# Polymarket Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Polymarket", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

CFTC, US soldier accused of illegal Polymarket bet spar over interpretation of prediction markets

A US soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accused of using nonpublic information to make over $400,000 trading event contracts on prediction market Polymarket, is opposing the CFTC's attempt to file an amicus brief in his criminal fraud case. His lawyers argue the CFTC, which has its own stayed civil case against him, is improperly trying to influence the court rather than pursue its own action. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to charges related to trading on nonpublic information about a Venezuela operation. The case is cited by critics as an example of potential manipulation on prediction platforms.

cointelegraph2h ago

CFTC, US soldier accused of illegal Polymarket bet spar over interpretation of prediction markets

cointelegraph2h ago

Polymarket User Adds Over $800,000 to Market on Clarity Act

A user on Polymarket has placed a large bet exceeding $800,000 predicting that the U.S. CLARITY Act will not pass by the end of 2026. The trader, VelvetNova27, made the wager when the "No" outcome probability was at 77%. The position has already gained over $82,000 in value with more than four months remaining in the year. The CLARITY Act, intended to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, faces significant criticism from both the crypto industry and the banking sector. Despite ongoing amendments, the bill fails to satisfy key stakeholders. Critics include Coinbase's CEO, who has expressed frustration with legislative delays and hinted at moving business out of the U.S., and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, who is disappointed by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's support for the initiative. Market sentiment on Polymarket has shifted dramatically. While the probability of the act passing in 2026 exceeded 80% in February, it has consistently declined since May, dropping to 14% by late August. This downturn is attributed to the U.S. legislative recess and uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections.

cryptonews.ru3h ago

Polymarket User Adds Over $800,000 to Market on Clarity Act

cryptonews.ru3h ago

Insider Information About American Military May Be Leaked on Polymarket

According to a study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, activity on the Polymarket prediction platform may allow insider trading to become a signal that other traders and bots can copy. The research suggests that over 150 wallets on Polymarket may have traded on non-public information related to the U.S. military. Analysts examined all settled markets on May 5th, flagging "risky" bets—defined as wagers of at least $2,500 placed within an hour on outcomes with a 35% or lower probability. They identified 556 "orca" wallets, which often opened accounts, made successful risky bets on niche markets where insiders could have an advantage, then withdrew funds and disappeared. Among these, 152 wallets were notably successful on military and defense-related markets, earning a total of $8 million with an average win rate of 97.2%. The report notes that U.S. soldier Gannon C. Van Dyke, charged in April for alleged trading based on classified information, built his positions more slowly and was not among this top group. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are taking steps to prevent abuse, with Kalshi planning to collect employment information from traders seeking access to certain contracts potentially linked to insider information or manipulation.

cryptonews.ru08/20 20:31

Insider Information About American Military May Be Leaked on Polymarket

cryptonews.ru08/20 20:31

ACDC Identified 556 Polymarket Wallets, Allegedly Belonging to Insiders

A new report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) has identified 556 Polymarket wallets, labeled "Orcas," suspected of insider trading. These accounts allegedly place small, targeted bets on low-probability outcomes yet win over 75% of the time. Analyzing 78,496 high-risk bets (over $2,500 on odds of 35 cents or less), ACDC categorized bettors into Orcas, whales, bots, and small fish. While only 14% of high-odds bets win platform-wide, rates rise to 25% on political markets and 52% on military/defense markets. The report highlights that Orcas often place bets first on major military events, with whales and bots quickly copying, potentially broadcasting sensitive signals. Researchers estimate insider profits from military markets alone reached $9.3 million. ACDC argues this poses a national security risk, as blockchain transparency could allow foreign intelligence to act on these market movements. The organization concludes that banning the highest-risk market categories may be the only solution, citing recent insider trading cases involving a U.S. soldier and a Google engineer on Polymarket.

cryptonews.ru08/20 15:38

ACDC Identified 556 Polymarket Wallets, Allegedly Belonging to Insiders

cryptonews.ru08/20 15:38

CFTC Adds Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings Companies to its New Advisory Board

The CFTC's newly renamed Innovation Advisory Committee (formerly the Technology Advisory Committee) is holding its first meeting on August 20. The agenda will focus on crypto assets, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets. The committee's membership includes a significant number of executives from companies in these sectors, such as Tarek Mansour of Kalshi, Shane Coplan of Polymarket, and Jason Robins of DraftKings, as well as leaders from major crypto firms like Coinbase, Uniswap Labs, and Ripple. The meeting occurs amidst increased regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC, including recent actions and proposals related to event contracts and market maker programs. While the committee's role is purely advisory, it will provide a formal platform for major industry players to present their views on key regulatory challenges.

cryptonews.ru08/20 11:15

CFTC Adds Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings Companies to its New Advisory Board

cryptonews.ru08/20 11:15

Polymarket and Kalshi Give Signals But Do Not Guarantee a Predicted Outcome

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are becoming a significant source of information for investors. Their main advantage is that participants stake their own money on specific outcomes, allowing contract prices to be interpreted as market-assessed probabilities. For instance, a YES contract priced at $0.65 on Kalshi suggests an approximately 65% likelihood of an event occurring. However, this is not a pure probability, as it is influenced by liquidity, spreads, fees, capital constraints, and informational differences among participants. A key question arises: does a high probability for an event on these platforms imply that the bitcoin or broader crypto market will follow suit? The answer is no. Prediction markets and crypto markets serve different purposes: the former assesses the likelihood of specific events, while the latter allocates capital and determines asset prices. Betting on an event is not the same as betting on an asset. For example, a signal forecasting a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is relevant, but it may already be priced into crypto markets through futures, options, or spot positions. The crypto price is shaped by existing capital commitments, leverage, liquidity, and the need to close trades, not just expectations. While prediction markets are useful for aggregating information and have shown accuracy in events like political elections, they should not be viewed as direct trading signals for assets like bitcoin. Research involving millions of trades indicates that the calibration of probabilities varies by event category, time horizon, trade size, and platform. Therefore, these markets offer valuable supplementary data but do not guarantee corresponding asset price movements.

