Bitcoin (BTC) Year-End Push to $100,000 Largely Depends on Fed Policy Pivot Outcome
Bitcoin's potential to reach $100,000 by year-end is heavily dependent on the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shift. The recent 4% drop in Bitcoin, bringing it to a low of $88,140, highlights the market's sensitivity to monetary policy and credit risk.
A key factor is the Fed's transition away from quantitative tightening, which concluded on December 1. Over the past six months, this policy has removed $1.36 trillion in liquidity from the financial system. The market is now pricing in a high probability of rate cuts, with expectations for three reductions by September 2026. Lower interest rates and increased systemic liquidity reduce the appeal of fixed-income assets, as seen with money market funds hitting a record $8 trillion.
Simultaneously, rising credit risk in the tech sector, exemplified by Oracle's soaring debt protection costs, is pushing investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin. Oracle, with $105 billion in debt, relies heavily on AI-driven revenues, and the market's growing concern over the sustainability of such debt-fueled growth is creating structural unease.
This combination of the Fed's policy pivot, diminishing fixed-income appeal, and tech sector credit risk sets the stage for capital rotation into Bitcoin. The path to $100,000 appears clearer as these macroeconomic and credit dynamics converge.
cointelegraph_中文12/10 10:47
