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Mechanism Capital Founder: Excessive Worry About Bubbles Is Foolish

Mechanism Capital founder Andrew Kang argues that excessive worry about market bubbles is misguided in the current technological landscape. He emphasizes that we are at a uniquely asymmetric moment in history, driven by exponential advancements in AI, robotics, energy, and other innovative fields. Short-term volatility and corrections are noise compared to the long-term transformative potential of these technologies. Kang predicts a near-future "singularity" with billions of AI agents, humanoid robots, space data centers, multi-planetary colonization, and revolutionary medical therapies. He states that the technological progress and economic growth compressed into the next 20 years will surpass the entirety of human history. Companies leveraging AI are already seeing order-of-magnitude improvements in productivity. Traditional valuation models are inadequate for pricing this unprecedented growth, which could reach "20-sigma" levels in historical statistical terms. The wealth creation will be extreme, and those without exposure will find it difficult to enter the market later. Kang advises adopting a long-term, exponential mindset and avoiding short-term trading, as the potential upside represents the largest asymmetric opportunity in history.

marsbit02/11 08:10

Mechanism Capital Founder: Excessive Worry About Bubbles Is Foolish

marsbit02/11 08:10

Wall Street Plunged into 'AI Phobia': An Indiscriminate Sell-off Is Spreading

Wall Street is experiencing a widespread "AI panic," triggering indiscriminate sell-offs across sectors perceived as vulnerable to AI disruption. The fear intensified recently when a tax-strategy tool from startup Altruist Corp. caused sharp declines in shares of major wealth managers like Charles Schwab, Raymond James, and LPL Financial. This reflects a broader market shift from focusing on AI winners to hastily dumping stocks of companies—from small software firms to large financial services—deemed at risk of being replaced by AI-driven products. Similar sell-offs occurred earlier in software, insurance, and asset management after AI companies like Anthropic and Insurify launched new tools. While some investors see this as an overreaction, citing the slow pace of technological adoption historically, others warn that AI’s rapid advancement is fueling legitimate anxiety. High market valuations have made stocks particularly sensitive to any negative signals, amplifying the volatility. The key uncertainty remains how quickly and deeply AI will reshape industries, leaving the market in a state of cautious speculation.

marsbit02/11 03:47

Wall Street Plunged into 'AI Phobia': An Indiscriminate Sell-off Is Spreading

marsbit02/11 03:47

FT Column: Bitcoin's 'La Haine' Moment - The Fall Doesn't Matter, the Landing Does

Bitcoin is experiencing its worst crash since 2022, plummeting toward $60,000 and erasing all gains made since Donald Trump’s re-election. The crypto community, known for its resilience and “cope” mentality, remains outwardly confident despite massive liquidations—over $1.25 billion in a single 24-hour period. Influential figures like Balaji Srinivasan and Michael Saylor continue to evangelize, citing political support and long-term optimism. However, the author argues that such faith is misplaced. Even with a pro-Bitcoin U.S. president and favorable policies, the sell-off persists, revealing the fragility of a market built purely on speculation and the “greater fool” theory. The piece draws a parallel to the film *La Haine*, using the metaphor of a falling man repeating “so far, so good” to illustrate the denial preceding an inevitable crash. The core question remains: when the faith vanishes and the fools run out, how will Bitcoin land?

marsbit02/09 06:40

FT Column: Bitcoin's 'La Haine' Moment - The Fall Doesn't Matter, the Landing Does

marsbit02/09 06:40

Forbes Editorial: The Most Accurate Short Signal in the Crypto World?