cryptonews.ru08/17 09:58

Polymarket and Kalshi Give Signals But Do Not Guarantee a Predicted Outcome

cryptonews.ru08/17 09:58

"Kalshi" Removes All Sports Event Options Amidst CFTC Investigation

"Kalshi" has removed all of its sports-related event options amid an investigation launched by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to an NPR report citing anonymous sources. Federal regulators are scrutinizing "mention markets," with sources indicating these markets are potentially highly susceptible to manipulation. A court order from Washington State's King County also compels Kalshi to cease marketing or offering contracts related to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, and mentions, citing violations of gambling laws and high fraud risks. The order prohibits Kalshi from advertising such bets to Washington consumers. This follows a high-profile incident where a former Trump teleprompter operator allegedly used advance access to speeches for mention market trades. Kalshi froze approximately $90,000 of his profits and reported the activity to the CFTC. The company, which has positioned itself as a "prediction market," is facing a complex and rapidly evolving legal landscape with differing state-level rulings on its contracts.

cryptonews.ru08/15 12:37

"Kalshi" Removes All Sports Event Options Amidst CFTC Investigation

cryptonews.ru08/15 12:37

The Value, Growth, and Risks of Prediction Markets

The article discusses the explosive growth and complex nature of prediction markets in the United States, focusing on their value, risks, and regulatory challenges. Key drivers include sports betting, which fueled a 1795% year-over-year trading volume increase in Q2 2026, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket dominating. These markets offer significant potential as superior hedging tools for businesses and more efficient price discovery mechanisms than traditional polls or derivatives for events like Fed rate decisions, elections, or GPU prices. They also serve as customer acquisition channels for platforms like Robinhood. However, major challenges persist. A central conflict exists between federal regulators (CFTC), which classify event contracts as derivatives under its jurisdiction, and state authorities, which view sports-related contracts as illegal gambling, leading to numerous lawsuits. There is significant consumer protection risk: data shows most retail users lose money to professional traders, platforms market high-risk products like parlays, and protections (e.g., age limits, addiction help) are weaker than in state-regulated sports betting. The "self-certification" process allows rapid contract launches but creates regulatory uncertainty. The author argues prediction markets are fundamentally "better markets" but currently fail to provide adequate consumer safeguards. Proposals include integrating protection mechanisms (cooling-off periods, position limits), aligning risk warnings with product risks, creating paths from speculation to long-term investing, and applying specific consumer protections and taxes to sports contracts. The piece concludes by urging stakeholders to address these issues before a potential regulatory backlash undermines the markets' legitimate utility.

marsbit08/15 05:17

The Value, Growth, and Risks of Prediction Markets

marsbit08/15 05:17

JPMorgan Terminates Banking Relationship with Polymarket Due to Regulatory Concerns: Report

JPMorgan Chase has terminated its banking relationship with prediction market platform Polymarket due to regulatory concerns, according to a Financial Times report. The bank notified Polymarket in October 2025 that it needed to find a new financial institution. Polymarket has since moved to an unnamed other lender. Despite ending the banking arrangement, JPMorgan maintains other business ties with Polymarket and is reportedly interested in a potential underwriting role if the platform pursues a public listing. Polymarket stated it continues to have a "close, active relationship" with the bank. Prediction markets like Polymarket are facing increased regulatory scrutiny globally. In the U.S., over a dozen states have taken legal action against Polymarket, rival platform Kalshi, or both, specifically regarding contracts on sporting events. Authorities in several other countries have also blocked or restricted access to the platform.

cryptonews.ru08/14 11:28

JPMorgan Terminates Banking Relationship with Polymarket Due to Regulatory Concerns: Report

cryptonews.ru08/14 11:28

JPMorgan Cuts Banking Ties with Polymarket Due to Regulatory Risks

JPMorgan Chase ended its banking relationship with the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket in October 2025 due to regulatory concerns, according to a Financial Times report citing sources. While the bank requested Polymarket find a new financial partner, the companies did not sever ties completely; JPMorgan reportedly remains interested in underwriting a potential future IPO for the platform. This move reflects a broader trend of increasing regulatory scrutiny on prediction markets globally. In the US, several states are challenging the legality of such platforms in court, while other countries have outright blocked access, classifying them as gambling rather than financial tools. Analysis suggests JPMorgan's decision aligns with traditional banks' general wariness. Past regulatory actions, including a $1.4 million CFTC fine against Polymarket in 2022, and a coinciding Congressional investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket and competitor Kalshi, likely influenced the bank's move to mitigate reputational risk. The situation raises questions about whether JPMorgan's interest in a future IPO signals eventual legitimacy for prediction markets or is merely a way to secure future fees while avoiding current operational risks.

cryptonews.ru08/14 11:20

JPMorgan Cuts Banking Ties with Polymarket Due to Regulatory Risks

cryptonews.ru08/14 11:20

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