Is Bitcoin Price Witnessing A Relief Rally? What On-Chain Data Says

bitcoinistPublicado a 2026-01-10Actualizado a 2026-01-10

Resumen

Bitcoin's price has shown a strong start to 2026, mostly staying above the key $90,000 level, sparking debate on whether this is a true bullish resurgence or a bear market relief rally. Analyst Maartunn points to on-chain data, noting that the bounce was supported by the ETF Realized Price at $85,000, where buyers defended their positions. The Coinbase Premium Gap also rose, indicating increased buying from U.S. investors, followed by strong ETF inflows—suggesting strategic rebalancing rather than emotional FOMO. However, BTC was rejected at the $94,000 resistance and remains below critical on-chain levels like the Short-Term Holder and Whale Realized Prices. Despite a 10% rise, the analyst concludes this is likely a relief rally within a bear trend. A sustained break above $94,000 is needed to confirm a bullish restart. Currently, BTC is trading around $90,360, down 1% in 24 hours.

The Bitcoin price looks to be off to a great start, having spent most of the new year above the psychological $90,000 mark. While the premier cryptocurrency has slowed down in recent days, there has been a display of significant bullish intent in the market so far in 2026.

Now, this latest show of optimism somewhat contradicts recent predictions that the Bitcoin price might be at the start of a bear market. This begs the question — could the bull run be nearing a restart, or is the price of BTC only witnessing a relief rally?

BTC’s Recent Bounce A Mere Bear Market Relief Rally — Analyst

In a January 9 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn shared interesting data points to answer the question of whether Bitcoin’s latest price bounce is meaningful or just a relief rally. The market pundit anchored their answer on both on-chain and technical price data.

Firstly, Maartunn acknowledged that the recent jump was only bound to happen, as the Bitcoin price found support around the ETF Realized Price at $85,000. This price level represents the average cost basis of BTC ETF investors, and as expected, the buyers defended their positions — leading to the price bounce.

This phenomenon is spotlighted by another on-chain metric, the Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and global exchanges. According to Maartunn, the metric started to rise right after New Year’s Eve, signaling renewed buying activity from US-based investors.

Furthermore, the spot exchange-traded funds started seeing strong capital inflows days after this uptick in the Coinbase Premium Gap. “This looks more like strategic buying/portfolio rebalancing (new quarter, new year) than emotional FOMO,” Maartunn added.

Source: @JA_Maartun on X

However, the crypto analyst noted that the rally only saw the Bitcoin Price climb to the range high at $94,000 before getting rejected. In essence, this suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency does not possess the bullish strength to breach that resistance.

Additionally, Maartunn mentioned that Bitcoin is still trading beneath crucial on-chain levels like the Short-Term Holder Realized Price and Whale Realized Price, both of which are acting as significant overhead resistance.

The on-chain analyst noted that the on-chain observations suggest that this recent bounce is merely a bear market relief rally, not a trend continuation — even though the price is up by about 10%. Only a clean break and sustained close above the $94,000 would indicate the Bitcoin price’s strong intent to rebuild a bullish structure, Martunn concluded.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at $90,360, reflecting an almost 1% decline in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat on-chain metric signaled renewed buying activity from US-based investors after New Year's Eve?

AThe Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and global exchanges.

QAccording to analyst Maartunn, what price level acted as a key support for Bitcoin, leading to the recent bounce?

AThe ETF Realized Price at $85,000, which represents the average cost basis of BTC ETF investors.

QWhat does the analyst conclude the recent Bitcoin price bounce represents, based on the on-chain data?

AHe concludes it is merely a bear market relief rally, not a trend continuation or the restart of a bull run.

QWhat critical resistance level did the Bitcoin price get rejected at during this rally?

AThe range high at $94,000.

QWhat two specific on-chain price levels is Bitcoin still trading beneath, which are acting as significant overhead resistance?

AThe Short-Term Holder Realized Price and the Whale Realized Price.

Lecturas Relacionadas

$10 Billion, Qualcomm to Acquire Chip Legend Jim Keller's Company

Global mobile chip giant Qualcomm is in advanced talks to acquire AI chip startup Tenstorrent in a deal valued between $8-10 billion, according to media reports. This potential acquisition would be one of the largest in the AI chip sector in recent years. Tenstorrent, led by legendary chip architect Jim Keller, has gained prominence for its RISC-V architecture and AI accelerator designs. The move highlights Qualcomm's strategic push to diversify beyond its core smartphone chip business. As the smartphone market matures, Qualcomm is aggressively targeting growth in automotive, data center, and cloud AI. Acquiring Tenstorrent would allow Qualcomm to rapidly enter the high-end AI computing market, bypassing lengthy in-house development cycles. Tenstorrent's cost-effective system architecture, which avoids expensive HBM memory and relies on standard Ethernet for clustering, offers a potential alternative to Nvidia's costly solutions. Furthermore, Tenstorrent's high-performance RISC-V CPU technology and its focus on the automotive and edge computing segments align with Qualcomm's strategic goals, including its "Snapdragon Digital Chassis" platform. Despite the strategic rationale, the high valuation has sparked some investor caution. The successful integration of Tenstorrent's open-source culture and independent team into Qualcomm's organization, along with the commercialization of its technology, remains a key challenge.

