[Key interpretation] CHZ giant whale has greatly reduced its currency holdings, and BTC long-term investors have reduced their selling by 90%

HuobiPublicado a 2022-08-25Actualizado a 2022-08-26

Resumen

BTC's sideways consolidation, a large amount of CHZ flowed into the exchange, and the top 10 main holders of coins cleared their positions.

1. BTC horizontal plate finishing

BTC's performance in the daily K-line chart is relatively stable, and more trading volume is really accumulated in the price horizontal movement stage. This shows that,

After the rapid withdrawal of the price on August 19, it did not obviously fall below the cost price of the recent bargain hunters, so there is more room for flexibility in the market. In terms of trading volume, the BTC trading volume in the daily K-line is relatively stable and has not been significantly reduced. The trading activity of investors is very stable, and the high activity helps the price rise positively.

2. The selling pressure of long-term investors is small

With the continuation of the BTC adjustment, the data of the number of coins destroyed per day, which represents the trading trend of long-term investors, remains at a low level. This indicator continues to retreat, which means that the selling of long-term investors is very low. The peak value of the number of coins destroyed per day has dropped from 74 million on June 17 to 41 million. Recently, the number of coins destroyed per day has been maintained at a low level below 8.16 million. On August 24, the number of coins destroyed per day was only 3.93 million. This shows that during the period of price sideways operation, long-term investors hold stable currencies and the selling pressure drops by more than 90%, which means that the possibility of further short-term decline is decreasing.

3. CHZ soared strongly by more than 180%

In the strong rising stage of CHZ, the highest increase reached more than 180%, and the trading volume was more than 4 times of the previous low. Judging from this, the price rise of CHZ has triggered investors' enthusiasm for trading, and the turnover rate has also increased significantly. The trading volume of the four consecutive trading days shown in the figure maintains a stable recovery, and the fluctuation space is very small. At this time, the turnover rate of long and short sides is high, and the selling pressure is naturally at a high level.

In terms of trend, the price of CHZ is close to the brin line, and the short-term selling pressure can be focused on the early high of US $0.3. On the weekly level, we can pay attention to the pressure level below US $0.24 since the beginning of 2021, so there is great uncertainty about the signs of rising.

4. CHZ's main currency holdings decreased significantly

During the period when the price of CHZ rebounded significantly, the change in the number of main currency holders deserves the most attention of investors. From the number of the top 10, top 20, top 50 and top 100 main holders of coins, there was a big change from August 21 to August 22. The number of CHZ held by the top 10 main holders of coins decreased significantly from 68.71% to 0.67%. Accordingly, among the top 20, top 50 and top 100 major holders of coins, the number of coins held decreased from 76%, 81% and 86% to 0.77%, 6.57% and 10.92%. The rising potential of CHZ may have been greatly discounted after the decrease of holding currency in the near clearing mode.

5. CHZ flows into the exchange

The driving factor of the price rise of CHZ may be attributed to the world cup expectation. As a token of fans, CHZ does a lot of things, such as signing nearly 50 clubs and reaching an agreement with Barcelona football club, one of the largest football clubs in the world, to sell 24.5% of the shares of Barcelona studio at a price of US $100 million. There are event driving factors for the heat rise, and attention needs to be paid to the changing trend of the selling pressure of the exchange. Judging from the number of CHZ exchanges waiting for trading, the recent value remains at a high level. At the same time, the peak recorded in the exchange appeared on August 22, with the largest selling pressure, which was similar to the date when the main currency holdings decreased. According to this judgment, we should pay attention to the price trend and the callback risk in the short term.

Lecturas Relacionadas

¿El repunte de las criptomonedas alternativas (altcoins) significa que ha vuelto el mercado alcista?

En los últimos días, mientras Bitcoin se mantiene estable, algunas altcoins de baja capitalización (menos de $20 millones) han experimentado subidas explosivas de hasta 10x en pocos días. Esto no se debe a un regreso de la tendencia alcista general ("altseason"), sino a una vulnerabilidad estructural creada por la caída del 40% en la capitalización total del mercado de altcoins desde diciembre de 2024. La drástica reducción de la capitalización ha facilitado que actores con capital limitado acumulen grandes porciones de la oferta circulante de ciertos tokens, permitiéndoles manipular el precio. Casos como el de SIREN, donde una entidad controlaba hasta el 88% de la oferta, lo demuestran. Los vendedores en corto (shorters) se convierten en combustible para estas subidas, ya que las tasas de financiación negativas extremas (hasta -0.4579% cada 8 horas) y las liquidaciones automáticas crean un ciclo de compra que impulsa el precio aún más. Los datos indican que esta actividad es impulsada por capital existente, no por nuevo dinero entrante. El índice "Altseason" se sitúa en 34/100 y la dominancia de Bitcoin en el 58.5%, lo que dista mucho del verdadero "altseason" de 2021. Los flujos de los ETF institucionales hacia altcoins like Solana o XRP son débiles o negativos, confirmando que el capital institucional sigue anclado principalmente en Bitcoin. En resumen, estas subidas explosivas son un eco de la manipulación en mercados frágiles y con poca liquidez, no una señal de que un mercado alcista generalizado haya regresado.

marsbitHace 12 min(s)

¿El repunte de las criptomonedas alternativas (altcoins) significa que ha vuelto el mercado alcista?

marsbitHace 12 min(s)

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片