(51/52) Weekly Market Watch | 5th Week of December | The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

marsbitPublicado a 2025-12-29Actualizado a 2025-12-29

Resumen

**Weekly Market Watch: 5th Week of December - The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting** **Market Overview & Key News:** The final week of December saw increased market volatility due to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts, though a clear directional trend was absent. Bitcoin closed the week nearly flat, with a marginal gain of 0.55%, while trading volume hit its lowest weekly level since July. Normal trading activity and liquidity are expected to resume after the New Year. **Macro Outlook: Strategic Commodity Clash** A significant development was China's announcement that, starting January 1, 2026, it will require special permits for white silver exports. This move is anticipated to have a major impact on global metal supply chains. In the US, October durable goods orders fell 2.2%, worse than the expected -1.5%. However, Q3 GDP growth was revised up to a strong 4.3%, significantly higher than the forecasted 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure. **Key Upcoming Economic Event:** * December 31st, 3:00 AM EST: Release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. **Weekly Crypto Roundup:** * **Institutional Moves:** Morgan Stanley is reportedly exploring offering crypto trading services (including spot and derivatives) to its institutional clientele. A major Russian bank executed the country's first crypto-backed loan, providing funds to a Bitcoin miner. * **Exchange Developments:** Coinbase announced the acqui...

Hot News: The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

Affected by the holiday period and the expiration of major options last Friday, market volatility intensified, but there is a lack of clear directional conviction. Bitcoin closed basically flat this week, with a slight increase of 0.55%, setting the lowest weekly trading volume since July. The market expects trading activity and liquidity to return to normal after the New Year.

Macro Outlook: Strategic Conflict in Commodities

Starting from January 1, 2026, the Chinese government will require special permits for silver exports. This move is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.
U.S. durable goods orders in October fell by 2.2%, lower than the market expectation of -1.5%. However, U.S. third-quarter GDP grew by 4.3%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Includes:

Wednesday, December 31, 3:00 AM: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Weekly Cryptocurrency Overview: Aave DAO vs. Aave Labs

According to reports, Morgan Stanley is exploring the provision of cryptocurrency trading services for its institutional client base, including spot and derivative markets.
Russian banking giant Sberbank executed the country's first cryptocurrency-collateralized loan, providing funding to Bitcoin miner Intelion Data.
Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its predictive market products. The transaction is expected to be completed in January 2026.
Kraken announced plans to enter the predictive market space, aiming to launch the service in 2026.
Travel giant Ctrip has integrated stablecoin payments, allowing global users to book travel services using digital assets.
Strategy increased its reserves by $748 million, bringing its total cash holdings to $2.19 billion, in addition to holding 671,268 BTC.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Networks

The Solana Foundation launched Kora, an audited fee intermediary and signature node designed to enable gas-free transactions and secure remote signing.
Polygon announced that major payment processor Shift4 has launched stablecoin settlement on its network, providing 24/7 payment services to tens of thousands of merchants.
Spire Labs deployed the first Base-based application chain on Celo, utilizing Self Protocol's privacy-preserving "human proof" to resist Sybil attacks.
Flow Network suffered an attack due to a layer vulnerability, resulting in a loss of $3.9 million.

Dapps

Hyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits and added a BLP yield feature on its Earn page.
The Polymarket team has indicated that developing and launching its dedicated layer 2 network is now the platform's primary task.
Kamino Finance launched PRIME, a new yield primitive on Solana offering an 8% low-correlation APY, backed by real-world HELOC credit provided by Figure.
GMX is now live on the Ethereum mainnet, allowing users to trade over 100 perpetual contract markets, trade on 23 spot markets, and provide liquidity through GM or GLV.
Maple Finance facilitated its largest single loan of 500 million USDC.
Resolv announced the expansion of its arbitrage market assets to HYPE on Hyperliquid and SOL on Binance Exchange, with an initial allocation of 10%.
Hinkal Protocol partnered with Resolv Labs to provide private trading for USR and RLP.
Mellow Protocol will integrate Fluid and Resolv on Plasma into its stRATEGY vault, allowing for modular institutional vault access without the need for custom engineering.
F(x) Protocol launched FX100 Perp, a new decentralized perpetual contract trading platform featuring non-liquidatable positions (positions will be rebalanced to reduce leverage) and leverage of up to 100x.
The ZK processor protocol Brevis released the tokenomics of its BREV token, which will serve as the payment, collateral, and governance token for the ProverNet market.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

