Cardano rallies 13% ahead of van Rossem upgrade—but can the move last?

ambcryptoPublicado a 2026-07-04Actualizado a 2026-07-04

Resumen

Cardano's ADA surged 13.22% with trading volume up nearly 60%, coinciding with the anticipated van Rossem hard fork—an intra-era upgrade focused on performance, governance, and new Plutus functions. This move was also supported by a broader market rebound, with Bitcoin surpassing $62,000. Despite the rally, ADA's overall price structure remains bearish. The price recently fell below the crucial $0.235 support, and the swing structure turned bearish after breaking the $0.32 level in January 2026. Although the price breached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1789, a daily close above $0.19 is needed to shift the structure to bullish. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the MFI indicates upward momentum, but the CMF remains weak, reflecting a lack of sustained buying pressure. Analysts suggest the current bounce is overextended, with the MFI above 80. They identify a potential short opportunity for swing traders, with invalidation above $0.19 and downside targets near $0.138 and $0.126. In summary, while the upgrade provided a short-term catalyst, the underlying market structure suggests a rejection from the $0.178-$0.190 area is likely.

Cardano [ADA] has rallied 13.22% in the past 24 hours of trading, and its daily trading volume has exploded by nearly 60%. This price move came alongside the expected van Rossem hard fork.

This is an intra-era upgrade and not a major hard fork. It focuses on performance and governance, and introduces new Plutus built-in functions.

Combined with the broader market rebound and Bitcoin climbing back above $62,000, the upgrade gave Cardano another short-term catalyst.

What to expect next for Cardano

In April and May, the ADA bulls stubbornly clung to the $0.235 support level. Though the altcoin had been in a downtrend from September 2025, the price drop below $0.235 was a severe blow to bullish hopes.

The $0.32 support was another level of importance in the higher timeframe, which was broken in January 2026. This shifted the swing structure bearishly, and the structure remained in control of the sellers since then.

At the time of writing, too, the Cardano price action was bearish on the 1-day timeframe. The move from $0.19 to $0.138 in June was used to plot a set of Fibonacci retracement levels.

The 78.6% retracement level at $0.1789 has been breached to the upside, but the swing structure remained bearish. A daily session close above $0.19 is needed to flip the structure bullishly.

The technical indicators did not offer much hope to the bulls.

The MFI recovered above 50 to indicate upward momentum and increased buying pressure. Yet, the CMF was only at +0.03, despite the swift uptick in trading volume in recent days.

The CMF has been below 0 for the most part since March, signaling a lack of sustained buying pressure.

Traders’ call to action- Sell

The current Cardano bounce has reached overextended territory, according to the MFI indicator, whose readings were above the 80 threshold.

Swing traders have a good risk-to-reward opportunity to go short, with invalidation of the bearish idea being an H4 trading session close above $0.19. To the south, the $0.138 and $0.126 levels would be the next price targets.

Final Summary

The van Rossem hard fork, an intra-era upgrade, has helped bolster the short-term Cardano market sentiment.
The price structure was bearish across timeframes, and a rejection from the $0.178-$0.190 area appeared likely.

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Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main event driving Cardano's recent 13.22% price rally?

AThe expected van Rossem hard fork, which is an intra-era upgrade focusing on performance, governance, and new Plutus built-in functions, served as a short-term catalyst.

QWhat key price levels need to be breached for Cardano's market structure to turn bullish according to the analysis?

AA daily session close above the $0.19 level is needed to flip the price structure bullishly.

QWhat is the article's main trading recommendation and its rationale based on technical indicators?

AThe article recommends a 'Sell' or short trade. This is because the bounce is considered overextended (with the MFI above 80) and the broader price structure remains bearish. Invalidation for this bearish idea is an H4 close above $0.19.

QWhat do the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) readings indicate about buying pressure for Cardano despite the recent volume spike?

AThe CMF was only at +0.03 and has been mostly below zero since March, signaling a lack of sustained, significant buying pressure behind the recent price move.

QWhat were the two important historical support levels for ADA that were broken, shifting the market structure bearishly?

AThe $0.32 support level was broken in January 2026, and the $0.235 support level was broken more recently, which was a severe blow to bullish hopes.

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