Ставки на Нобелевскую премию мира на Polymarket под пристальным вниманием

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2025-10-13Actualizado a 2025-10-14

Норвежские власти, как сообщается, начали расследование ставок на платформах прогнозов на лауреата Нобелевской премии мира 2025 года Марию Корину Мачадо, подозревая их в шпионаже.

Согласно сообщению Bloomberg, опубликованному в понедельник, Норвежский Нобелевский институт, организация, помогающая Нобелевскому комитету в выборе лауреата премии мира, начал расследование сообщений о резком росте числа ставок на платформе прогнозов Polymarket за несколько часов до объявления Мачадо победителем.

По словам директора института Кристиана Берга Харпвикена, официальные лица все еще расследуют, удалось ли кому-то «украсть информацию и заработать на этом много денег».

Данные Polymarket показали, что один пользователь под ником «dirtycup» заработал более 30 000 долларов, сделав ставки на Мачадо на сумму около 70 000 долларов. Bloomberg сообщил, что три аккаунта, которые в основном делали похожие ставки, получили в общей сложности около 90 000 долларов.

Источник: Polymarket.

Мачадо получила премию мира за продвижение демократии в Венесуэле благодаря своей правозащитной деятельности. В 2024 году она назвала биткоин «спасательным кругом» во время гиперинфляции в стране, поскольку некоторые жители использовали его «для защиты своего богатства и финансирования побега».

Polymarket, запущенный в 2020 году, стал платформой для пользователей криптовалют, где можно делать ставки на исход самых разных событий - от Нобелевской премии до самых продаваемых музыкальных альбомов. На прошлой неделе материнская компания Нью-Йоркской фондовой биржи, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), инвестировала 2 000 000 000 долларов в Polymarket в преддверии анонсированного запуска в США.

Под прицелом СМИ и американских регуляторов

Рынки прогнозов недавно подверглись нападкам со стороны мультсериала «Южный парк», в котором высмеивались такие платформы, как Polymarket и Kalshi, а также американские регуляторы, ответственные за их надзор. Возможно, это не иронично, но в итоге некоторые прогнозы, сделанные в этом сериале, оказались на Polymarket.

В сентябре Комиссия по торговле товарными фьючерсами США (CFTC) направила письмо о запрете на проведение каких-либо действий в отношении двух компаний Polymarket. Этот шаг позволяет платформе предлагать контракты на мероприятия без предоставления данных, обычно требуемых в соответствии с законодательством США, без угрозы принудительного вмешательства.

Генеральный директор Polymarket Шейн Коплан заявил, что решение CFTC дало Polymarket «зеленый свет на запуск в США». Сообщается, что на прошлой неделе Коплан стал миллиардером после того, как Intercontinental Exchange инвестировала в Polymarket.

Lecturas Relacionadas

Sky Protocol prints record $419mln revenue – Will 2026 keep favoring it?

Sky Protocol reported strong growth amid a struggling broader crypto market in 2026, with its annualized gross revenue run rate reaching a record $419.08 million. The protocol's reserves grew to $82.5 million, and cumulative yield for sUSDS holders surpassed $250 million. sUSDS deposits and USDS supply saw significant year-over-year increases of 85% and 96.9%, respectively. Following the positive report, the native token SKY posted gains, reclaiming key moving averages and trading around $0.0602. The rally was supported by increased capital inflows, with USD inflows surging to $120 million and strengthened demand in both Spot and Futures markets. Technical indicators like the Stochastic Momentum Index suggested improving momentum, potentially opening the door for a move toward $0.064. However, a loss of momentum could see SKY retreat to $0.056. The team also announced plans to enhance ecosystem security and reduce operational costs.

ambcryptoHace 52 min(s)

Sky Protocol prints record $419mln revenue – Will 2026 keep favoring it?

ambcryptoHace 52 min(s)

Tiger Research: Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Nations Still View Them as Gambling

This article examines the rise of prediction markets, contrasting their growing institutional acceptance in the West with their restrictive regulation in Asia. It details how prediction markets, which originated from informal political betting and academic experiments like the Iowa Electronic Market, aggregate crowd wisdom into probabilistic prices through binary contracts. Their growth accelerated around 2020, reaching over $14 billion in monthly volume. A key driver is the "skin in the game" principle, where users risk their own capital, leading to high accuracy in predicting events like Fed rate decisions and elections, as demonstrated by platforms like Polymarket. Meta's entry, with Mark Zuckerberg reportedly leading the development of the Arena app, signals the market's maturation. In the U.S., court rulings have distinguished prediction markets from gambling, facilitating entry by traditional financial institutions. However, most Asian jurisdictions still classify them as gambling, focusing on social control rather than financial innovation. The article argues this stance creates three problems for Asia: 1) regulatory arbitrage pushes users to riskier offshore platforms, 2) loss of sovereign information infrastructure as valuable social sentiment data accumulates abroad, and 3) abandonment of user protection. It concludes that Asia needs a policy shift from prohibition to constructive regulation, integrating these markets into the formal system to harness their data as a national asset, as initiatives like Limitless Research are beginning to do.

marsbitHace 2 hora(s)

Tiger Research: Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Nations Still View Them as Gambling

marsbitHace 2 hora(s)

JPMorgan backs crypto bill as Donald Trump vows to ‘not sign other bills’ – What now?

