Tech Mogul Gavin Baker's Three Counter-Consensus Calls: Trainium is Undervalued, TSMC is Saving the Market, and Space-Based Computing Will 'Show Its Mettle' Within Two Years
Tech investor Gavin Baker recently shared contrarian views at the Sohn 2026 conference. He argues Amazon's Trainium AI chip is the most undervalued, citing its unique capability for running modern MoE AI models via switched scaleup networks, a feature he says only it and Nvidia's infrastructure possess. He predicts Trainium 3's 2026 impact will mirror TPU's in 2025.
Baker believes TSMC's cautious expansion, resisting Nvidia's push for rapid capacity increases, is helping prevent an AI bubble by imposing a real-world physical constraint on supply.
On orbital compute, Baker forecasts feasibility will be proven within two years, with space-based data centers gaining meaningful market share by decade's end, potentially disrupting ground-based power and cooling suppliers.
Regarding the memory cycle, while historical patterns suggest selling now, Baker compares the current situation to the mid-1990s "true capacity cycle," implying it may still be early. He also expects faster-than-expected AI revenue growth as pricing shifts from subscriptions to pay-per-use models.
His core investment philosophy emphasizes reading over management meetings and a lifelong struggle to act on the "sell the losers, keep the winners" principle.
marsbit05/25 06:41
