(51/52) Weekly Market Watch | 5th Week of December | The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

marsbitPublicado a 2025-12-29Actualizado a 2025-12-29

Resumen

**Weekly Market Watch: 5th Week of December - The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting** **Market Overview & Key News:** The final week of December saw increased market volatility due to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts, though a clear directional trend was absent. Bitcoin closed the week nearly flat, with a marginal gain of 0.55%, while trading volume hit its lowest weekly level since July. Normal trading activity and liquidity are expected to resume after the New Year. **Macro Outlook: Strategic Commodity Clash** A significant development was China's announcement that, starting January 1, 2026, it will require special permits for white silver exports. This move is anticipated to have a major impact on global metal supply chains. In the US, October durable goods orders fell 2.2%, worse than the expected -1.5%. However, Q3 GDP growth was revised up to a strong 4.3%, significantly higher than the forecasted 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure. **Key Upcoming Economic Event:** * December 31st, 3:00 AM EST: Release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. **Weekly Crypto Roundup:** * **Institutional Moves:** Morgan Stanley is reportedly exploring offering crypto trading services (including spot and derivatives) to its institutional clientele. A major Russian bank executed the country's first crypto-backed loan, providing funds to a Bitcoin miner. * **Exchange Developments:** Coinbase announced the acqui...

Hot News: The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

Affected by the holiday period and the expiration of major options last Friday, market volatility intensified, but there is a lack of clear directional conviction. Bitcoin closed basically flat this week, with a slight increase of 0.55%, setting the lowest weekly trading volume since July. The market expects trading activity and liquidity to return to normal after the New Year.

Macro Outlook: Strategic Conflict in Commodities

Starting from January 1, 2026, the Chinese government will require special permits for silver exports. This move is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.
U.S. durable goods orders in October fell by 2.2%, lower than the market expectation of -1.5%. However, U.S. third-quarter GDP grew by 4.3%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Includes:

Wednesday, December 31, 3:00 AM: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Weekly Cryptocurrency Overview: Aave DAO vs. Aave Labs

According to reports, Morgan Stanley is exploring the provision of cryptocurrency trading services for its institutional client base, including spot and derivative markets.
Russian banking giant Sberbank executed the country's first cryptocurrency-collateralized loan, providing funding to Bitcoin miner Intelion Data.
Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its predictive market products. The transaction is expected to be completed in January 2026.
Kraken announced plans to enter the predictive market space, aiming to launch the service in 2026.
Travel giant Ctrip has integrated stablecoin payments, allowing global users to book travel services using digital assets.
Strategy increased its reserves by $748 million, bringing its total cash holdings to $2.19 billion, in addition to holding 671,268 BTC.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Networks

The Solana Foundation launched Kora, an audited fee intermediary and signature node designed to enable gas-free transactions and secure remote signing.
Polygon announced that major payment processor Shift4 has launched stablecoin settlement on its network, providing 24/7 payment services to tens of thousands of merchants.
Spire Labs deployed the first Base-based application chain on Celo, utilizing Self Protocol's privacy-preserving "human proof" to resist Sybil attacks.
Flow Network suffered an attack due to a layer vulnerability, resulting in a loss of $3.9 million.

Dapps

Hyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits and added a BLP yield feature on its Earn page.
The Polymarket team has indicated that developing and launching its dedicated layer 2 network is now the platform's primary task.
Kamino Finance launched PRIME, a new yield primitive on Solana offering an 8% low-correlation APY, backed by real-world HELOC credit provided by Figure.
GMX is now live on the Ethereum mainnet, allowing users to trade over 100 perpetual contract markets, trade on 23 spot markets, and provide liquidity through GM or GLV.
Maple Finance facilitated its largest single loan of 500 million USDC.
Resolv announced the expansion of its arbitrage market assets to HYPE on Hyperliquid and SOL on Binance Exchange, with an initial allocation of 10%.
Hinkal Protocol partnered with Resolv Labs to provide private trading for USR and RLP.
Mellow Protocol will integrate Fluid and Resolv on Plasma into its stRATEGY vault, allowing for modular institutional vault access without the need for custom engineering.
F(x) Protocol launched FX100 Perp, a new decentralized perpetual contract trading platform featuring non-liquidatable positions (positions will be rebalanced to reduce leverage) and leverage of up to 100x.
The ZK processor protocol Brevis released the tokenomics of its BREV token, which will serve as the payment, collateral, and governance token for the ProverNet market.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

