Author: Liam "Akiba" Wright, CryptoSlate
Compiled by: TechFlow
TechFlow Insight: With BTC's current price around $64,000, buyers who entered last July at $120,000 are facing a loss of nearly 48%, requiring a 92.2% rally to break even. Glassnode on-chain data reveals the Short-Term Holder cost basis sits at approximately $72,200, and the Realized Market Mean is around $76,600 – these levels will be the first pressure tests on the rebound path, as some holders might choose to sell when losses narrow.
Buyers from Last Year's $120k Peak Remain Deep Underwater
With BTC currently priced around $64,000, a $1,000 investment made last July when BTC first breached $120,000 is now worth only about $520 – a loss of 47.98%, necessitating a 92.2% rally to recover the initial capital (excluding fees).
In July 2025, BTC first surpassed $120,000, setting a new all-time high of $123,165; on October 6 of the same year, it climbed further to a higher record of $126,198. Currently, however, the price remains far below either of these milestones.
The First Pressure Test on the Road to Break-Even
According to Glassnode's Week 27 research report, the Short-Term Holder cost basis (the aggregate break-even point for recent buyers) is around $72,200; the Realized Market Mean (a broader cost baseline for active investors) is approximately $76,600. BTC has been trading below these two metrics for about 5 months.
As the price approaches these two cost bases, losses for high-entry buyers will shrink, while other holders will gain earlier exit opportunities. Some may continue holding upon returning to profit, while others might reduce their positions after prolonged losses – the strength of demand at these levels will determine whether the potential supply can be absorbed.
Key Level Overview:
- $72,200 (Requires a 12.7% increase): Short-Term Holder cost basis – a test of demand as recent buyers return to break-even.
- $76,600 (Requires a 19.6% increase): Realized Market Mean – a test of demand as the broader active market returns to break-even.
- $100,000 (Requires a 56.1% increase): A psychological threshold, testing whether recovery extends well beyond the first cost basis checkpoints.
- $123,000 (Requires a 92.2% increase): The July 2025 entry price – whether last year's peak buyers can break even.
Bottom Still Not Confirmed
In a July 13th update, Glassnode noted that BTC's movement towards $64,000 lacked broad consensus, with weak spot market participation and on-chain activity. On July 15th, Glassnode stated that the Long-Term Holder capitulation was cooling, with buyers absorbing the June lows, but the bottom remains "a work in progress."
These two updates point towards gradual improvement – but stronger demand is still required to break through the aforementioned cost bases. At the two key levels of $72,200 and $76,600, the core question is: how much potential selling pressure emerges, and can buyers absorb it.
Glassnode also maintains exposure to downside risks – a July 8th report noted that the bear market lower bound, the Realized Price around $53,000, could still be tested. Glassnode views $53,000 as a residual risk and continues to characterize the bottom as unconfirmed.
BTC must first recapture the two cost bases at $72,200 and $76,600 before $100,000 and $123,000 become meaningful. A stronger recovery first depends on whether demand can absorb potential risk release around $72,200, followed by $76,600. Until these checkpoints are reclaimed and confirmed by broader participation, last year's peak buyers face the presence of holders who can exit much earlier.
