# Risk Assets Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Risk Assets", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

How Could the Strengthening of the Japanese Yen Affect Bitcoin?

The Japanese yen recorded its largest daily gain against the US dollar after the USD/JPY pair reversed from a recent high near 164.00. This suggests movements in the yen can impact global financial conditions, including Bitcoin. On the daily chart, the USD/JPY reversal followed a multi-month rally. Intense selling erased several days of gains, pushing the pair below 160.00 before a recovery to around 160.59. Despite signs of demand at lower levels, the failed attempt to hold above recent highs indicates weakening bullish momentum. The yen strengthened by as much as 3%, pulling the dollar down to an intraday low of 158.34. Analysts note the move's scale and unusually high trading volumes resemble past intervention episodes. Market focus is now on the Bank of Japan's signals and interest rate outlook, with hawkish cues potentially supporting further yen strength. A stronger yen could create short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin, particularly if investors unwind carry trades funded by cheap yen borrowings. However, if sustained yen strength lowers Japanese government bond yields and improves global liquidity, it could eventually foster more favorable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price fell 2.5% to $62,500, which may reflect initial investor selling.

cryptonews.ru13h ago

How Could the Strengthening of the Japanese Yen Affect Bitcoin?

cryptonews.ru13h ago

What is expected to happen to Bitcoin's price after the Fed's decision and inflation data?

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen assessed the latest U.S. inflation data and its potential macroeconomic impact on Bitcoin (BTC). Recent data, including a 0.1% monthly decline in the PCE index and moderate economic growth, was received positively by markets, with Bitcoin maintaining a stable trajectory without a sharp decline. However, Cowen highlighted internal divisions within the Fed regarding interest rates. Despite current rates being held stable, three FOMC members voted for a hike, suggesting monetary tightening may not be over. He pointed to the relationship between 2-year Treasury yields and the Fed's discount rate, indicating that when yields exceed the rate, the restrictive impact of policy weakens. Cowen warned that if the labor market heats up again, inflationary pressure could resume, creating a high probability of a surprise Fed rate hike in the latter half of the year, potentially in September. Such a hike, occurring when cuts are expected, could shock investors and accelerate a flight from risk assets. Regarding Bitcoin's price cycles, Cowen suggested the market bottom may not be in yet, and based on historical data, the most likely scenario is for Bitcoin to find its true low in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year.

cryptonews.ruYesterday 19:16

What is expected to happen to Bitcoin's price after the Fed's decision and inflation data?

cryptonews.ruYesterday 19:16

How will the Fed's hawkish stance affect Bitcoin? Experts point to liquidity pressure! Here are the details

The U.S. Federal Reserve's persistently hawkish monetary policy stance is expected to continue pressuring cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin, despite holding interest rates steady. Analysis following the July 29 rate decision indicates this approach, aimed at combating inflation even at the risk of slowing growth, creates unfavorable macroeconomic conditions for crypto assets. Tighter policy could reduce system-wide liquidity and dampen investor risk appetite. Specifically, crypto positions reliant on leverage or cheap financing will face higher costs, potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin. Institutional investors may adopt more defensive portfolio strategies if the Fed's firm rhetoric persists, potentially increasing selling pressure on risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. A accelerated shift toward safer havens such as bonds and cash could slow capital inflows into crypto markets. While Bitcoin has shown relative resilience, maintaining key support levels amid recent macroeconomic shifts, experts warn that any new or unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Fed regarding further policy tightening could trigger fresh market volatility. In such a scenario, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies might face additional near-term price pressure.

cryptonews.ruYesterday 08:50

How will the Fed's hawkish stance affect Bitcoin? Experts point to liquidity pressure! Here are the details

cryptonews.ruYesterday 08:50

Unexpected Interest Rate Forecast from $67 Billion Asset Management Firm Citadel! Is Bitcoin Under Threat?