The governance proposal for Aave DAO to take control of the Aave brand assets has been rejected.
The Uniswap community passed the Unification proposal and burned 1 billion UNI, and will activate the fee switch and implement other protocol changes after the timelock.
LayerZero's third fee switch public vote failed to reach quorum, meaning the protocol fees will remain closed for at least another six months.
The Bitcoin community is engaged in intense debate over the potential threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin network. Among them, BIP-360 was introduced into the discussion to implement an anti-quantum signature solution.

Token Unlocks

IO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.09% of the supply.
KMNO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.92% of the supply.
EIGEN tokens will unlock on January 1, accounting for 7.52% of the supply.
LA tokens will unlock on January 5, accounting for 5.94% of the supply.
MOVE tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 5.78% of the supply.
LINEA tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6% of the supply.
HOME tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 4.16% of the supply.
RAIN tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 11% of the supply.
US tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6.32% of the supply.
BB tokens will unlock on January 13, accounting for 10.9% of the supply.
ZKC tokens will unlock on January 15, accounting for 6.71% of the supply.

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Criptos en tendencia

CitreaCTR

wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Velodrome FinanceVELODROME

BrevisBREV

ZRX（0X）ZRX

PancakeSwapCAKE

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main reason for the increased market volatility mentioned in the article?

AThe increased volatility is attributed to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts from the previous week, though there is a lack of clear directional conviction.

QWhat significant policy change by the Chinese government is expected to impact the global metal supply chain starting January 1, 2026?

AThe Chinese government will require special permits for white silver exports, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.

QWhich company announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to enhance its prediction market products?

ACoinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its prediction market products, with the transaction expected to be completed by January 2026.

QWhat new feature did Hyperliquid launch on its mainnet according to the article?

AHyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits, and added a BLP yield feature to its Earn page.

QWhich token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply?

AThe EIGEN token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply.

Lecturas Relacionadas

Podcast Notes | Conversation with GSR Asset Management Head: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Watch the Lending Rates on Aave

Podcast Summary: Dialogue with GSR's Head of Asset Management: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Check Lending Rates on Aave Andy Baehr, Managing Director of Asset Management at GSR, discusses the current crypto market, characterizing it as stuck in a state of "ambivalence" with short-lived, unsustainable rallies. He outlines a simple framework: the market moves between "ambivalence" and "conviction" (sustained upward momentum). Currently, every rally resembles a single-stage rocket booster that quickly fizzles out. Baehr identifies three key signals to watch: 1) DeFi lending rates, 2) the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, and 3) the market forming a consensus on the "Fed hawkish peak." He emphasizes that the most immediate indicator for the sustainability of the recent CPI-triggered rally is the USDC borrowing rate on Aave, currently around 3.75%—close to U.S. Treasury yields. The absence of a credit spread indicates low leverage demand and a lack of market energy. He explains that a healthy, sustained rally requires layered buying pressure. Last year's rally progressed from an ETH short squeeze to crypto-native trader influx and finally to ETF inflows. Currently, this structure is missing. Other potential structural buyers like Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies are absent, and ETF flows have proven transient. Baehr notes that while small-cap crypto tokens outperformed large caps in Q2—a potential sign of capitation in major assets—capital is also flowing to more exciting opportunities like AI stocks and tech IPOs, leaving crypto sidelined. Regarding DeFi, he highlights that platforms like Aave provide a clear, real-time signal of leverage demand through their supply/demand-driven interest rates. A significant, sustained rate increase would signal genuine market conviction. He also observes the quiet emergence of fixed-income-like products and vaults in DeFi. On regulation, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing before the August 7th deadline has dropped linearly from 75% to below 40% on Polymarket. Baehr suggests its passage would be treated as a bullish surprise, a potent driver for price movement. However, political hurdles, including ethical clause debates and disclosures about the First Family's crypto profits, remain significant obstacles. Ultimately, the market awaits clarity on the Fed's terminal rate under Chair Warsh. Until the "Fed Solstice"—the point where the market collectively understands the peak of hawkish policy—sustained conviction will be difficult to achieve.

