They Knew the TGA Game of the Year Winner in Advance and Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars

marsbitPublished on 2025-12-12Last updated on 2025-12-12

Abstract

Summary: The 2025 TGA (The Game Awards) ceremony concluded with the indie game "Light & Shadow: Expedition 33" making history by winning both "Best Independent Game" and the coveted "Game of the Year (GOTY)" award, breaking a long-standing TGA curse. Prior to the event, the prediction market platform Polymarket had already listed the topic, with "Light & Shadow's" probability of winning GOTY consistently above 80% for over a month. Several traders, including users DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae, placed unusually large, concentrated bets on this outcome weeks in advance, a move that would have resulted in massive losses if wrong. Their bets appeared to be "all-in" convictions rather than calculated risks. Just three hours before the GOTY announcement, after the "Best Indie" award was given to the same game, a mysterious user (bobo9997) deposited $10,000 and bet it all on "Yes" for "Light & Shadow" winning GOTY at a price of $0.98 per share—a bet that would yield less than $200 in profit if correct. The final award confirmed the predictions. The early traders realized significant profits, with their winnings from this single event representing a large percentage of their total historical earnings on the platform (e.g., 176% for DieselDiesel). The article suggests these traders likely had insider knowledge of the results, using the prediction market as a anonymous, low-risk method to monetize their confidential information, turning a guaranteed outcome into thousands of d...

Today, the highly anticipated The Game Awards (TGA) ceremony finally concluded.

Let's jump back to 3 hours before the awards ended. At that time, the "Best Independent Game" had just been awarded to the popular title "Light & Shadow: Expedition 33," but this instead made many fans worried: historically, no game has ever won both the "Best Independent Game" and the "Game of the Year (GOTY)" awards at TGA. As a GOTY favorite, "Light & Shadow" now needed to break the curse that had existed since TGA's inception and create an unprecedented moment in gaming history.

Just as everyone was filled with anxiety, a mysterious individual registered an account on a seemingly unrelated "prediction market" platform and deposited ten thousand dollars. He found the topic "Will Light & Shadow win the 2025 GOTY?" on the platform and bet the entire ten thousand dollars on "Yes." At that time, the price for "Yes" was $0.98 per share, meaning that even if "Light & Shadow" did indeed make gaming history by winning both awards, his ten-thousand-dollar bet would only yield a profit of less than two hundred dollars. However, if "Light & Shadow" failed to break the TGA curse, the probability of the topic would instantly drop to 0, which meant his newly deposited ten thousand dollars would be wiped out. What kind of狂热 fan of "Light & Shadow" would take such a reckless risk? And how do prediction markets attract game fans from around the world to guess the winners in advance?

The "Pre-Determined" Script

As early as October 30th, a month and a half before the awards ceremony, the prediction market Polymarket had already launched the topic for "2025 Game of the Year." The probability of "Light & Shadow" winning was firmly pinned above 80% from the start, while the probabilities of other highly anticipated AAA titles winning were suppressed below 10%. Because such a one-sided situation usually only occurs in events where the outcome is already certain, this anomaly made many traders smell something unusual: this wasn't just optimism, this was certainty.

Among these traders with a "certain" attitude, a few operated in an extremely unified style, hinting at the possibility of insider trading. DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae all bet on "Light & Shadow wins TGA 2025 GOTY" when the probability was around 85%, and the amounts they bet were dozens or even hundreds of times larger than their usual bets. This highly concentrated,反常 betting behavior meant they faced enormous risks: if "Light & Shadow" ultimately did not win, they would not only have to give up all past profits but also suffer huge losses.

As time progressed and the probability of "Light & Shadow" winning increased, they did not sell any of their held shares to realize profits. Even 3 hours before the award announcement, after the "Best Independent Game" award had been announced, they, already significantly浮盈, remained motionless as if they knew the future, betting their entire account balance alongside the mysterious individual mentioned at the beginning for that final, tiny profit.

The Historic Award Moment and the Cashing Out of Insiders

Amid doubts and unease, TGA played out exactly like the script these few traders had arranged over a month ago, dispelling the final suspense: the highly anticipated "Light & Shadow," having already won the "Best Independent Game" award, broke the historical curse and won the Game of the Year award.

