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Bitcoin Acts as a Geopolitical 'Barometer', Will Risk Appetite Return as Markets Open on Monday?

Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal following escalating Middle East tensions is being interpreted by some analysts as a positive signal for global risk assets at Monday's market open. As the only tradeable risk asset over weekends, Bitcoin acts as a real-time sentiment barometer, and its rebound suggests recovering risk appetite. Despite an initial sharp drop after Israel's airstrike on Iran, Bitcoin quickly recovered and surged past pre-conflict levels following reports of Ayatollah Khamenei's death. Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir remains optimistic about a "risk-on" market opening, noting that oil prices have already partially priced in geopolitical risks, rising from $60 to $72 per barrel. Additionally, key oil transport channels remain unobstructed, and ample crude inventories provide a buffer against supply disruptions. This marks the third time Bitcoin has served as a weekend sentiment indicator during major Middle East conflicts, but this rebound was notably stronger, indicating a shift in market perception.

华尔街日报03/01 09:10