marsbitHace 10 min(s)

Podcast Notes | Conversation with GSR Asset Management Head: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Watch the Lending Rates on Aave

marsbitHace 10 min(s)

Send a Message to Transfer Coins? Telegram to 'Stuff' a Crypto Wallet into 1 Billion Users This Summer

Telegram founder Pavel Durov has announced that a native, non-custodial wallet called Gram wallet will be built into every Telegram app this summer. This move aims to provide instant, fee-free cryptocurrency transfers for the platform's over 1 billion monthly active users. Durov described it as the largest deployment of a non-custodial crypto wallet in history. The new wallet, developed by Telegram itself, differs fundamentally from the existing third-party @wallet bot. It will be non-custodial from the start, meaning users will control their private keys. Following the announcement, the GRAM token (formerly Toncoin) saw a price increase of approximately 8%. This initiative is part of Telegram's renewed control over the TON blockchain and its "Make TON Great Again" roadmap, marking a return to the project after a 2018 SEC lawsuit. The launch comes as other super-apps like X Money and Meta are also expanding into digital payments, with Telegram opting for a crypto-native approach. However, key details remain unclear, including the exact launch date beyond "this summer," how the promised zero fees will be implemented technically, and how asset support and private key management will work for mainstream users.

marsbitHace 53 min(s)

Send a Message to Transfer Coins? Telegram to 'Stuff' a Crypto Wallet into 1 Billion Users This Summer

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Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 proposal fuels HYPE staking as long-term conviction grows

Hyperliquid has proposed the HIP-4 upgrade to expand from perpetual futures into a broader, permissionless infrastructure layer for on-chain applications, requiring deployers to stake 500,000 HYPE to launch new markets. This shift aims to enable developers to build on its platform, a strategy backed by growing long-term investor conviction. Evidence includes a major trader staking millions in HYPE instead of taking profits, with total staked tokens reaching 43.9% of the supply, reducing available tokens and strengthening network security. Market metrics like high open interest and balanced funding rates suggest measured, non-speculative trader positioning. Sustained growth in protocol revenue, TVL, and governance participation further supports the positive outlook, contingent on continued user adoption and successful upgrade execution.

ambcryptoHace 55 min(s)

Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 proposal fuels HYPE staking as long-term conviction grows

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7 Months After the Collapse of Huiwang, Southeast Asia's Escrow Platforms Undergo a Major Reshuffle

Following the collapse of Huione Pay—dubbed the "Alipay of Southeast Asia"—seven months ago, the region's underground financial guarantee platform sector is undergoing a significant reshuffle. This power vacuum has been swiftly filled by emerging platforms such as XinBi, Tiger/Navigator, JinBei (renamed JinBo), Dali/Tiancheng, and FullyLight. These platforms, operating largely via Telegram and offering services like escrow for illicit transactions, have absorbed the vast user base and markets left behind by Huione. While positioning themselves as "trust intermediaries," their primary clientele consists of networks involved in online scams, money laundering, illegal gambling, and even human trafficking. For instance, the Tiger/Navigator platform explicitly provides "escrow" services for kidnapping-for-ransom operations ("强押车交易"). Data underscores the immense scale: Huione alone processed over $103 billion in cryptocurrency payments and facilitated over $31 billion through its escrow market before its downfall, linking it to Cambodia's notorious Prince Group. Since its collapse, competitors have seen explosive growth. For example, the XinBi platform has accumulated over $1.6 billion in total USDT revenue, while platforms like NewPay, OkPay (under Dali), and FullyLight Wallet collectively processed over $4.8 billion in USDT in a single year. This ecosystem thrives in regions like Cambodia and Myanmar, where regulatory gaps allow these platforms to act as critical financial infrastructure for sprawling cybercrime industries, from scam compounds to online casinos. The article concludes that the moniker "Southeast Asian Alipay" is a misnomer, obscuring the platforms' fundamental role in enabling serious criminal enterprises rather than representing legitimate financial innovation.