And while players on one side cheered and celebrated, the mystery was solved in the prediction market on the other side: the three traders who had been convinced since a month ago that "Light & Shadow" would win confirmed their role of "foreseeing the future" and realized huge profits:

DieselDiesel made a profit of $5,357 in this event, accounting for 176% of all his other trading profits;

trumpnogo made a profit of $2,958 in this event, accounting for 62% of all his other trading profits;

kasae made a profit of $1,658 in this event, accounting for 220% of all his other trading profits.

And the mysterious individual (bobo9997) mentioned at the beginning, because he was certain that "Light & Shadow" would make history," used ten thousand dollars to win a "whopping" $200.

"Even Those Who Foresee the Future Need to Eat"

The most noteworthy common point among these four traders is that while many players doubted whether "Light & Shadow" could break the historical curse, they were "willing to risk" nearly $100,000 in positions to "gamble" on this historic moment happening, and this "gamble" brought them less than two thousand dollars in combined profits.

Now, let's assume these "foreseers" are TGA vote auditing staff. As insiders with an annual income of $100,000, if they wanted to monetize the information in a traditional way, they would need to sell the insider information to media platforms, but this represents various potential fines, dismissal, and even imprisonment. However, with the emergence of prediction markets, they can use anonymity to convert information asymmetry into real money equivalent to 1 to 3 months of their disposable income.

When we view them as assumed insiders who already knew the result in advance, everything becomes clear: being 100% sure that "Light & Shadow" would be GOTY, their final "bet" was just using the one-hour wait time before the announcement to换取 seemingly huge risks but实际上毫无变数的 two thousand dollars in profit. This kind of seemingly high-risk but实际上毫无变数的赚钱 "bet" was almost impossible to encounter before platforms like prediction markets appeared.

However, with the popularity of Polymarket, how many people can resist converting information into real money anonymously?

With Ozak AI Now Above $7 Million Raised, Analysts Warn That Remaining Presale Allocation Could Shrink Rapidly as Late Buyers Rush To Secure Positions.

Ozak AI is experiencing significant presale momentum, having raised over $7 million across its phases. Currently in its 7th presale stage priced at $0.014, analysts warn the remaining allocation is shrinking rapidly as late buyers rush to secure tokens before the price increases and it lists on major exchanges with a target of $1. Demand is driven by its advanced AI technology, which uses specialized multi-agent systems for real-time blockchain data analysis, predictive tools, and personalized AI agents. Early investors have seen substantial returns, with gains up to 1300%. The project is also strengthening its ecosystem through key partnerships. With limited supply and high demand, analysts suggest the current presale offers a final opportunity for investors before potential significant price appreciation post-listing.

TheNewsCrypto36m ago

With Ozak AI Now Above $7 Million Raised, Analysts Warn That Remaining Presale Allocation Could Shrink Rapidly as Late Buyers Rush To Secure Positions.

TheNewsCrypto36m ago

I vibe-coded an Android app using Google

In a hands-on experience, Google AI Studio's new "prompt to phone" feature allows users to generate functional Android apps using natural language prompts. The author created three apps in one afternoon: a text-based adventure game called MOOD, a calorie counter, and a Super Mario-style game featuring Peach. The process involved describing the app concept, letting Gemini AI generate the code and interface, and then installing it directly onto a connected phone. While the apps were generated and installed quickly, their quality varied significantly. The text adventure was simplistic and buggy, the calorie counter provided inaccurate data due to flawed logic, and the platformer was prone to crashes. The AI could efficiently fix specific, identifiable bugs through follow-up prompts. However, the experience highlighted that while AI can rapidly prototype "working" software, creating reliable, accurate, and polished applications still requires human oversight, judgment, and iteration. The tool dramatically lowers the barrier to entry for personal software creation but doesn't yet replace the need for developer expertise in the final stages of quality and refinement.

marsbit2h ago

I vibe-coded an Android app using Google

marsbit2h ago

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

On his first day in office, newly inaugurated Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh received a stark market warning, with expectations now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike this year. The shift was triggered by hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that inflation is now the key policy "driver" and that the odds of a hike or cut are evenly split. This sent short-term Treasury yields higher. Waller signaled a significant pivot in his stance, citing disappointing inflation and labor data. He suggested removing "easing bias" language from Fed statements and did not rule out future rate increases if inflation fails to recede, though he noted immediate action isn't warranted without signs of unanchored inflation expectations. Chairman Warsh faces immediate pressure at his first FOMC meeting in June. With the preferred inflation gauge at a three-year high, analysts warn that failing to hike could be interpreted as an implicit easing of policy. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is adding to existing price pressures. The market's expectation for a hike contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts for multiple cuts. While long-term Treasury yields have been contained by lower energy prices recently, analysts note they remain under structural upward pressure. Warsh's swearing-in at the White House highlights political scrutiny over Fed independence. However, the market has made it clear that inflation is the most urgent challenge, leaving the new chairman little time to settle in.

marsbit3h ago

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

marsbit3h ago

Has Microsoft Lost Its Way in the AI Race, and Can Copilot Bring It Back on Track?

