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Bitcoin: Why analysts warn BTC could drop to $38K in current cycle

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a recent brief positive shift in the Coinbase Premium, indicating a potential return of U.S. investor demand for the first time since December. However, analysts caution this may be a fakeout and that the premium must remain positive for several days to confirm a true recovery. Market volatility is elevated, with realized volatility reaching its highest level since 2022, signaling significant price swings. Options data from Glassnode shows high implied volatility, indicating the market is anticipating a potential 14% price move in the next month. The put skew in options further suggests traders are hedging against a possible downturn. Analyst projections, based on historical cycle drawdowns, warn that Bitcoin could drop to $38k in the current cycle, representing a 70%–75% decline from its all-time high. Current evidence suggests the market bottom has likely not yet been reached.

ambcrypto02/28 21:01