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7 Months After the Collapse of Huiwang, Southeast Asia's Escrow Platforms Undergo a Major Reshuffle

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The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

Title: The Shifting Landscape of Crypto Venture Capital The era of dedicated crypto venture capital funds is undergoing a significant transformation. Once essential for navigating the sector's complexity and high risk, these specialized funds are now facing an identity crisis as the market matures. This shift mirrors historical patterns in other specialized investment classes like cleantech and SPACs, where initial information advantages dissipate as technologies become mainstream and integrated into existing industry frameworks. The article argues that crypto is reaching a critical inflection point, transitioning from a "building phase" to an "integration phase." Major players like Stripe, BlackRock, and Visa now engage with crypto not for its novel mechanics but as a foundational financial infrastructure. Their needs—regulatory compliance, banking partnerships, distribution channels—align with traditional fintech, a domain easily understood by large, generalist funds like Sequoia and Founders Fund. This evolution creates a "barbell effect" within the VC landscape. On one end are massive, diversified platforms that can incorporate crypto as one vertical among many. On the other are small, nimble funds focused on niche, experimental projects. The middle ground—medium-sized dedicated crypto funds—is being squeezed out. Their typical fund size makes it impossible to generate sufficient returns solely from early-stage crypto bets, yet they cannot compete with giants for later-stage deals. Consequently, leading crypto-native firms like Paradigm and Framework Ventures are expanding into AI, robotics, and other sectors, driven partly by LP pressure for better returns amid a broader VC DPI crisis. Others, like Dragonfly and a16z, have narrowed their crypto focus predominantly to financial infrastructure like stablecoins, reframing the sector's core narrative. For crypto entrepreneurs, this consolidation presents challenges. While generalist funds offer larger checks and broader resources, crypto projects now compete fiercely with AI for attention and capital within these firms. Furthermore, the long-term, non-commercial foundational work that built the ecosystem—funded by dedicated crypto VCs—is less likely to attract generalist capital focused on direct returns. The conclusion is that "crypto investor" as a standalone category is becoming obsolete, akin to "internet investor." Crypto is becoming a baseline infrastructure layer. The future will see a barbell structure: large-scale growth financing handled by generalist funds, while pioneering, speculative projects are funded by small, specialized vehicles. The dedicated crypto funds of the 2017-2021 boom, which incubated core infrastructure, are giving way to this new, bifurcated reality.

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The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

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El mandato de HOLO es conectar estas aplicaciones Holochain (hApps) con los usuarios a través de tecnologías web familiares. El objetivo principal de HOLO es democratizar el acceso y uso de las DApps al permitir que los usuarios accedan a estas aplicaciones directamente a través de navegadores web estándar. Esta accesibilidad es clave para reducir la fricción para los usuarios promedio de internet, permitiéndoles utilizar aplicaciones de próxima generación sin necesidad de navegar por las complejidades a menudo asociadas con las criptomonedas y el uso de DApps. Creador de HOLO, $holo HOLO surge de la visión de sus creadores, Arthur Brock y Eric Harris-Braun. Ambos son desarrolladores experimentados y codificadores de contratos, y comenzaron el proyecto en diciembre de 2016 como parte del Proyecto MetaCurrency. Esta iniciativa se centró inicialmente en desarrollar herramientas y tecnologías destinadas a fomentar una economía de igual a igual. 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HoloFuel para Microtransacciones: HoloFuel está meticulosamente diseñado para acomodar microtransacciones, permitiendo que la red Holo gestione de manera eficiente miles de millones de transacciones simultáneamente. Esta capacidad es fundamental para la adopción generalizada, permitiendo a los desarrolladores crear aplicaciones que sean económicamente viables a gran escala. Conclusión HOLO representa un avance significativo en el panorama de las aplicaciones descentralizadas y la tecnología blockchain. Con su infraestructura robusta, enfoque amigable para el usuario y el innovador marco Holochain, HOLO está preparado para desempeñar un papel crucial en el futuro de la web. Si mejorará las experiencias cotidianas de internet o redefinirá cómo los desarrolladores y usuarios interactúan con las aplicaciones digitales sigue siendo una incógnita, pero su progreso hasta ahora vale la pena seguirlo a medida que el mundo continúa avanzando hacia una economía digital descentralizada. 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Discusiones

Bienvenido a la comunidad de HTX. Aquí puedes mantenerte informado sobre los últimos desarrollos de la plataforma y acceder a análisis profesionales del mercado. A continuación se presentan las opiniones de los usuarios sobre el precio de HOT (HOT).