Microsoft, once seen as an early AI frontrunner due to its investment in OpenAI, is navigating a strategic shift amid increased competition. Its initial reliance on OpenAI’s GPT models has been complicated by OpenAI’s growing ambitions as a direct competitor, rapid advancements from rivals like Claude and Gemini, and the disruptive rise of AI agents, which challenge its traditional SaaS business model. These factors contributed to stock declines and slower-than-expected adoption of its flagship Copilot products. In response, CEO Satya Nadella has taken a hands-on role in product development, signaling the urgency of change. Microsoft is pivoting from a model-centric strategy to a "model-agnostic" enterprise platform approach. It aims to become the foundational layer connecting various AI models—from OpenAI, Anthropic, or its own new "Superintelligence" team—with enterprise workflows, data, security, and cloud services. Recent organizational changes merged consumer and enterprise Copilot teams to accelerate innovation, exemplified by new products like Copilot Tasks and Copilot Cowork. However, this transformation comes at a high cost. Microsoft faces massive capital expenditures, potentially reaching ~$190 billion by 2026, to support AI infrastructure. While its platform strategy shows early signs of traction with growing Azure AI revenue, it must balance startup-like agility with the reliability expected by enterprise clients. The core challenge is no longer being the sole AI winner but defending its position as the essential enterprise software entry point amidst rapid technological commoditization and the shift towards always-on AI agents.

marsbit4h ago

Has Microsoft Lost Its Way in the AI Race, and Can Copilot Bring It Back on Track?

marsbit4h ago

Why Haven't Forex Stablecoins Taken Off?

Why FX Stablecoins Never Took Off: A Path Forward via Synthetic FX Despite the explosive growth of stablecoin-powered digital banking, which has seen ~$6B in VC investment and a 24x surge in crypto card spending in under a year, a major limitation persists: these banks are essentially dollar-only accounts. This leaves 95-99% of global accounts, which are denominated in non-USD currencies, underserved. Attempts to create native foreign currency (FX) stablecoins (like EURC) have largely failed, with total FX stablecoin TVL at ~$600M compared to $400B for USD stablecoins—a 700x gap. These FX tokens face critical challenges: fragile pegs due to low liquidity, limited exchange/FinTech acceptance, poor on/off-ramps, complex regional compliance, and a chicken-and-egg adoption problem. The article argues that the solution lies not in competing with entrenched USD stablecoin networks (USDT/USDC), but in adopting a synthetic FX model inspired by traditional finance. Specifically, it advocates for Mark-to-Market Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs)—cash-settled FX derivatives that allow users to maintain underlying USD stablecoin holdings while having their account balance and P&L denominated in a foreign currency. This approach offers key advantages: strong oracle-based pegs, retention of deep USD stablecoin liquidity and yield, superior on/off-ramps, scalability to any currency with a reliable feed, and capital efficiency. It mirrors how modern institutional FX markets operate. Primary use cases for on-chain NDFs include: 1. **Digital Banks/Wallets:** Enabling multi-currency accounts for international users without leaving the USD stablecoin ecosystem, boosting deposits and retention. 2. **FX Carry Trade Vaults:** Offering access to sovereign interest rate differentials (e.g., earning yield on BRL) in a more stable and scalable format than crypto-native products like Ethena. 3. **Global Enterprise Payments:** Allowing merchants to receive payments in local currency equivalents while settling in USD stablecoins, similar to services offered by Stripe for fiat. The conclusion is that synthetic FX, not native FX stablecoins, is the viable path to integrating foreign exchange into the growing stablecoin digital banking landscape, potentially unlocking the next phase of institutional DeFi and multi-trillion-dollar global adoption.

链捕手4h ago

Why Haven't Forex Stablecoins Taken Off?