As markets await the Federal Reserve's rate decision, views are diverging. While most analysts expect rates to hold steady, Citadel Securities, a $67 billion asset manager, predicts the Fed could surprise with a 25 basis point hike. According to CME's FedWatchTool, the market currently sees a 68.5% chance of no change and a 31.5% chance of an increase. Citadel's Head of Macro Strategy, Frank Flight, told CoinDesk that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh might raise rates unexpectedly at this meeting to reinforce the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation. Flight argues such a move would mark a shift from the Fed's long-standing practice of signaling policy changes in advance, thereby strengthening its perceived independence and credibility on inflation. He contends a hike this week would have a stronger impact than waiting until September. An unexpected increase could boost confidence in the Fed's inflation fight, influence corporate pricing and wage expectations, and potentially avert the need for more aggressive tightening later. Flight noted that such a surprise hike could apply short-term pressure to risk assets, including Bitcoin, if it leads to higher Treasury yields. (Disclaimer: This is not investment advice.)

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 13:11

Unexpected Interest Rate Forecast from $67 Billion Asset Management Firm Citadel! Is Bitcoin Under Threat?

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 13:11

ETH/BTC Tests Four-Year Resistance Level. Here's What It Means.

The ETH/BTC pair is testing a four-year resistance level against a backdrop of a rising copper-to-gold ratio. According to market analyst Michael van de Poppe, after nearly four years of underperformance, the altcoin is approaching a critical technical test against Bitcoin. The copper-to-gold ratio is rising after breaking its long-term downtrend structure. The analyst suggests ETH/BTC could follow a similar path if it overcomes the remaining technical resistance. Historical cycles indicate that ETH/BTC recovery typically began three to six months after the copper/gold pair bottomed. If this pattern holds, Ethereum could break its long-term resistance against Bitcoin in the coming weeks. However, macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable for risk assets. Analysts cite a 60% probability of a September rate hike and the 10-year Treasury yield nearing 4.6% as headwinds for high-risk markets. Confirming a breakout would require a sustained weekly close above the long-term resistance level and for the ETH/BTC pair to hold above reclaimed moving averages. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $63,912, down 1.76% over 24 hours, while Ethereum corrected 1.51% to $1,907.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 07:04

ETH/BTC Tests Four-Year Resistance Level. Here's What It Means.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 07:04

Sliders from Samsung and SK Hynix — An Early Risk Indicator for Bitcoin Traders

Shares of South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix plummeted over 10% this week, dragging Seoul's Kospi index to a three-month low. This sell-off drew close attention from Bitcoin traders, as these semiconductor stocks are now viewed as an early indicator of broader market sentiment. The sharp declines in Seoul often impact US tech stocks ahead of the Wall Street opening, and Bitcoin has frequently traded in sync with AI-related equities. Despite SK Hynix later reporting a staggering 1242% surge in quarterly profit, its shares continued to fall, with both companies down roughly 33% and 41% over the past month. Analysts suggest the sell-off is driven by growing uncertainty over the pace of AI investment sustainability and rising competition from Chinese semiconductor firms, rather than weak chip demand. For crypto markets, this relationship is critical. Sentiment-driven sell-offs in these key tech stocks can spread to risk assets like Bitcoin. If investor interest in these chipmakers stabilizes, it could signal a return of risk appetite. Upcoming earnings from Samsung and major US tech giants like Microsoft and Meta will provide further clarity on whether this week's volatility is a temporary shift or the start of more significant market changes affecting Bitcoin's trajectory.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 07:01

Sliders from Samsung and SK Hynix — An Early Risk Indicator for Bitcoin Traders

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 07:01

To Hike or Not Tonight: Economists Unanimous on 'No', Markets Price in a 30% Chance

