世界杯8强赛即将打响，AI们把晋级票投给了谁？

Q: 根据文章，哪四支球队被AI预测将晋级世界杯四强？

法国、西班牙、英格兰和阿根廷。

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2026-07-09Actualizado a 2026-07-09

Resumen

世界杯八强赛即将开始，人工智能模型对四场四分之一决赛的胜负进行了预测。所有AI一致认为法国、西班牙、英格兰和阿根廷将晋级四强。具体预测如下： 1. **法国 vs 摩洛哥**：所有AI都看好法国在常规时间内获胜，预测比分为2-0或2-1。 2. **西班牙 vs 比利时**：所有AI同样预测西班牙晋级，多数认为能在常规时间解决战斗（2-0或2-1），仅Gemini认为可能进入点球大战。 3. **挪威 vs 英格兰**：这是分歧最大的一场。AI均预测英格兰晋级，但对过程看法不一：部分认为英格兰能常规时间2-1取胜；部分（Claude、Gemini、ChatGPT）则警惕挪威球星哈兰德的威胁，认为比赛可能被拖入加时。 4. **阿根廷 vs 瑞士**：所有AI看好阿根廷晋级。预测比分集中在2-0或2-1，但Claude和ChatGPT提醒需防范瑞士的顽强防守可能将比赛拖入点球大战。总体而言，AI在晋级结果上高度一致，但对具体比赛进程（如比分、是否会进入加时或点球）的判断存在细节上的分歧。

原创 | Odaily 星球日报(@OdailyChina)

作者 | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)

世界杯 8 强落位后,真正的淘汰赛才刚刚开始。

法国一路保持强队姿态,进攻火力稳定,关键时刻总有人站出来;摩洛哥延续黑马气质,1/8 决赛 3:0 淘汰加拿大,再次证明自己不是昙花一现。西班牙踢得最稳,防守纪律和控球压制都在线,1/8 决赛绝杀葡萄牙,把 C 罗挡在 8 强门外;比利时则用 4:1 大胜美国的方式,重新打出了进攻端的存在感。

另一边,挪威成为本届最大惊喜,哈兰德带队 2:1 淘汰巴西,直接制造了淘汰赛最重磅的冷门;英格兰虽然过程磕绊,但仍靠阵容厚度 3:2 险胜墨西哥。阿根廷的晋级最戏剧化,0:2 落后埃及后完成 3:2 逆转;瑞士则把哥伦比亚拖进点球大战,用最典型的“硬骨头”方式闯进 8 强。

为了给接下来的 4 场 1/4 决赛相关预测事件提供参考,我分别问了 ChatGPT、Claude、Gemini、DeepSeek、千问和 Grok,让它们预测每场比赛的胜负、比分,以及是否会进入加时或点球。

从结果来看,AI 们在 4 场 1/4 决赛的晋级方向上保持一致,给出的四强答案是法国、西班牙、英格兰和阿根廷。真正的分歧,主要出现在比分、加时、点球这些细节上。

AI 全部预测法国晋级,摩洛哥难再复制黑马奇迹

本届世界杯 1/4 决赛第一场是法国对阵摩洛哥,比赛时间为北京时间 7 月 10 日凌晨 4 点。根据 predict.fun 数据,常规时间,法国获胜概率 63%;平局概率 25%;摩洛哥获胜概率 14%。此外,包括加时赛与点球,法国晋级概率 79%,摩洛哥晋级概率 22%。

这也是 4 场 1/4 决赛里,AI 模型分歧最小的一场。ChatGPT、Claude、Gemini、DeepSeek、千问和 Grok 全部看好法国晋级,区别只在于法国会赢 2:0 还是 2:1,以及摩洛哥能不能打进一球。

Claude 和千问都给出了法国 2:0 的预测。它们认为,法国是本届赛事最接近冠军模板的球队,锋线有姆巴佩、登贝莱和奥利塞持续制造冲击,中场又有坎特、琼阿梅尼、拉比奥特等人支撑,攻守两端都比摩洛哥更完整。摩洛哥虽然已经证明自己不是普通黑马,但阵容深度和个人能力,仍然很难和法国正面硬碰。

DeepSeek、Gemini、Grok 和 ChatGPT 则更倾向于法国 2:1。它们的判断是,摩洛哥不会被轻易打穿,仍有机会通过防守反击、定位球或边路推进制造威胁。但问题在于,摩洛哥很难在 90 分钟内持续限制法国的锋线爆点。只要比赛进入下半场,法国的个人能力和替补深度就会越来越明显。

综合来看,AI 模型们一致认为,法国会在常规时间晋级,不太需要加时或点球。

AI 更相信西班牙,比利时反击成唯一变数

本届世界杯 1/4 决赛第二场是西班牙对阵比利时,比赛时间为北京时间 7 月 11 日凌晨 3 点。根据 predict.fun 数据,常规时间,西班牙获胜概率 61%;平局概率 25%;比利时获胜概率 17%。此外,包括加时赛与点球,西班牙晋级概率 79%,比利时晋级概率 22%。