Forbes magazine covers have become an infamous bearish signal in the crypto world, often marking the peak of market cycles just before major crashes. The article highlights three key examples: 1. **CZ (2018)**: Featured on the cover during Bitcoin's downturn from its late-2017 high. Bitcoin fell 58% after the issue. 2. **SBF (2021)**: Called "crypto's most powerful man" before FTX collapsed 13 months later, wiping out billions. 3. **Michael Saylor (2025)**: Dubbed "The Bitcoin Alchemist" near Bitcoin's $104K peak. A year later, Bitcoin dropped 40%, and his company faced $6.5B in unrealized losses. The "magazine cover indicator" suggests mainstream media attention often coincides with market euphoria and impending reversals. While Sun Yuchen’s March 2025 cover briefly defied the trend (as Bitcoin continued rising), multiple crypto covers in quick succession were themselves a signal of overheated sentiment. The conclusion: bull markets don’t end in panic—they end on magazine covers. When a trend becomes too popular and even non-traders are talking about it, it may be time to reconsider positions.

marsbit02/06 09:45

Forbes Editorial: The Most Accurate Short Signal in the Crypto World?

marsbit02/06 09:45

Bitcoin Treasuries An ‘Explosion Waiting To Happen,’ Capriole Founder Warns

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warns that the rapid growth of Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies—now numbering 200—is a "leverage explosion waiting to happen." Comparing DATs to the 1920s investment trust bubble, Edwards notes these firms, which hold 12% of all Bitcoin, face unsustainable model for yield on a fixed-supply asset. With many having bought at bull market prices, recent downturns have pressured their holdings. Edwards cautions that an unwind could dwarf the collapses of Luna and FTX. Bitcoin is trading around $74,500, down 16% over the past week.

bitcoinist02/05 14:41

Bitcoin Treasuries An ‘Explosion Waiting To Happen,’ Capriole Founder Warns

bitcoinist02/05 14:41

February 5 Market Summary: AMD Plunge Triggers Chip Stock Crash, Bitcoin Falls Below $73,000

Market Summary, February 5: A disappointing earnings report from AMD triggered a sharp sell-off in chip stocks, while Bitcoin fell below $73,000. AMD’s Q4 revenue and EPS beat expectations, but its Q1 guidance only slightly exceeded forecasts, disappointing investors who expected stronger AI-driven growth. Higher operating expenses also raised profitability concerns. AMD plunged 17%, dragging down the broader semiconductor sector. Broadcom, Micron, Lam Research, and Applied Materials all fell sharply. The iShares tech-software ETF dropped 4%, extending its weekly loss to 17%, as AI automation tools sparked fears about the future of SaaS business models. Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, closely tracking the sell-off in tech stocks. Crypto mining stocks tied to AI infrastructure, like Cipher Mining and IREN, also fell over 10%. In contrast, gold continued its rebound, rising over 2% to break $5,000/oz after Monday’s 6% surge – its biggest gain since 2008. Silver jumped 7% above $85. The rally was supported by bargain-hunting, central bank demand, and a weaker dollar. Key takeaways: Markets are growing concerned about AI’s profitability and soaring capital costs. Upcoming earnings from Google and Amazon, along with US-Iran talks, could dictate near-term direction.

marsbit02/05 02:37

February 5 Market Summary: AMD Plunge Triggers Chip Stock Crash, Bitcoin Falls Below $73,000

marsbit02/05 02:37

Five Years Later, Vitalik Overturns the Future He Set for Ethereum

Five years after championing Layer 2 (L2) scaling as Ethereum's future, Vitalik Buterin has dramatically reversed his position, declaring that L2s have largely failed to fulfill their original vision of "branded sharding." In a pivotal post, he argued that most L2 solutions remain highly centralized, reliant on multi-signature bridges and sequencers, and thus are not truly extending Ethereum's security or decentralization. The initial push for L2s was a survival response to Ethereum's cripplingly high fees and congestion during the 2021 DeFi and NFT boom, when competitors like Solana gained traction. However, despite massive venture funding—with projects like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Starknet raising billions—progress toward full decentralization (Stage 2) has been slow. Many operate more like centralized databases, prioritizing control and regulatory compliance over Ethereum's core values. Meanwhile, Ethereum itself has scaled significantly. Through upgrades like EIP-4844 and increased gas limits, L1 transaction fees have plummeted by over 99%, often costing just cents. This reduces L2's cost advantage and exposes their drawbacks: bridge vulnerabilities, fragmented liquidity, and complex user experiences. Vitalik now urges L2s to pivot from mere scaling to providing unique functional value—like privacy, ultra-fast finality, or application-specific optimizations—that L1 cannot easily offer. He reframes L2s as a spectrum of specialized "plugins" rather than essential scaling layers. This shift signals a market consolidation where only L2s with genuine utility and decentralization will survive, ending an era of inflated valuations and "ghost chain" projects. Ethereum is reclaiming its sovereignty by becoming scalable on its own terms.