Federal funds futures are repricing ahead of the July FOMC decision, as traders pay a higher premium for the risk of a surprise rate hike or more hawkish signals. This contrasts with economists, where a Reuters survey of 104 analysts unanimously expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with 78 foreseeing no change through year-end. Yet, futures markets have priced in about a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. The core debate, especially under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, centers on how the Fed will respond to the oil price shock from Middle East tensions. The market is not necessarily predicting a hike tonight but is hedging against two tail risks: an immediate rate increase, or a hold combined with communication that seriously opens the door for a September hike. This hedging activity has driven up open interest in Fed funds futures. Analysts are divided on how to weight the oil price surge in the Fed's reaction function. Hawkish voices (e.g., BofA) worry that completely dismissing the price pressure could challenge the Fed's inflation credibility in Warsh's first major test. Dovish views (e.g., Citi) argue the shock is primarily supply-driven and that overreacting with rate hikes could unnecessarily hurt growth, unless clear signs of secondary inflation emerge. Warsh's new tenure amplifies policy path uncertainty, as markets lack a stable baseline for his communication style. This environment forces traders to price in a wider range of outcomes, explaining the divergence between unanimous economist forecasts and market hedging. The key focus will be on Warsh's post-meeting commentary. If he downplays the oil shock and stresses anchored long-term expectations, hawkish pricing may recede. If he emphasizes the risk of broader price spillovers and prioritizes returning to 2% inflation, the market will interpret this as reopening the door for a September hike. This would sustain support for the USD, keep pressure on JPY (testing intervention thresholds), and challenge risk assets like stocks and crypto through higher discount rates and weaker sentiment. The baseline remains no action in July, but the communication will determine how far this repricing extends.

marsbit07/29 04:06

To Hike or Not Tonight: Economists Unanimous on 'No', Markets Price in a 30% Chance

marsbit07/29 04:06

Bitcoin is Feverish Ahead of the Fed's Rate Decision. What to Expect from the Market

Bitcoin fell to around $63,000 during Asian trading hours on July 28 amid investor anxiety ahead of the US Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Analysts cited macroeconomic risks, weakness in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and an overvalued AI market as contributing factors. Major market maker Citadel forecasts a surprise quarter-point rate hike to combat inflation, contrary to the market consensus of a hold. Such a hike could pressure Bitcoin further, as higher rates make yield-bearing assets like US Treasuries more attractive than risk assets. Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin needs a sustained break above its 200-day moving average near $72,000 for a more positive outlook. Additionally, the delay of the US CLARITY Act, seen as a bullish catalyst, has pushed regulatory optimism to the fall. Despite recent ETF outflows, some market participants anticipate a market turnaround by autumn.

cryptonews.ru07/28 10:31

Bitcoin is Feverish Ahead of the Fed's Rate Decision. What to Expect from the Market

cryptonews.ru07/28 10:31

Bitcoin Traders Face $75 Million in Liquidations After Three Failed Attempts to Breach the $65,600 Mark

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility on Monday, with its price failing to hold above $65,500 after three unsuccessful attempts, leading to a drop to $64,336. This price action triggered the liquidation of over $75 million in leveraged positions within 24 hours, with nearly $45 million in short positions and around $30 million in long positions being wiped out. Initial price surges were linked to easing Middle East tensions, but the upward momentum stalled due to weak inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act, and a decision by a major institutional player (Strategy/MSTR) not to increase its Bitcoin holdings despite raising new capital. Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin's market cap remained around $1.3 trillion, and the cryptocurrency is poised to end July in positive territory after starting the month below $59,000.

cryptonews.ru07/27 19:20

Bitcoin Traders Face $75 Million in Liquidations After Three Failed Attempts to Breach the $65,600 Mark

cryptonews.ru07/27 19:20

Not AI, Not War: What the US Stock Market Should Worry About Is Japan?

Global markets may be underestimating a systemic risk from Japan. As the yen hits multi-decade lows and domestic asset appeal rises, the world's largest pension fund, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), faces policy pressure to repatriate substantial assets. Such a shift could pressure U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar. GPIF manages roughly $1.8 trillion, with about half invested overseas. Even a modest reallocation to Japan could boost yen demand and Japanese government bond buying, potentially raising U.S. yields and weakening the dollar. Unwinding of yen carry trades could further pressure risk assets. This potential move is driven by improving fundamentals in Japan: rising inflation, economic recovery, and narrowing yield gaps with the U.S. The yen's depreciation to levels not seen since 1986 also enhances domestic investment appeal. While markets currently price in limited risk, key indicators like the dollar-yen cross-currency basis swap are showing subtle shifts. A surge in hedging demand for yen appreciation could tighten liquidity and impact U.S. equities. Conversely, GPIF repatriation could benefit Japanese equities, which trade at a discount to U.S. markets and are driven by corporate governance reforms. However, persistent yen weakness remains a major hurdle for foreign investors' returns.

marsbit07/24 08:08

Not AI, Not War: What the US Stock Market Should Worry About Is Japan?

marsbit07/24 08:08

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