitcoin’s short-term holders and $64K-level can unlock market bulls

ambcrypto04/08 06:02

Coinbase report: Crypto users want to pay taxes, but complexity remains

A Coinbase and CoinTracker report reveals that while the majority of cryptocurrency users intend to comply with tax rules, widespread confusion and complexity hinder compliance. Key findings show 74% of users know crypto is taxable and 65% have reported it previously, but only 49% correctly identify taxable events. New IRS Form 1099-DA, set for 2027, aims to standardize reporting but does not resolve the critical challenge of cost basis calculation. With users averaging 2.5 platforms and 83% using self-custody wallets, tracking original purchase prices remains difficult. Only 35% have adjusted cost basis. As a result, many users are turning to AI, with 47% open to using it for calculations and 30% for the entire tax process, though traditional methods like tax software (78%) and accountants (52%) remain dominant.

ambcrypto03/30 16:10

Coinbase report: Crypto users want to pay taxes, but complexity remains

ambcrypto03/30 16:10

Bitcoin 53% Down From Cycle Peak – Key Levels To Clear For Full Recovery

Bitcoin remains in a six-month bear market, currently trading around $66,000—down 53% from its all-time high of $126,000. Analyst Burak Kesmeci notes that while this correction falls within the expected 40%-70% range, downside risk persists based on historical drawdowns. Key resistance levels include new whales' cost basis at $82,800 and the short-term holder realized price at $86,900, creating significant overhead selling pressure. Support lies near $58,900 for Binance users and $55,900 for miner whales, with the macro floor at $54,300. A sustained break above $86,900 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

bitcoinist03/28 13:10

Bitcoin 53% Down From Cycle Peak – Key Levels To Clear For Full Recovery

bitcoinist03/28 13:10

Bitcoin ETFs stabilize as BTC consolidates, but investors remain underwater

Bitcoin ETFs are showing signs of stabilization after a period of significant outflows, with cumulative flows recovering by nearly $3 billion since late February. However, net flows remain down by over $6 billion from their October 2025 peak, indicating that selling pressure has eased but not fully reversed. The average cost basis for ETF holders is approximately $82,000, while Bitcoin is trading around $65,900, leaving many investors underwater with estimated aggregate losses exceeding $14 billion. Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a $65,000–$72,000 range, with weak momentum and an RSI near 40, reflecting a lack of strong directional movement and a cautious market sentiment.

ambcrypto03/27 18:02

Bitcoin ETFs stabilize as BTC consolidates, but investors remain underwater

ambcrypto03/27 18:02

Bitcoin Price Bottom Could Be Around $40,000, On-Chain Data Shows

Based on on-chain data analysis by Ali Martinez, the Bitcoin price bottom in the current bear market could be around $40,000. This projection hinges on the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH), investors who have held their coins for over 155 days. Historically, this level acts as a strong support during downturns, as these investors are less likely to sell and often increase their buying when the price approaches their average acquisition cost, which is currently approximately $40,363. If selling pressure does not overwhelm this renewed buying activity, this cost basis could mark the market bottom. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $68,330, down over 45% from its all-time high.

bitcoinist02/22 17:02

Bitcoin Price Bottom Could Be Around $40,000, On-Chain Data Shows

bitcoinist02/22 17:02

Ethereum Price Slips Below Whale Cost Basis — More Pain For Bulls?

Ethereum's price experienced a significant downturn in early February, falling over 30% and briefly dropping below $1,850. A critical development occurred as the price slipped below the realized price (average on-chain acquisition cost) of all investor cohorts, including large holders (whales) with over 100k ETH, whose cost basis is approximately $2,074. Historically, this whale cost level has acted as strong resistance in downtrends and reliable support in uptrends. A break below it suggests two potential outcomes: a sharp rebound if reclaimed as support (as seen in 2020 and 2022), or further capitulation toward multi-year lows (as in 2018-2019). Key resistance for any recovery is seen between $2,534–$2,675 (the realized price of smaller holders). If the $2,074 level is not reclaimed within 30-45 days, ETH could decline further to $1,800 or even $1,300–$1,600. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $2,030, up over 7% in 24 hours.

bitcoinist02/08 11:34

Ethereum Price Slips Below Whale Cost Basis — More Pain For Bulls?

bitcoinist02/08 11:34

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