marsbit02/04 05:52

Five Years Later, Vitalik Overturns the Future He Set for Ethereum

marsbit02/04 05:52

Left Hand to Right Hand? Unveiling the Financial Leverage Loop Behind the AI Boom and Wall Street's Ultimate Gamble

The AI boom is largely fueled by circular financial deals where capital flows between a handful of unprofitable tech giants, creating a high-risk interdependence that some fear could lead to a system-wide collapse if demand falters. For instance, Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which is also a major buyer of Nvidia chips, while OpenAI relies on Oracle’s cloud services—which itself uses Nvidia hardware. This closed-loop funding cycle supports massive infrastructure expansion, with an estimated $3 trillion expected to be spent on AI data centers. However, key players like OpenAI and Anthropic are still losing money with each ChatGPT query, and profitability is not anticipated until 2029–2030. Drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble—which wiped out $5 trillion in value—analysts warn that an AI downturn could have even broader economic repercussions, given its role in GDP growth and widespread exposure through retirement funds. Despite these risks, optimists compare current data center overbuilds to the unused fiber optics of the 1990s, which later became critical infrastructure. The AI investment surge is described as Wall Street’s "ultimate bet": a high-stakes gamble on transformative technology that already has real-world applications but remains financially precarious.

marsbit01/30 09:28

Left Hand to Right Hand? Unveiling the Financial Leverage Loop Behind the AI Boom and Wall Street's Ultimate Gamble

marsbit01/30 09:28

$357 Billion Evaporated! Microsoft Plummets: Is the Death Knell for the AI Bubble Officially Sounding?

Microsoft's stock plummeted 7% in a single day, erasing $357 billion in market value, despite reporting strong quarterly results with a 23% profit increase and record revenue of $81.3 billion. The decline was driven by concerns over slowing Azure growth (38% vs. previous 39%) and rising capital expenditures. High hardware prices, especially for HBM memory, squeezed cloud margins, dropping profitability to around 67%. Heavy reliance on OpenAI—45% of future cloud contracts—and competition from low-cost open-source AI alternatives added to investor anxiety. While Microsoft benefits from paper gains on its OpenAI stake, markets are questioning the sustainability of its capital-intensive AI model and its ability to monetize next-gen services like Copilot effectively.

比推01/30 00:23

$357 Billion Evaporated! Microsoft Plummets: Is the Death Knell for the AI Bubble Officially Sounding?

比推01/30 00:23

When the 'Bitcoin Bible' Prophecy Meets Soaring Silver: Is the Old Theory Still Valid?

A book published in 2018, "The Bitcoin Standard," argued that Bitcoin is a harder form of money than gold and that silver cannot serve as a reliable store of value due to its high supply elasticity—meaning production can quickly ramp up when prices rise, causing bubbles to burst, as seen in the Hunt brothers' case in the 1980s. However, eight years later, silver has surged to a record $117 per ounce, driven by structural shifts. Unlike past speculative bubbles, today’s rally is fueled by industrial demand: over 60% of silver use now comes from sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI hardware. Supply has not kept pace; mining output has declined since 2016, and inventories are shrinking. New factors, such as China’s export restrictions on refined silver, have further tightened markets. Bitcoin maximalists cite the book to defend their stance, arguing silver’s rise is temporary and that Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it superior long-term. But current silver dynamics challenge earlier assumptions, highlighting a clash between old theories and new realities. As silver continues its rally, Bitcoin proponents await a narrative reversal.

比推01/28 14:14

When the 'Bitcoin Bible' Prophecy Meets Soaring Silver: Is the Old Theory Still Valid?

比推01/28 14:14

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