The House-passed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 faces an uncertain future despite gaining significant backing from JPMorgan, a major shift for the traditionally crypto-skeptical bank. According to BitGo CEO Mike Belshe, this support is crucial as regulatory uncertainty has been the largest obstacle to institutional adoption. Should the bill pass, it could simplify market entry for institutional investors, potentially leading to wider cryptocurrency uptake. However, approval odds on Polymarket have dropped to 45%. Supporters, including Rep. French Hill and former CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, are pushing for a Senate vote before the August recess to force a compromise. Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin also supports the legislation. Yet, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes the current draft as enabling sanctions evasion. A further complication is former President Donald Trump's vow not to sign other bills until the SAVE America Act is passed, pushing the CLARITY Act's next deadline to August 7th.

ambcryptoHace 2 hora(s)

JPMorgan backs crypto bill as Donald Trump vows to ‘not sign other bills’ – What now?

ambcryptoHace 2 hora(s)

Ethereum's Next Decade in the Eyes of Vitalik

"Lean Ethereum" Long-Term Roadmap Unveiled by Vitalik Buterin On July 5, 2026, Vitalik Buterin published the "Lean Ethereum" roadmap, positioning it as Ethereum's third major evolution following the Merge. This multi-year, multi-phase upgrade aims to fundamentally transform Ethereum's core protocol through staged network upgrades extending to 2029. Key goals include achieving 1 gigagas per second L1 throughput (a massive increase from the current ~32 TPS), near-instant finality, and quantum-resistant cryptography. The plan involves transitioning Ethereum's security model from full transaction re-execution by all nodes to native verification via recursive STARK proofs. A major proposed change is replacing the EVM with a proof-friendly architecture like RISC-V or leanISA, though this remains a point of contention, especially with L2s like Arbitrum favoring alternatives like WASM. Other planned upgrades include a restructured state model with a large, cheap "warehouse" storage layer to drastically reduce fees for migrated applications, multi-dimensional gas pricing, and a new focus on making privacy a first-class, native protocol feature. While the roadmap significantly raises Ethereum's long-term technical ceiling, analysts note it does not directly address ETH's mid-term token economics or value capture. The plan's multi-year timeline means near-term price impact will likely depend on observable progress milestones, such as the successful deployment of the upcoming Glamsterdam gas limit increase, growth in L2 activity and blob usage, and trends in L1 fee revenue and ETH burn.

链捕手Hace 3 hora(s)

Ethereum's Next Decade in the Eyes of Vitalik

链捕手Hace 3 hora(s)

In Just 11 Days, Claude Rewrote Millions of Lines of Code, an Epic AI Engineering Feat Sparks Fury

In just 11 days, Bun's founder Jarred Sumner used Anthropic's Claude AI models to rewrite its million lines of code from Zig to Rust. This move sparked significant controversy, particularly from Zig's creator, Andrew Kelley, who publicly criticized Sumner's engineering practices and the decision to use AI for such a massive rewrite. Bun, a high-performance JavaScript/TypeScript runtime and rival to Node.js, was originally written in Zig. After Anthropic acquired Bun, the team encountered persistent stability and memory safety bugs in the Zig codebase. These issues, combined with Zig's strict policy against LLM-generated code, led to the decision to rewrite in Rust. The rewrite was executed using Claude AI tools at an estimated API cost of $165,000, dramatically reducing the expected time and financial cost. Andrew Kelley's response was scathing. He blamed the original bugs on poor engineering habits, calling Bun's Zig code a collection of "hacks on top of hacks." He expressed relief that Bun was no longer associated with Zig, fearing it would misrepresent the language and attract low-quality, AI-generated contributions. The tech community is divided; some view Kelley's critique as unprofessional, while others see it as a defense of engineering integrity. A major concern about the AI-driven rewrite is the resulting code quality. The translation from Zig left approximately 27,000 lines of unsafe Rust code, raising fears about long-term maintainability and technical debt. The debate centers on whether this project is a milestone in AI-assisted development or a future maintenance nightmare.

marsbitHace 4 hora(s)

In Just 11 Days, Claude Rewrote Millions of Lines of Code, an Epic AI Engineering Feat Sparks Fury

marsbitHace 4 hora(s)

Trading

Spot