The governance proposal for Aave DAO to take control of the Aave brand assets has been rejected.
The Uniswap community passed the Unification proposal and burned 1 billion UNI, and will activate the fee switch and implement other protocol changes after the timelock.
LayerZero's third fee switch public vote failed to reach quorum, meaning the protocol fees will remain closed for at least another six months.
The Bitcoin community is engaged in intense debate over the potential threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin network. Among them, BIP-360 was introduced into the discussion to implement an anti-quantum signature solution.

Token Unlocks

IO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.09% of the supply.
KMNO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.92% of the supply.
EIGEN tokens will unlock on January 1, accounting for 7.52% of the supply.
LA tokens will unlock on January 5, accounting for 5.94% of the supply.
MOVE tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 5.78% of the supply.
LINEA tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6% of the supply.
HOME tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 4.16% of the supply.
RAIN tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 11% of the supply.
US tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6.32% of the supply.
BB tokens will unlock on January 13, accounting for 10.9% of the supply.
ZKC tokens will unlock on January 15, accounting for 6.71% of the supply.

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Criptos en tendencia

CitreaCTR

wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Velodrome FinanceVELODROME

BrevisBREV

ZRX（0X）ZRX

PancakeSwapCAKE

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main reason for the increased market volatility mentioned in the article?

AThe increased volatility is attributed to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts from the previous week, though there is a lack of clear directional conviction.

QWhat significant policy change by the Chinese government is expected to impact the global metal supply chain starting January 1, 2026?

AThe Chinese government will require special permits for white silver exports, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.

QWhich company announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to enhance its prediction market products?

ACoinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its prediction market products, with the transaction expected to be completed by January 2026.

QWhat new feature did Hyperliquid launch on its mainnet according to the article?

AHyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits, and added a BLP yield feature to its Earn page.

QWhich token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply?

AThe EIGEN token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply.

Lecturas Relacionadas

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Post Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, But Is the Plunge Over?

US tech momentum stocks staged a sharp rebound on Tuesday (July 21st). Morgan Stanley's TMT Momentum Factor surged over 12%, marking its largest single-day gain on record, exceeding even peaks from the 2000 dot-com bubble. Key momentum indices from Goldman Sachs also posted their strongest daily performances in years. The rally was led by semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 4.6%. This rebound followed three consecutive down days and a cumulative 33% plunge in momentum stocks, one of the steepest drawdowns since the dot-com era. Analysts attribute the surge largely to a short squeeze. Heavy selling had pushed high-beta momentum stocks into deeply oversold territory, forcing many short sellers, particularly in Asia, to cover their positions, creating a self-reinforcing buying spiral. However, the rebound's internals appear weak. Trading volume was notably low, and advancing stocks still lagged decliners on the S&P 500, indicating a narrow, concentrated rally rather than broad market participation. Diverging views emerge on the outlook. BTIG warns the bounce has hit key resistance and recommends selling into strength, citing extreme volatility and historical parallels to past market tops. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and UBS believe the momentum unwind is nearing its end, suggesting it may be time to gradually add exposure, as positioning has been significantly reduced. They caution, however, that high volatility warrants a measured approach, potentially using defined-risk strategies. The upcoming earnings season, particularly reports from major tech firms like Alphabet, is seen as a critical test for the rally's sustainability. Simultaneously, bond markets flashed a warning, with yields rising partly due to spiking oil prices. Analysts note that if long-term Treasury yields break decisively higher, it could pose a significant headwind for equities, especially growth stocks.

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U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Post Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, But Is the Plunge Over?

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U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Record Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, but Has the Rout Ended?

