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Red Flags in US Stock Options Data: Last Time This Signal Appeared Was Before the 2022 Bear Market

A key gauge of U.S. stock market sentiment, the Cboe equity put-to-call ratio's five-day moving average, has fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, preceding the last bear market. This indicates investors are buying more than twice as many bullish call options as bearish puts, a historically extreme reading that signals potentially excessive optimism, particularly among retail traders fueled by the AI frenzy. Market analysts warn this mirrors conditions seen before the market peaks in late 2021 and early 2022, which were followed by sustained declines. Meanwhile, a record divergence has emerged between low overall market volatility (VIX) and high single-stock implied volatility, highlighting intense internal market divergence driven by AI-related stocks. Despite these cautionary signals, major indexes including the S&P 500 continued to hit record highs, with the tech sector leading gains.

marsbitAyer 09:37