Overview
Given the rising uncertainty around the new administration’s plan for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) over recent weeks, the Bitcoin market has seen divergent trends across sectors. Spot and ETF activity are rising, while derivatives and on-chain metrics continue to decline. Spot markets have strengthened, fueled by higher trading volume and a noticeable buy-the-dip reaction following the recent price drop. ETF demand has notably rebounded when compared to last weeks de-risking, with institutional interest beginning to stabilize. However, MVRV levels indicate a more neutral sentiment, reflecting tempered investor expectations.
On the derivatives front, futures open interest has declined, and funding rates remain moderate, pointing to reduced speculative leverage. Perpetual CVD remains negative, indicating continued sell-side pressure from futures traders despite the improving sentiment in spot markets.
On-chain activity is cooling off - declines in active addresses, transfer volume, and total fees signal lower network utilization and reduced economic throughput. Liquidity metrics reveal a slowdown in realized cap growth, suggesting a shift from aggressive accumulation to a more cautious market stance. Meanwhile, profitability indicators continue to decline, with fewer profits being realized relative to losses, hinting at growing risk aversion among investors.
Overall, while spot and ETF activity suggest a noticeable buy-the-dip pattern, on-chain and derivatives data reflect lingering caution, making the market highly sensitive to any future directional catalysts.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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