U.S. tech momentum stocks staged a dramatic rebound on Tuesday, July 21st. Key momentum indices like the Morgan Stanley TMT Momentum Factor and Goldman Sachs' High Beta Momentum Long Index posted historic or near-historic single-day gains, fueled largely by semiconductor stocks. This sharp rally followed a severe three-day sell-off that saw momentum stocks plunge 33%, marking one of the steepest pullbacks since the dot-com bubble. Analysts attribute the bounce primarily to a short squeeze, as forced covering from over-leveraged traders, particularly in Asia, created a buying spiral. However, the rally's health is questioned due to weak market breadth—overall trading volume was low, and decliners outnumbered advancers in the S&P 500 despite the index's gain—suggesting a narrow, concentrated surge rather than broad recovery. Opinions on the sustainability diverge. BTIG strategists warn the rebound has hit key resistance levels, citing extreme volatility and historic stock dispersion as signs of an ongoing broader correction, and recommend selling into strength. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and UBS view the aggressive momentum unwinding as nearing its end, noting reduced positioning and a lack of new fundamental catalysts. They suggest the sell-off presents a selective opportunity to add exposure, albeit cautiously and gradually using defined-risk strategies. The immediate trajectory hinges on the ongoing earnings season, with market focus on Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance for AI investment clarity. Meanwhile, bond markets present a risk, with rising Treasury yields—potentially heading toward 5.5%—and widening credit spreads for mega-cap tech companies posing a threat to equity valuations. The combination of technical factors, earnings results, and macro conditions leaves the durability of the rebound in doubt.

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U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Record Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, but Has the Rout Ended?

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Bitcoin flashes 3 macro-bottom signals – But can BTC reach $70K?

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Long-Divided Must Unite, Long-United Must Divide: When L1 Becomes Its Own Rollup, What Is Ethereum's Endgame?

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Agent Race Ends, Super Workbench Takes Over

The era of fragmented AI agents is ending. Over the past month, China's tech giants—Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance—have simultaneously shifted strategy: instead of launching new, standalone AI agents, they are consolidating their various agent projects into unified "super workbenches." Tencent integrated its QClaw teams into WorkBuddy, a strategic product hailed as a potential third flagship after QQ and WeChat. Alibaba is merging its QoderWork, Wukong, and MuleRun agents into a new "Qianwen Office" platform under DingTalk's leadership. ByteDance rebranded its TRAE SOLO coding agent to TRAE Work, signaling a broader focus on workflow collaboration. This convergence marks a pivotal industry consensus. The initial exploration phase, where companies rapidly built numerous overlapping agents for different scenarios, proved costly and inefficient. With open-source tools eroding technical barriers, competition has shifted from agent creation to resource consolidation and cost control. Historically, platform wars are won not by creating more products, but by simplifying them—as seen with browsers unifying web access and super-apps consolidating services. Now, the "super workbench" aims to become the unified AI entry point for work. This reflects a deeper market realization: the primary audience for AI is no longer just programmers (a market in the tens of millions) but all knowledge workers (a market of billions). The real opportunity lies in augmenting everyday tasks—managing emails, documents, data, and meetings—across the entire workday. The core battleground is becoming control over the primary AI entry point that employees use daily. Tencent's WorkBuddy leverages WeChat and Tencent Docs; Alibaba's Qianwen Office taps into DingTalk's organizational data; ByteDance's TRAE Work integrates with Feishu's workflows. Whoever owns this "super workbench" gains strategic control over orchestrating enterprise data and APIs. This shift is redefining enterprise software. Traditional SaaS applications, valued for their user interfaces, will recede into the background. Their core functionalities will be exposed as standardized "Skills" or APIs for the super workbench's agents to invoke. Software value will shift from selling user seats to charging based on API calls and outcomes delivered. The evolution of agents is moving through clear stages: first as novel standalone products, then as consolidated primary work entry points, and finally as pervasive, invisible capabilities embedded into the digital fabric. The recent moves by major tech firms signal the transition from the first stage into the second, accelerating toward the third. In the end, the most successful agent technology may become invisible—like electricity or the HTTP protocol—a fundamental, unnamed infrastructure powering work itself.

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Discusiones

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