marsbitHace 34 min(s)

$10 Billion, Qualcomm to Acquire Chip Legend Jim Keller's Company

marsbitHace 34 min(s)

CARDS' Brutal Truth of $535M FDV: Only $43M Net Revenue, Profit Margin Halved

The article deconstructs Collector Crypt (CC), a blockchain-based platform for trading tokenized collectible cards, revealing a significant disparity between its high volume and actual business fundamentals. Key findings include: * CC's cumulative revenue of $635M is misleading; 90.6% is instantly returned to users via card buybacks, leaving only $43M in net revenue (6.7% retention). * Trading activity is minimal, with real secondary market trading below $5M. eBay sales as a percentage of volume have declined for six consecutive quarters. * The platform's user base is highly concentrated, with a few dozen high-frequency wallets driving most of the volume, resembling a "casino" with ~420 daily active players. * As volume shifts to higher-priced card packs, the net profit margin has halved from 11.2% to 5.8%. * Token value capture (via burns and buybacks) totals only $1.4M, just 3.4% of net revenue. Meanwhile, operational wallets have off-ramped $45.7M in USDC. * With a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of ~$535M, the token trades at 7.3x net revenue. The float is only 20.5%, with 72% of the supply allocated to insiders and locked until November 2027. The analysis concludes that while CC has found product-market fit as a high-speed gacha machine, it shows little evidence of evolving into a sustainable collector's marketplace, with minimal value accruing to its CARDS token.

marsbitHace 39 min(s)

CARDS' Brutal Truth of $535M FDV: Only $43M Net Revenue, Profit Margin Halved

marsbitHace 39 min(s)

Arthur Hayes-Linked Wallet And Whales Accumulate Tens Of Millions In ETH

On-chain tracker Lookonchain reports significant Ethereum accumulation by a wallet linked to Arthur Hayes, purchasing 1,400 ETH (worth ~$2.51 million). This follows a prior transaction of 3,000 ETH to a possibly Hayes-linked wallet. The activity highlights renewed whale interest as ETH faces market-wide pressure. While such large-scale buying can support market sentiment by suggesting stronger hands see value, analysts caution that wallet attribution is not a direct personal confirmation. The key for traders is whether this accumulation is part of a broader pattern that can help ETH defend key support levels. The signal is considered one input among many; price confirmation and broadening spot demand beyond isolated whale wallets are still needed for a convincing recovery setup. Observers are watching for sustained exchange withdrawals to gauge longer-term positioning.

bitcoinistHace 1 hora(s)

Arthur Hayes-Linked Wallet And Whales Accumulate Tens Of Millions In ETH

bitcoinistHace 1 hora(s)

With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Listing in Succession, Can the Market Really Absorb Them?

The article analyzes the market's capacity to absorb the concurrent mega-IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, which could collectively seek over $200 billion from public markets—more than four times the total U.S. IPO volume in 2025. SpaceX, already public at a $2.1 trillion valuation, demonstrated strong demand with significant oversubscription. Anthropic, targeting a Q4 2026 listing, presents a compelling financial story with rapid revenue growth and a projected first quarterly operating profit. OpenAI, however, faces the greatest scrutiny due to its high cash burn and lack of profitability, with its eventual financial disclosures posing a key risk to its ~$1 trillion target valuation. Wall Street sentiment is divided: bulls point to ample liquidity in money markets and pent-up demand for pure-play AI stocks, while bears warn of a liquidity drain and risk transfer from private to public investors. A "capitulation long" mindset—participating despite bubble concerns—is also noted. The author concludes the market has the appetite for individual offerings, as shown by SpaceX. The real test will be whether OpenAI and Anthropic's financial fundamentals can support their valuations upon public scrutiny. The ultimate question for AI valuations remains whether enterprise adoption translates to tangible cost savings or revenue generation.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Listing in Succession, Can the Market Really Absorb Them?

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

SK Hynix Stock Price Hits New High: Delivers HBM4E Samples, Reinforcing Its Leading Position in AI Memory

SK Hynix Delivers HBM4E Samples, Shares Hit Record High on Strong AI Memory Outlook SK Hynix has delivered samples of its next-generation AI memory chip, HBM4E, to major customers, sending its stock price soaring 7.3% to a historic high. The new 12-layer stacked flagship product offers a data processing speed of 16Gbps per pin, a more than 20% improvement in power efficiency, and a 17% reduction in thermal resistance compared to the previous generation. It also achieves a single-chip capacity of 48GB, enabled by Advanced MR-MUF packaging technology. This sample delivery accelerates SK Hynix's technological iteration in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) field, solidifying its core position in the AI infrastructure supply chain. The market response reflects strong confidence in the company's ability to maintain leadership in the AI memory race, building on its established track record of mass production and supply for HBM3, HBM3E, and HBM4. The performance and efficiency gains of HBM4E are expected to enhance data processing capabilities in AI training and inference scenarios, addressing performance bottlenecks in next-generation AI systems.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

SK Hynix Stock Price Hits New High: Delivers HBM4E Samples, Reinforcing Its Leading Position in AI Memory

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Trading

Spot

Futuros