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Software Stocks Plunge 20%, But I'm Heavily Invested in Adobe and Salesforce

Last week, the software sector lost $1 trillion in market value, with stocks like Shopify, Atlassian, Salesforce, and Adobe plunging. The sell-off was triggered by Anthropic's release of Claude Cowork and OpenAI's similar tools, sparking fears that AI would disrupt traditional software companies. However, the author argues this reaction is irrational panic, drawing parallels to past overreactions: Google’s 40% drop after ChatGPT, Meta’s 70% decline due to TikTok, and Nvidia’s 30% fall after DeepSeek—all of which later rebounded significantly. The author believes established software firms have strong defenses: high switching costs, deep AI integration capabilities, and entrenched trust with enterprise clients. On Thursday, they bought Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Microsoft, citing low valuations and robust fundamentals. Adobe trades at half its historical P/E, with $5B in AI revenue. Salesforce’s AI products grew rapidly, and ServiceNow’s subscriptions rose 21% last quarter. Microsoft, despite its OpenAI stake, is undervalued with the lowest P/E among Magnificent Seven stocks. The author views this as a market overreaction and a buying opportunity for high-quality companies.

marsbit02/12 07:18