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The Eve of the Storm: Powell Holds Rates, Trump Announces New Fed Chair?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its first policy decision of 2026, with markets pricing in a near-100% probability of no change. While this outcome is largely anticipated, the focus has shifted to future policy direction and the potential announcement of a new Fed Chair by former President Trump. Key uncertainties remain regarding the pace of potential rate cuts in 2026. Although the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in late 2025 due to a softening labor market, persistent inflation at 2.8%—above the 2% target—has led to a more cautious stance. The composition of the voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has also shifted, with two new "hawkish" regional bank presidents joining, which may influence future decisions. Chair Powell’s post-meeting remarks will be closely watched for signals on the duration of the pause and the likelihood of further easing. Simultaneously, Trump has indicated he may soon nominate a new Fed Chair, with candidates narrowed down to four individuals. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income and a proponent of lower rates, is currently the betting favorite. Trump may choose to announce his nominee around the time of the FOMC meeting to shift market attention away from any potentially hawkish signals from Powell and instead emphasize a more dovish long-term outlook. The timing and choice of nominee could significantly influence market sentiment and expectations for monetary policy.

Odaily星球日报01/28 11:33

The Eve of the Storm: Powell Holds Rates, Trump Announces New Fed Chair?

Odaily星球日报01/28 11:33

Bitcoin's 'Strict Headmaster' Arrives? If He Takes the Helm at the Fed, the Crypto Party Could End Abruptly

The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and Wall Street insider, becoming the next Fed Chair. Unlike other candidates like Kevin Hassett, who is seen as favoring lower interest rates and easier monetary policy, Warsh represents a more disciplined approach. Having worked at Morgan Stanley and experienced the 2008 financial crisis firsthand, Warsh is highly sensitive to systemic risks and liquidity issues. Warsh’s policy stance combines aggressive quantitative tightening (QT) with moderate interest rate cuts. He aims to control inflation by reducing the money supply and restoring the dollar’s credibility, while also easing corporate financing costs. This approach could challenge risk assets like cryptocurrencies, which have thrived in an era of abundant liquidity. If appointed, Warsh could bring stricter regulation to crypto, particularly stablecoins, potentially requiring full cash or short-term debt reserves. He opposes a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) on privacy grounds but supports a wholesale CBDC for interbank settlements. While his policies may pressure crypto in the short term, they could also foster more institutional adoption and real-world asset (RWA) integration in the long run. However, the article notes that political pressures—especially from a Trump administration seeking lower rates and economic growth—could ultimately influence Warsh’s decisions, regardless of his personal beliefs.

Odaily星球日报12/22 09:27

Bitcoin's 'Strict Headmaster' Arrives? If He Takes the Helm at the Fed, the Crypto Party Could End Abruptly

Odaily星球日报12/22 09:27

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