Author: But Bin
On June 29th, But Bin, Chairman of Oriental Harbor, delivered a keynote speech titled "Do Not Miss Out on a Great Era" at Gelonghui's "2026—All in Silicon-Based New Epoch" Mid-Year Strategy Summit.
Addressing market concerns about an AI bubble, But Bin pointed out from an industry cycle perspective:"The risk of missing out on an entire era may be greater than the risk of worrying about short-term bubbles."
In his view, humanity stands at the dawn of the artificial intelligence era—an era that may be more disruptive than the electronic, internet, and mobile internet eras.
He assesses that the AI wave is unlikely to conclude in just three or four years. At the industry level, it could follow the decadal rhythm of the internet era. Taking the release of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 as the starting point, a reference point for significant risk might be around 2033.
He noted that the "primary driver" of long-term growth in capital markets is technological progress; trade wars, interest rate hikes, and wars are only secondary factors. He also discussed the long-term logic of silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life from the perspective of human civilization, emphasizing the importance of focusing on primary drivers, respecting corporate innovation, and market common sense in investment.
Finally, he emphasized that we must not let this great era down.
"The tide never turns back; the wheel of the era rolls forward silently. To be born in this time is already immense fortune. Do not let hesitation shackle your steps, nor let short-sightedness betray the years—never miss out on this magnificent, great era that belongs to us."
Below are the highlights of But Bin's speech compiled by Gelonghui, shared with everyone.
01 From an industry cycle perspective, the risk of missing the AI era is greater than the risk of worrying about short-term bubbles
Recently, people often ask: Is there an AI bubble? What's the short-term outlook?
But Bin's answer is: From the perspective of long-term industry development, for market participants, the risk of missing an era may be greater than the risk you worry about regarding short-term bubbles. Of course, in the face of short-term fluctuations and uncertainties, investors also need to make independent judgments based on their own investment horizons and risk tolerance.
Looking back at the 55-year history of the NASDAQ since its establishment in 1971, the core driver behind the long-term growth of capital markets has been technological progress, not short-term factors like interest rates or macro policies.
Some worry that a high-interest-rate environment will lead to a market crash.
Let's look at history: In the 1970s, the US benchmark interest rate reached as high as 22%, yet the electronic hardware era saw a 6.5-fold increase over 16 years; the internet era experienced a complete interest rate cut-hike cycle and rose strongly for a full 10 years; the same was true for the mobile internet era. Interest rates have never been the primary cause; technological progress is the main driver.
02 The AI era is more disruptive than the previous three eras; at the industry level, it might follow the ten-year rhythm of the internet era
He further pointed out that at last year's annual meeting, he predicted that 2026 might resemble 1994—a doji star followed by a significant rally. After three years of strong gains in '23, '24, and '25, this year still shows strong industry momentum.
"Why? Because the AI era is more disruptive than the previous three eras—the electronic era, the internet era, and the mobile internet era."
But Bin's basic judgment is: The AI era will likely have a long industry cycle, similar to the internet era.—ChatGPT was released at the end of 2022. If we follow the historical "ten-year" rhythm of the internet, that point (around 2033) is likely to be a reference window where risk needs to be examined. Before then, the AI industry's evolution is unlikely to conclude in just three or four years. However, short-term market volatility and local bubbles objectively exist; investors must still rationally assess based on their own circumstances.
03 The Long-Term Vision of Silicon-Based Life: A Thought Experiment from a Civilizational Perspective
But Bin showed two videos, elevating the perspective from capital markets to the dimension of human civilization.
His viewpoint is highly imaginative: Silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life is an extremely probable direction. If Earth's civilization is to persist, silicon-based life will likely replace carbon-based life or become the dominant productive force.
He provided a set of vastly different time coordinates:
In 4.1 billion years, the sun may expand into a red giant, swallowing Earth, or it may collapse into a white dwarf.
Voyager has been flying for 77 years and is still about 70,000 light-years away from exiting the solar system.
In 10 billion years, the Andromeda Galaxy might collide with the Milky Way—by then, humanity must fly out of the Milky Way.
"Carbon-based life cannot fly out of the Milky Way. But silicon-based life—it is a million times smarter than us, thinking and working non-stop 24/7. The revolutionary changes it brings may propel civilization far beyond our comprehension."
But Bin stated this is not a short-term investment judgment but rather provides a thinking framework: The economic growth paradigm brought by silicon-based intelligence may have limitless possibilities and longer industrial chains. Understanding this helps to transcend immediate distractions and examine long-term trends.
04 Technology Rewrites the Rules of War; Neither the US nor China Can Afford to Lose the AI Race
But Bin showed a recent case from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield: a Russian soldier was captured by Ukrainian drones and robots.
"The weaponization of AI is an exponential change; this is an inevitable process."
He believes that neither the United States nor China can afford to lose this AI race. The US has a first-mover advantage in foundational technology and top talent, while China has formed differentiated competitiveness in application scenarios, data scale, and industrial chain completeness. Both sides continue to reinforce their long-term AI layouts.
05 Buffett's "Regret" and Oriental Harbor's Cognitive Evolution
But Bin compared the portfolio changes of the "elders" in China and the US.
Buffett bought Google in Q3 last year and continued adding this year; Google has now entered Berkshire Hathaway's top five holdings.
"Before Charlie Munger passed, he said in an interview that his generation should have made 100 billion or even 1 trillion. He was so close to Bill Gates yet only symbolically bought 100 shares of Microsoft. Microsoft has risen 7,000-fold."
"If he had taken 100 million from Coca-Cola to buy Microsoft, that would be 700 billion, more than all the money he ever made."
But Bin admitted that these historical fragments cannot predict the future but remind us that investment requires continuously breaking cognitive boundaries. Oriental Harbor is also iterating and evolving: our company's research team continues to conduct in-depth tracking on foundational AI computing power, storage, and other segments.
06 Calmly Maintain Perspective, Rationally Hold the Chips Bestowed by the Era
But Bin concluded with a poem he wrote:
"The tide never turns back; the wheel of the era rolls forward silently.
Some are trapped in the immediate clamor of details, while others stand above the cycles, gazing at the starry river.
Do not dwell on momentary rises and falls, nor blindly follow fleeting trends of cold and heat.
Mountains and rivers are reborn amidst upheaval; opportunities bloom through persistent, lengthy endurance.
To be born in this time is already immense fortune. Do not let hesitation shackle your steps, nor let short-sightedness betray the years.
Live well, forge ahead earnestly, and never miss out on this magnificent, great era that belongs to us."