这场比赛,6 个 AI 模型同样全部看好西班牙晋级,但在比赛过程上,分歧比法国对阵摩洛哥更明显。

Claude、千问、DeepSeek 和 Grok 都认为,西班牙大概率能在常规时间内解决战斗,预测比分集中在 2:0 或 2:1。它们给出的核心理由为,西班牙目前整体性更强,控球、压迫、防守纪律都很稳定,比赛节奏大概率会被西班牙掌握在自己脚下。

ChatGPT 的预测更保守,看好西班牙 1:0 小胜。它认为这场不会踢成对攻战,而更像一场“体系稳定性”对“进攻爆发力”的较量。西班牙未必能打出大比分,但更有可能靠控球消耗、边路变化或一次定位球机会拿下比赛。

唯一认为有加时和点球的是 Gemini。它预测双方常规时间 1:1 战平,加时赛仍然没有改写比分,最后西班牙通过点球大战晋级。这个预测的关键在于,比利时如果能抓住一次反击机会先进球,西班牙就可能被拖进一场更消耗、更焦灼的比赛。

AI 分歧最大的一场,哈兰德成英格兰最大难题

本届世界杯 1/4 决赛第三场是挪威对阵英格兰,比赛时间为北京时间 7 月 12 日早上 5 点。根据 predict.fun 数据,常规时间,挪威获胜概率 23%;平局概率 27%;比利时获胜概率 53%。此外,包括加时赛与点球,挪威晋级概率 36%,英格兰晋级概率 66%。

哈兰德的存在,让这场淘汰赛成为 4 场 1/4 决赛里最可能踢出爆冷的一场。虽然 6 个 AI 最后都把晋级票投给了英格兰,但预测明显不像前两场那么确定。挪威上一轮 2:1 淘汰巴西,已经不是“能不能爆冷”的问题,而是他们刚刚就完成了一次爆冷。更重要的是,哈兰德这种球员不需要全场占优,只要一次机会,就可能把英格兰拖进麻烦。

千问、DeepSeek 和 Grok 都认为,英格兰大概率能在常规时间内 2:1 取胜。英格兰阵容厚度更好,贝林厄姆、凯恩、萨卡、福登都有决定比赛的能力。相比之下,挪威进攻更依赖哈兰德和厄德高之间的连线,一旦这条线路被切断,挪威的进攻威胁会明显下降。

但 Claude、Gemini 和 ChatGPT 都明显防了一手加时。Claude 认为英格兰可能常规时间险胜,也可能被挪威拖入加时;Gemini 预测双方常规时间 2:2 战平,英格兰在加时赛凭借板凳深度完成绝杀;ChatGPT 则给出 90 分钟 1:1、英格兰加时 2:1 晋级的预测。

AI 看好阿根廷晋级,瑞士或将比赛拖进点球大战

本届世界杯 1/4 决赛第四场是阿根廷对阵瑞士,比赛时间为北京时间 7 月 12 日上午 9 点。根据 predict.fun 数据,常规时间,阿根廷获胜概率 58%;平局概率 28%;瑞士获胜概率 17%。此外,包括加时赛与点球,阿根廷晋级概率 74%,瑞士晋级概率 27%。

这场比赛,AI 们一致认为阿根廷会晋级。不同于法国、西班牙那种更偏“强队压制”的预测,阿根廷对瑞士更像是一场耐心局。

千问和 Gemini 给出的预测最乐观,都看好阿根廷 2:0 常规时间取胜。阿根廷上一轮 0:2 落后埃及后完成 3:2 逆转,已经把球队的状态和士气重新拉了起来。面对瑞士这种进攻火力不算突出的球队,阿根廷只要减少后场失误,就有机会在 90 分钟内解决比赛。

DeepSeek 和 Grok 则更谨慎,都倾向于阿根廷 2:1 取胜。瑞士防守组织稳定,比赛纪律性强,不会轻易被阿根廷打穿。但问题在于,瑞士进攻端缺少持续压制能力,一旦阿根廷先取得进球,瑞士很难长时间把比赛重新拉回自己想要的节奏。

防加时和点球的是 Claude 和 ChatGPT。Claude 认为,瑞士这种对手很容易让阿根廷陷入苦战,比赛可能 1:1 进入加时,最后由点球大战决定胜负。ChatGPT 则直接给出阿根廷点球晋级的预测,认为瑞士有能力把比赛压成低比分消耗战,拖到最后再拼门将和点球质量。

Preguntas relacionadas

Q根据文章，哪四支球队被AI预测将晋级世界杯四强？

A法国、西班牙、英格兰和阿根廷。

Q在1/4决赛中，哪一场比赛被认为是AI模型之间分歧最小的？

A法国对阵摩洛哥的比赛是AI模型分歧最小的一场，所有AI都看好法国晋级。

Q文章提到哪个AI模型预测西班牙对比利时的比赛会进入点球大战？

AGemini模型预测西班牙和比利时常规时间1:1战平，最终西班牙通过点球大战晋级。

Q挪威队之所以能成为英格兰队的难题，主要是因为哪位球员的存在？

A哈兰德的存在让挪威队成为英格兰队的难题，他具备一次机会就能改变比赛的能力。

Q对于阿根廷对阵瑞士的比赛，哪两个AI模型认为比赛可能会进入点球大战？

AClaude和ChatGPT两个AI模型认为阿根廷对阵瑞士的比赛可能会进入点球大战。

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